Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 262049
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
249 PM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
After a period of warm weather and the emergence of new spring
vegetation across the area, temperatures around freezing are
expected again after midnight tonight through the early morning
hours on Thursday. Skies will clear out from west to east this
afternoon before more clouds can move in from the west late this
evening. With a period of mostly clear skies and light winds
after sunset, expect temperatures in the lower to mid 30s
overnight with areas of frost developing. Have issued a frost
advisory for those areas along and east of a line from Stratton,
Nebraska to Hill City, Kansas between 1 AM and 9 AM Thursday
morning as a result.
High clouds begin to increase from west to east overnight tonight
ahead of a short wave trough that will be moving east of the
Rockies and across the high plains on Thursday along with a
surface low that deepens over the SE Colorado/NE New
Mexico/Panhandle region. An area of precipitation is expected to
develop north of a warm frontal boundary that is pushed north
as the surface low begins to move across Texas and the short wave
trough aloft moves through the central high plains. A few
thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
As temperatures approach freezing over eastern Colorado after
midnight Thursday night, there is the potential for a rain and
snow mix over eastern Colorado early Friday morning. Rain is
expected to continue across the forecast area on Friday with rain
changing to snow Friday night mainly across eastern Colorado.
Any snow accumulations Friday night are expected to be light.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
The main focus of the extended period will be the chances for
precipitation and colder temperatures Thursday night through Sunday
Thursday night: Thunderstorms and rain will be widespread through
the evening. Some storms could be strong, but not expecting anything
severe at this time. May see some of the rain change to snow in the
pre-dawn hours across western portions of the CWA. No snow
Friday-Friday night: The models have come into better agreement in
regards to this weekend`s system. A strengthening closed low will be
dropping south from Wyoming into the Four Corners region and will
then be moving across Kansas from the southwest to northeast as it
deepens. There will be rain chances across the region beginning
Friday around noon lasting through the evening. There could be a few
rumbles of thunder in Yuma County during the afternoon. Rain changes
to snow or a rain/snow mix from west to east for the most of the
region overnight. Heaviest amounts of snow are expected along and
west of Highway 27 where some blowing snow may also occur through
the early portions of the morning.
Saturday-Sunday: Areas along and south of the I-70 corridor will see
the best chance of snow in the morning. There will be periods of
snow, rain and snow, and rain throughout the day across the CWA.
The question will be how much we warm up during the afternoon. 12Z
GFS soundings show the possibility of precip staying mostly snow
through the entire day west of Highway 27 which would mean higher
snow totals than what are currently forecasted. Precip changes
back to snow during the overnight with the axis of heaviest precip
shifting along and southeast of a Norton-Gove line as the upper
low begins to pull off to the northeast. Am expecting lighter
amounts than what will occur Friday night. Slight chances of
precip linger for the eastern half of the CWA until near sundown
Current forecasted snow amounts (surely to change by the weekend)
call for areas along and south of I-70 to receive 2-4 inches, with
portions of our Kit Carson and Cheyenne(CO) counties seeing upwards
of 5 inches. Areas north of I-70 are forecasted to receive anywhere
from a few tenths to 2 inches.
As for temperatures, the entire area will see below average temps
from Thursday through Sunday night. Saturday will be the coldest day
with highs struggling to get into the 40s. MOS guidance is showing
temperatures below 28 degrees for portions of our CO counties.
Monday-Wednesday: Temperatures warm back to near normal levels
through the period. There looks to be a chance of rain Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night as a positively tilted shortwave
approaches the area.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Wed Apr 26 2017
Vfr conditions are expected through the period. North winds will
be near 16 knots with gusts to near 24 knots until late in the
afternoon. At that time the winds will become north around 10
knots before becoming light and variable a few hours later. After
midnight the winds will shift to the east to southeast 5 to 15
KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ003-004-016.
NE...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ080-081.