Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Across the forecast area this morning...temperatures are ranging
from the mid 40s thru the mid 50s under a veil of thin high clouds.
Winds are light and variable as region still seeing transition of
surface ridge to the ESE.

For today...with high pressure continuing to shift out over the
Central/Southern expect variable winds to begin to shift
to a southerly direction. This in turn will allow for increased WAA
into the entire CWA. The result will have the area seeing near to
above normal temps for highs.

The rest of the forecast period will continue similar trend. Surface
ridge will remain to our east. H5/H7 ridging over the southern
portion of the country...w/ models bringing an upper low eastward
over the northern tier states. Continued WAA over the area will
allow for increased temp trend thru Tuesday...aided by strong
southerly gradient. By late Monday on into Tuesday night...a lee-
side trough will develop over the Front Range and shift east into
the Plains on Tuesday. The remnants of this trough will linger over
the region into Tuesday night. The result of this trough and its
remnants will give the area a chance for rw/trw...especially Tuesday

For temps...Today will have upper 80s across the area...but increase
to the lower to mid 90s for Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will
range mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Some mid to upper 50s possible
Tuesday night as the eastward movement of the lee-side trough will
allow for surface ridging and cooler air off the Rockies.

Will continue to monitor for potential record lows this morning w/
ridge cresting over the area. The current records are as follows:

Hill City KS    50 degrees     set last set in 2009
McCook NE       48 degrees     set in 1950
Goodland KS     46 degrees     set in 1964
Colby KS        46 degrees     set in 1964

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Cooler and wetter conditions will prevail on Wednesday in the wake
of a cold front that will push across the region Tuesday night. PoPs
will be elevated through the early to middle afternoon hours before
the system clears the area. A mostly dry day will be in store on
Thursday with a few late day thunderstorms working into the far west
and northwest portions of the CWA in advance of the next H5 trough.
PoPs increase through the nighttime hours Thursday into Friday as
the trough digs in across the central High Plains. There is a bit of
disagreement between the global models with the GFS outlining a
stronger and faster system compared to the ECMWF which develops the
system more slowly. Both solutions agree that the system will exit
the region as we head through Saturday with PoPs diminishing from
west to east through the day.

Temperatures will be cooler than average Wednesday through Friday
with daytime highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees and lows in the
lower to middle 50s. A rebound into the lower to middle 80s is
expected Saturday with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions for both sites thru forecast period. Winds mainly
SSW 10-20kts with KMCK seeing SSE 02z-09z Monday. There will be
LLWS SW at 30kts...02z-06z for KGLD and 02z-09z for KMCK.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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