000
FXUS63 KGLD 080759
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR A RELATIVELY MINOR RAIN-TO-SNOW EVENT. ON
THE BROAD SCALE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...WITH
THE REAL COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND DECENT SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT A LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW EVENT IS
IN STORE. DESPITE SNOW TONIGHT TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO NEAR 50
AGAIN TOMORROW.

TODAY...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SKY COVER HAS
BEEN A CHALLENGE TODAY AS CLOUDS CLEARED OUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFTER AN OVERCAST MORNING...BUT STILL
EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE BEST MOISTURE
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MOVES INTO
THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED UP BEYOND MOST GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HEATING...BUT THIS WILL
TURN AROUND SOON AS THE COLD AIR IS KNOCKING OUR DOORSTEPS WITH KLBF
REPORTING SNOW AS OF 18Z. DUE TO THE WARMTH AND DEEPER MIXING WINDS
WILL BE STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THIS HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST WINDS BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION IS A
CHALLENGE WITH...THE LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW NOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA WHICH WILL MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE RAIN TO
SNOW IN EASTERN COLORADO MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH THE LATER POTION OF
THE SYSTEM...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN FOR EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST KANSAS...BEFORE QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...EVENING WILL BEING WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH THINGS WINDING DOWN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 WHERE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE PREDICTED...AND
SNOWFALL COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF
/LIQUID/ AMOUNTS FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ONE TO TWO INCHES IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70...ELSEWHERE A
COATING TO AN INCH IS EXPECTED...WITH AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
PROBABLY NOT SEEING MORE THAN A HALF INCH. SNOW SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
OF AN ISSUE ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPS TODAY RESULTING IN
WARMER SURFACES...AND WITH AMOUNTS LIGHT AND TIMING POST-DINNER
TIME THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE MINOR. AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS WILL COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
POSSIBLY BELOW 20 IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 50 ON SATURDAY UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SNOW FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
ARE LESS THAN AN INCH...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN COLORADO. WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SINCE NO EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE SHOWN IN THE MODELS IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM THE
UPPER 40S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY. PERHAPS A BIT
BREEZY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AND DEEP MIXING
OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
MENTION OF SNOW HAS BEEN TAKEN OUT OF BOTH THE CURRENT MCK AND GLD
TAFS SINCE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION AND
THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MVFR CONDITIONS AT GLD WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 08Z WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID DAY. AFTER
02Z...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AT MCK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY 14Z. AFTER 00Z...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART