Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 220851
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017
Issued at 1021 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017
Update to forecast issued to mainly adjust temps based on last
few hourlies. Winds have shifted to more northerly as low to the
south continues pushing eastward into Oklahoma. This movement
also will continue to keep any precip away from the CWA...so have
kept trend with no pops after 06z.
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017
Upper level trough is currently deepening over the four
corners region with diffluent flow aloft spreading over the
Southern Plains towards SW Kansas. A surface low is centered over
the Oklahoma Panhandle with easterly gradient north of this over
This afternoon-Tonight: As upper low moves across the
southern plains a weak front or surface trough axis will shift
over our CWA.Track of upper low and position of main surface low
places main axis of forcing and better moisture advection well
south of our CWA.Low level flow will actually pull drier air into
the region as large scale forcing and mid-upper level moisture
increases. This limits potential for measurable precipitation. I
kept slight chance PoPs across the southern half of our CWA in
place mainly for evening period to cover the minimum potential.
Confidence in more than sprinkles/flurries/virga is low, and any
measurable precipitation would only amount to a few hundredths of
liquid equivalent. Radiational cooling will be limited tonight as
a result of increasing mid-upper level cloud cover, so overnight
lows may remain near 30 (particularly in our southeast).
Sunday: Behind upper level system air mass will be slightly
cooler, but there may be little change in high temps due to
clearing skies and good mixing. BL winds do increase and will
support daytime gusts in the 25-35 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 149 AM MST Sun Jan 22 2017
The extended period is expected to be tranquil as ridge of high
pressure builds into the western States and a deep trough prevails
in the east. A transverse shortwave will traverse the outer
periphery of the large, eastern trough as we head into Friday and
Saturday; however, the current guidance is showing no indications of
precipitation chances. Both the ECMWF and GFS continue to keep the
CWA situated between the eastern trough and the western ridge
through Saturday, meaning a dry and tranquil forecast through next
weekend with a slow warming trend as Saturday approaches.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017
Conditions...VFR with mainly sct-bkn120-250 mix.
Winds........NNW around 10kts thru 02z Monday then becoming WSW.
Gusts to 20kts possible for both sites from 14z-22z Sunday.