Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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716
FXUS63 KGLD 012014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS/CUMULUS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AT 50 DEGREES. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10-20
MPH...GUSTING 35 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA...ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVEMENT
EAST. AS THIS HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION COULD SPREAD OVER LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF US-40. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS...IT WILL BE LIGHT
IN NATURE...AMOUNTING TO LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. THE WEATHER
CONCERN OF HIGHEST INTEREST IS THE CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE. NEAR
TO SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LOWS
LESS THAN 36 DEGREES. WITH WINDS DECREASING...FROST DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST GENERALLY WEST OF A NORTON KANSAS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE.
A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST COLORADO. BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE PASSED ALONG FROM THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NOT NEEDED BECAUSE THE TRI-STATE REGION
IS NOT QUITE IN THE GROWING SEASON. RECENT SNOWFALL FURTHER
COMPLICATES THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. FOR
THESE REASONS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING BUT
DID MENTION PATCHY/AREAS FROST IN THE FORECAST.

FOR TOMORROW...MUCH WARMER AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S. LOCAL OBSERVERS INDICATE SNOW HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY MELTED SO
AFTER TODAY`S WARMER AND BREEZY WEATHER...DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY
IMPACTS FROM A REMAINING SNOW FIELD. NO PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AMPLIFIED RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WENT WITH DRY POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND STAYED WITH SLGT CHC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEEP H5 TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY HOWEVER SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GFS
INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A MORE
POSITIVE SOLUTION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
BETWEEN THE TWO AND WE WILL SEE POPS INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT WE COULD SEE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
THETA E BOUNDARY THAT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
PRESENCE OF DECENT CAPE...1200 TO 1850 J/KG...AND LOW TO MODEST
SHEAR. AT THIS POINT THE GUIDANCE IS VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO
GLOBAL SOLUTIONS BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE JUST
TO THE EAST. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT/BREAK UP. IN FACT...HOLES IN
THE DENSE CLOUD COVER ARE NOTED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS IS
THE RESULT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. TONIGHT`S
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT WITH ALL PRECIPITATION/POOR
CIGS REMAINING WELL SOUTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



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