Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200251

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
851 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Issued at 851 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Update to forecast to adjust for Severe T-storm Watch cancellation.
Have continued mention of some isolated/scattered showers/storms
thru 06z...tapering off from west to east. No other changes at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The short term concerns are focused on the thunderstorms that are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening. While isolated
storms are possible early this afternoon as temperatures rise
into the 90s as the atmosphere become more unstable, storms are
expected to become scattered mainly north of Interstate 70 late in
the afternoon and evening mainly between 03Z-06Z as a weak mid
and upper level short wave in association with a surface trough
sweeps across the central plains. A few storms could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds.

Storms will move out of the eastern sections of the forecast area
after 06Z with dry conditions expected through the day on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The extended period looks to be active over the Tri-State region.
The upper level flow pattern will change over the period but an
abundance of moisture will continue to be pumped up into the area
feeding any type of precipitation. Beginning on Sunday night, the
region is under a ridge with southwest flow. There could be some
lingering non-severe storms over the eastern portion of the region
during the evening.

Monday shows a shift in upper level flow as a trough moves far north
of the CWA but still shifts the flow to more of a northwest one.
This brings monsoonal moisture from the desert southwest. There are
chances for strong to severe storms due to favorable instability

Tuesday will likely be the driest day during the period as a ridge
begins to move over the region. Come Wednesday, there shows to be
some southwest flow into the region bringing in moisture again. So
storms are possible.

Thursday through Saturday are looking to be the most active and show
stronger signals for severe weather. This is due to a shortwave
trough moving over the region Thursday, Friday brings northwest flow
and then Saturday has continued northwest flow and a shortwave.

Temperatures during the period will primarily stay in the 80s, with
Monday seeing the low 90s over some locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Both taf sites will see VFR conditions thru the forecast period.
There will be VCTS thru 06z Sunday that may affect the region that
may bring about MVFR/IFR conditions if storms pass. For now no
mention of any reduction due to uncertainty and track. Winds for
KGLD...SSW 10-15kts...and for KMCK...S 10-20kts becoming ESE
around 10kts after 06z Sunday.




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