Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
656 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Issued at 656 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Visibilities with fog have consistently been above 1 SM and the
dense fog advisory has been dropped as a result.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

With dry conditions and warming temperatures through the short
term period, the primary concern in the near term is timing the
dissipation of fog across the eastern sections of the forecast
area this morning as high pressure moves into the region.

Short wave ridging moves across the High Plains today and Monday
while a short wave trough moves east of the Rockies and across the
High Plains Tuesday night with another weaker short wave ridge to
follow on Wednesday. Surface high pressure moves across the
region today with a deepening lee trough along the Front Range on
Monday. The lee surface trough moves east ahead of a weak cold
front that moves across the forecast area Tuesday night in
association with the upper trough. The cycle of surface high
pressure moving through ahead of a deepening lee surface trough
repeats on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

Breezy and mostly dry weather will dominate the extended period.
Zonal flow will prevail at the H5 level Wednesday and Thursday as
a ridge flattens and pushes eastward. Upper flow will be
westerly. Dry conditions are expected both days. A fast-moving
cold front will move through the region on Friday, bringing a very
brief chance of showers or mixed precipitation that will remain
mainly north of Interstate 70. The best chances for precipitation
will be between 12Z and 18Z Friday along and trailing the theta-e
axis associated with the front. Breezy west to northwest winds
will follow the front. Westerly flow aloft will shift to
northwesterly behind the front and will prevail through at least


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

GLD will remain VFR with a few mid level clouds through the day
and into the evening. there is a possibility of low clouds
developing shortly before sunrise with MVFR conditions due to
ceilings possible after 10Z.

MCK will start out LIFR, but should transition rapidly to VFR
around 14Z as a low ceiling moves across the area and then
dissipates following sunrise. VFR conditions will continue
through the remainder of the day and evening with a transition
through MVFR to IFR due to low ceilings between 10-12Z early
Monday morning.




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