Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 180601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.