Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261739
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE AROUND THE
AREA WITH DNR SOUNDING INDICATING 13.2C AT H8 WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO
INVERSION STRENGTH AT DDC AND LBF. ONE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
UPPER LEVEL PROFILES WAS WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE PROFILE. BOTH
LBF AND DNR SUGGEST THAT DEEP MIXING WOULD NOT LEAD TO A
NOTICABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AS MIXING RATIOS DO NOT CHANGE A LOT
IN LOWEST 2 KM OF ATMOSPHERE. FURTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...POCKET OF
DRIER AIR AROUND H85 MAY ALLOW FOR A DRAMATIC DROP IN AFTERNOON
TDS. SO FAR...GOES PW PRODUCT NOT REALLY SHOWING MUCH OF A
DIFFERENCE IN TOTAL MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE CWA AND GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SFC FLOW AM PUTTING MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS LBF/BOU TYPE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/MID TO
UPPER 20 DEWPOINTS AND GUSTY WINDS FIRE WX WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH DAYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS. EVEN
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN BONE DRY AND NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

THURSDAY...CLOUDINESS INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FRIDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE  FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS
CHANGE ANYTHING OVER TO LIGHT RAIN. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE THEN SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD FREEZING. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

SATURDAY...DECREASING CLOUDINESS WITH FORECAST AREA IN BETWEEN
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OFF THE
CALIFORNIA/MEXICO COAST. LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS
REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SO NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED
FORECAST PROCEDURE. HIGHS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 40S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE FOR
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C
TO -12C WHILE THE GFS SHOWING +11C TO +13C. NO CHANGES MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL GO WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS
AND AROUND 30 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS
AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL LLWS AROUND MCK
AS WINDS INCREASE TO THE 20-25KTS RANGE AT BASE OF INVERSION WHICH
WILL BE AROUND 100 FEET OF THE SURFACE. IF WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE A PERIOD WHERE LLWS THRESHOLDS BEING MET. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
AT THIS POINT THOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM



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