Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290806
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

As of 2 pm CDT, 1 pm MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
quite blue, devoid of any cloud cover to speak of. Temperatures are
in the mid 70s to low 80s with warmest temperatures observed along
the Colorado border. Winds are light and variable across the region.
As the surface, high pressure extended from southern Canada south
across the Great Plains. The leading edge of the surface high, in
the form of a backdoor cold front, is moving through the High Plains
as we speak. Aloft, a large upper level low is diving south from the
Great Lakes to the Ohio River Valley. Another area of low pressure
was located over southern California. Sandwiched in-between is a
ridge of high pressure over the High Plains. This ridge, in addition
to the surface high and abundant dry air, have led to precipitation-
free (and cloud-free) weather today.

Clear and dry weather conditions are forecast to persist through
tomorrow and beyond. The surface high begins to retreat east
tomorrow and a lee trough should form along the Rockies. This will
lead to south winds becoming dominant and becoming gusty by late
tomorrow morning. Temperatures should be cooler, yet still
seasonable, tomorrow as a result of the weak frontal passage and
gusty winds.

Fog development is possible over south central Nebraska tonight
according to some high-res guidance members. Currently do not have
enough confidence to place a mention of this in the forecast as the
majority of guidance members do not indicate fog in southwest
Nebraska. That is about the only thing to watch.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 AM MDT Thu Sep 29 2016

High pressure ridge will move across the Plains on Sunday with a
deep trough and associated area of low pressure approaching from the
west. Dry conditions will prevail on Sunday with above normal
temperatures as the ridge is pushed off to the east. The low will
move across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies as we head
into Monday with Moisture levels increasing as the 850mb winds
continue out of the south to southwest. The cold front associated
with the low will approach the western portions of the CWA on
Tuesday by around midday with PoPs increasing mainly for areas east
of the Kansas/Colorado border as the front pushes across the area
through the course of the day. There will be marginal instability
and CAPE in the eastern half of the CWA with decent low level shear
Tuesday afternoon and evening thus will need to monitor closely for
the possibility of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

The front will move through the remainder of the CWA overnight with dry
weather expected after sunrise on Wednesday. Highs will top out in
the upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Wednesday behind the front. We
could see another round of patchy frost Wednesday night as
temperatures drop into the upper 30s with dew points in the upper
20s to near 30 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Light
winds overnight will increase Thursday afternoon from the
southeast around surface high pressure centered near the Great
Lakes.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024


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