Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SNOWFALL IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH MORE ACCUMULATION. SO WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEWER MODEL DATA IS CONFIRMING WHAT RECENT OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWING WITH THE DECREASING TREND OF THE SNOW. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RED WILLOW...DECATUR AND
NORTON COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

HAVE RECENTLY COMPLETED A COUPLE OF UPDATES. HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH WINDS BELOW CRITERIA. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKING ON TRACK. HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS TO REFLECT THE
TRENDS SEEN ON OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOING FINE WITH EXPECTED LIFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EASTERN END OF THE ADVISORY MAY NOT GET TOO MUCH MORE SNOW BUT WILL
KEEP IT WITH THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF SNOW COMBINED WITH WHAT HAS
ALREADY AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL US WITH TWO DISTINCT H5/H7
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE FIRST
CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED THE H5/H7 LOW NO OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA...RESPONSIBLE FOR DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW THAT FORMED
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATE
WITH A SECOND CLOSED H7 LOW AND H5 TROUGH DEEPENING OVER WESTERN
COLORADO.

REGARDING WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WINDS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO APPROACH CRITERIA THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT TIMES. THE PLAN IS TO HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING WIND
ADVISORY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND PROBABLY CANCEL THE
ADVISORY BEFORE 00Z.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO OUR CWA TODAY/TONIGHT. THE DEFORMATION
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRANSITION NORTH AND EAST...WITH MAIN IMPACT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WINDING DOWN AROUND 00Z. I COULD SEE US CANCELING
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY EARLY (00Z-03Z) AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA MET UP NORTH WITH THE 2ND UPPER LOW. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE ADVISORY (KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE CO) HAVE
AVOIDED THE BRUNT OF THIS FIRST WAVE...HOWEVER THE SECOND
CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND THIS IS WHEN THESE LOCATIONS
MAY SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT. CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY HIGHER FOR KIT
CARSON/CHEYENNE CO TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING THAN
SHERMAN. SHERMAN/WALLACE/GREELEY COULD BE CLOSE BASED ON LATEST
MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
WALLACE/GREELEY...OR CANCEL SHERMAN AT THIS POINT. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING IN THE NORTH AND THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH MAYBE SNOW LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY IN
THE FAR SOUTH.

REGARDING ANTICIPATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER MODERATE-HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THIS EVENING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COLORADO COUNTIES. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL CONTINUE BRING BLOWING SNOW
CHANCES AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AROUND 03Z.

LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY TEMPS...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY WITH SUB
FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
IN THE 23-25F ALREADY BEING REPORTED. TOO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO
ISSUE FROST/FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS CONSIDERING CLIMATE NORMS FOR LAST
FROST/FREEZE. AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME MONDAY...HOWEVER
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND FLATTENS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATES WILL WARM AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY DURING THAT
TIME. BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGIONS...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT BETWEEN FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN AT KMCK AND WILL SOON FOLLOW AT KGLD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE GUSTY WINDS LATER ON TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY AROUND MID MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER






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