Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
242 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term period.
A weak embedded shortwave trough may be enough for a few isolated
showers to move out of the Nebraska panhandle tonight and across
the northeast portion of the forecast area. Low level moisture is
lacking and it may turn out to be just virga, but will carry
slight chance pops for measurable precipitation for the overnight
hours. On Monday, the northwest flow weakens a bit as the ridge
nudges eastward across the Rockies. With the rising heights aloft,
not expecting any precipitation. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The extended period begins with a subtle troughing pattern over much
of the northern Plains with high pressure situated just off the
coast of northern California. This trough will become more
pronounced as we head through the day Thursday and into Friday.
Frontogenesis will take place in the northern Rockies, moving
southeastward into the central Plains late Friday and into Saturday.
There is a bit of disagreement between the global models as well as
the ensembles at this time regarding timing of this cold front. In
either case, we are looking at much cooler temperatures across the
Tri-State area as we head into the Friday through Sunday time frame.
The general consensus would delay the front slightly, meaning
Friday`s temperatures may need to be adjusted slightly warmer in the
upcoming updates.

With regards to precipitation, a shortwave will traverse the region
with plenty of instability in place across the Tri-State area. The 0-
1km as well as 0-6km shear should be high enough to allow for at
least a chance of isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening. The cold front will approach the region on Friday with
another chance of thunderstorms mainly late in the day and overnight
into Saturday. Slight chc PoPs will linger into Sunday; however,
the post-frontal environment will not support severe


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. KMCK will have some showers
nearby for the first hour or so of the TAF before the showers
shift to the southeast. Otherwise winds will be fairly light,
becoming north in the morning behind a surface trough then
gradually turn to the south through the rest of the TAF.




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