Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM


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