Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 242114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.

TONIGHT THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE...TURNING TO THE WEST BY
SUNRISE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.

CHRISTMAS DAY THE LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNSET.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY...AND WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY WARM INTO THE LOW 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.  FURTHER NORTH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES NORTH OF THE STATE
LINE.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  OVER FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE FROM THE
SURFACE UPWARD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT SATURATING UP TO THE -10C
LEVEL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.  WITH NO ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN AND SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT PRESENT...EXPECT THERE TO BE
FROZEN FLECKS OF DRIZZLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST. OVER FAR
NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY ICE CRYSTALS WILL DEVELOP SO WILL HAVE THE
PRECIP. AS ALL SNOW.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY WITH
WITH WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. DRY WEATHER AND NIL POPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 20S WITH SOME LOWER 30S ON
SUNDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE TEENS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY TURN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE EVENING. THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. DUE TO KMCK BEING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FJS
AVIATION...JTL


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