Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 021742
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE DAY AND EVENING IN REGARD
TO DETERMINING WHERE/WHEN/HOW LIKELY RAINFALL WILL BE FOR THE
TRI-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOME. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS THERE. DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE BEST LIFT WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED WEAKER LIFT THIS EVENING BEHIND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM TODAY SO WILL KEEP SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL GOING AS A RESULT.

HAVE YET TO REALLY LOOK INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BUT LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE
PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A FRONT THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO.

MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING IS TO WHAT EXTENT STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTH MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FA. ACCORDING TO
PROJECTIONS THE MAIN PATH WILL TRACK THROUGH MCK AREA SO WILL HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THERE WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH WHERE
CINH VALUES ARE GREATER.

POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING MCS ARE PROBLEMATIC.
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR BEHIND THE MCS. THIS
MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
THE SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH LOOKS GOOD SO WILL KEEP HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING POPS
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
HIGH AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  ALSO,
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40KTS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY THROUGH MIDDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW STORMS. HIGHER CINH
VALUES SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SHOULD INITIATE SOME
STORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THAT THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM ADEQUATE FOR THIS EVENT DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S TODAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WARMING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CANADA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ONTO THE
PLAINS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ON MONDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE DRIER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S. THE AREA WILL THEN SEE AROUND A 15 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS FOR KGLD
WILL BE ALL OVER THE COMPASS THROUGH THE TAF SO KEPT THE DIRECTION
VARIABLE. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE A STORM COMPLEX DURING THE MORNING
FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STORM
COMPLEX...WHICH MAY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO NOT IMPACT KGLD.  VISIBILITIES
MAY DECLINE IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS WITH THE STORM COMPLEX.
WINDS COULD INCREASE AS WELL. FOR KMCK NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



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