Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121645
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief period of near critical fire weather conditions late
  this morning.

- Conditional potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm in
  eastern portions of the area (mainly Norton/Graham counties)
  late Wednesday afternoon.

- Accumulating wet snow possible across portions of eastern
  Colorado late Wed night and Thu, mainly at higher elevations
  in far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties, where
  hazardous travel conditions associated with heavy snow and
  breezy (25-35 mph) north winds are possible during the day on
  Thu. This includes portions of the I-70 corridor, mainly west
  of Stratton, CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 500 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Overview: Shortwave energy moving ashore the PAC NW this
morning will dig southeastward through the Intermountain West
today-tonight, amplifying an upper level trough over the western
CONUS. Guidance suggests that additional shortwave energy
(presently approaching Vancouver Island, BC) digging SSE into
WA/ID this aft-eve will abruptly halt (tonight) and track due
southward through NV Wed-Wed night.. stalling over the Desert
Southwest (southern CA/AZ) as a cut-off low on Thu-Fri.

Today: Progressive shortwave energy over eastern CO at 09Z..
and an associated SFC-H85 low over far western KS.. will track
eastward across the Tri-State area this morning. A brief period
of breezy (15-30 mph) NNW-NW winds on the western periphery of
the departing SFC-H85 low late this morning (~15-18Z) will
rapidly diminish during the early afternoon.. becoming
light/variable by sunset this evening. Expect highs ranging from
the lower 60s (northeast CO) to lower 70s (south and east of
Goodland).

Tonight: Low-level flow will shift to the SE in response to
upstream pressure falls /lee cyclone development/ in Colorado..
assoc/w an amplifying upper level trough over the western CONUS.
A thick veil of cirrus will envelope the region late this
evening and overnight.. as upper level flow backs to the SW and
strengthens. With extensive cirrus, expect relatively warmer
lows.. ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Wednesday: A pronounced/deepening lee cyclone invof the CO-OK-
KS border at 12Z will track ENE-NE into central KS during the
afternoon. Convection allowing guidance, recent runs of the
HRRR, in particular.. suggest that isolated deep convection may
develop invof the surface low triple-point during the late
afternoon (~22-23Z).. perhaps as far west as Hill City and
Norton, KS.. where a narrow, west-east oriented corridor of
richer low-level moisture (surface dewpoints 40-50F, H85
dewpoints ~5C) may result in modest diurnal destabilization
(500-1000 J/km MLCAPE).. and forcing may be favorably augmented
by DPVA assoc/w shortwave energy (rounding the base of the
amplifying western CONUS trough Wed morning) ejecting ENE-NE
across the Central Plains. Whether or not convection develops in
the GLD CWA will highly depend upon a variety of factors,
including [1] the precise evolution/track of the lee cyclone,
[2] the magnitude and western extent of richer low-level
moisture, [3] coverage/extent of mid-upper level cloud cover
(impact on diurnal heating) and [4] evolution of aforementioned
shortwave energy rounding the base of the western CONUS trough
Wed morning. With the above in mind.. expect a conditional
potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm over portions of
northwest KS (mainly north of I-70 and east of Hwy 83) late Wed
afternoon.

Wed night-Thu night: Guidance continues to indicate that
moderate to heavy precipitation will develop in the lee of the
Rockies late Wed night into Thu (mainly along the Colorado Front
Range and Palmer Divide).. as numerous shortwaves progress
around the E and NE periphery of a stalled upper low over the
Desert Southwest. Significant uncertainty exists with regard to
the eastern extent of precipitation. Recent guidance (00-06Z
GFS and 00Z ECMWF) suggest that the majority of precipitation
may remain west of the GLD CWA. Relatively warm thermal profiles
/absence of an Arctic airmass/ suggest that precipitation type
will be rate-driven in nature. At this time, heavy wet snow is
anticipated to be confined to higher elevations of the Palmer
Divide.. e.g. far western Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties in CO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

High pressure near the surface is set to arrive Friday over the
Tri- State area bringing an end to the rain and snow from the
mid-week system. The upper closed low over the Western CONUS is
expected to sink further south to remain nearly stationary and
centered over the Las Vegas. As the surface high pushes over the
area, precipitation chances of around 20% and less over Eastern
Colorado will taper off from north to south prior to sunset.
Little to no additional accumulation is currently forecast for
Friday. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s to mid 50s by
the afternoon with overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s.
Depending on how much snow falls and how far east it extends,
temperatures could be a few degrees cooler.

Saturday the upper low will remain over the Las Vegas area
while a cold front moves south across the Great Plains. Outside
of winds becoming northerly with gusts of 20-30 mph after
frontal passage, the area is expected to see little impact from
the front. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the upper
40s to lower 60s Saturday afternoon with overnight lows in the
20s. Dry conditions are expected through the end of the period
with the trough axis extending from the Great Lakes moving over
the area on Sunday and the closed low remains over Arizona and
New Mexico. The tight gradient over the area from the northern
trough will create breezy conditions across the area Sunday
morning through the early evening with gusts to 35 mph out of
the north to northwest. Tranquil conditions continue on Monday
as there is not much change in the overall pattern. Mild
temperatures are also expected to continue over the weekend into
early next week with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Sunday
and widespread 50s on Monday. Overnight lows may fall into the
20s both nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1043 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period as low
pressure begins to trek eastward from Colorado. For now broken
mid clouds will be present, but chances will increase for
showers to develop after 18z. Winds, north-northwest around
10-20kts but backing west by 23z and eventually east-southeast
around 10kts from 01z Wednesday onward.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period as low
pressure begins to trek eastward from Colorado with a mix of
mid/high clouds. Winds west-northwest around 10-15kts through
01z Wednesday, then light/variable. By 14z, northeast around
10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BV
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN


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