Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191720
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Forecast focus will be temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a
possibility of Thunderstorms developing late Wednesday and
Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the region.

Zonal flow persists across the northern tier of states through
mid-week.  High pressure aloft over the southern plains expands
across portions of the central high plains region and central
plains states as group of low pressure centers off Baja track
around the high and begin moving into the southwest U.S. by late
Tuesday. This series of short waves begins to move east of the
Rockies and across the central high plains Tuesday night providing
for an increase in mostly high clouds. The upper flow over the
western U.S. becomes more southwesterly by Wednesday as a trough
swings into the Pacific Northwest and additional short wave
troughs lift out across the central high plains region through
Wednesday night.

As the short wave troughs aloft move east of the Rockies, a
surface low pressure begins to deepen over northeast Colorado and
moves into the forecast area as a surface trough Wednesday with a
cold front expected to follow across the forecast area overnight
Wednesday night.

Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the upper
80s to middle 90s and lows in the middle 50s to middle 60s. With
a dry airmass in place through early Wednesday, expect dry
conditions to persist. Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms are
expected across the eastern half of the forecast area late
Wednesday into Wednesday night once additional moisture moves into
the region along with stronger near surface forcing in the
vicinity of the surface trough and cold front in addition to
forcing aloft associated with the short wave troughs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

The start of the long term period, Thursday, will be dry with the
region still partially under the ridge. Southwest flow starts to
move into the region as the very strong low pressure that is in the
western CONUS moves closer to the CWA. The area could see some
precipitation during the evening hours due to the moisture being
pushed up into the region from the southwest flow.

Come Friday, storm chances will be possible. This is due to a cold
front, from the low pressure system, moving over the region. The
trough will reach the CWA during the day. Storm chances are possible
over the entire region but the greater chances look to be in the
eastern portions of the CWA. Effective bulk shear looks favorable
for storm development but current model runs do not have impressive
CAPE.

Saturday has continued storm chances over the region; greatest
chances in the east again. The GFS is moving a little faster and has
the trough moving over the region and the European is slower and has
the trough more west. South, southwest flow is still present over
the region and brings continued moisture into the area.

Sunday has chances for precipitation in the morning hours as the
trough exits and moves east of the area. Southwest flow is still
present during the morning hours but it gets cut off later in the
day as a ridge begins to push into the region. Dry conditions are
expected during the remainder of the day.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s Thursday and Friday.
Saturday will drop into the 70s due to the cold frontal passage on
Friday. Sunday will continue to be in the low 70s over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Conditions...VFR.

Precip/Wx....None.

Winds........For KGLD...ENE around 10kts thru 00z tonight then
SSE around 10kts. For KMCK...ENE 5-10kts thru 11z Tuesday then SE
around 10kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN



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