Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

CLEARING HAS BEGUN AND THE CAP HAS ERODED QUICKLY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...THETA-E AXIS AND INSTABILITY AXIS ARE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF MY AREA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO APPROACHING.
STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP. WOULD EXPECT THAT TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR TO HOUR AND A HALF WITH STORM
EXPECTED OVER MY AREA BY 20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY PRODUCING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO/SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING)
WILL EMERGE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS AROUND
18Z THEN EAST INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA WHERE THEY`RE AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20KTS THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA LOOKS GOOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON WHERE DRYLINE SETS UP. WILL
AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND DOWNWARD MOTION MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS THINKING THE MORNING
HOURS APPEAR TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE AREA. WITH BREEZY/NEAR BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INSTABILITY IS LESS THEN PRIOR DAYS
AND SEVERE THREAT MUCH LOWER IF AT ALL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOW 50S EAST.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STABLE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF FORMATION OF TRW THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN THE BKN020-025 RANGE BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT. BETWEEN 20Z-23Z VCTS FOR BOTH SITES WITH POTENTIAL
TRW BRINGING 3SM IN HEAVY RAIN/FOG ANY TIME BETWEEN 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND 04Z TONIGHT. LATER TIME FOR KMCK AS THEY WILL SEE
LOWER CLOUDS THIN OUT LAST. BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...TRANSITION TO VFR
AS RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES DIMINISH. BY 11Z-13Z FRIDAY SCT025 SCT250.
WINDS SSE 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-06Z THEN SHIFTING TO THE NNW
10-145KTS. VRB25-35KTS POSSIBLE IN TRW TIMEFRAME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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