Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231244
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE WEST AND IS
NOW FURTHER WEST THAN ANY MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING.
SO EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER
WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AREA WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

AS FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WILL EXTEND IT A FEW MORE HOURS TIL
16Z AS THE RUC IS HOLDING ONTO IT A BIT LONGER THEN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SLIDE SLOWLY INTO
WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EXITING EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY. CLEAR SKY EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 80S...EXCEPTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHERE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AS LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
CONFINED TO POSSIBLY A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...OTHERWISE
CLEAR. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH 75 TO 80 ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WITH SIMILAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY. THE NEW ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST AND MOST
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS THE
FASTEST WITH THE GFS IN THE MIDDLE.

WITH THE SLOWER ARRIVAL AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SUNDAY NIGHT
IS LOOKING DRY AND LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. BULK OF THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF THE JET LIFT BUT THEY EITHER HAVE A
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OR LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS VARY IN THE SPEED THEY ARE MOVING
THE SYSTEM THROUGH...THEY IN GENERAL ARE A LITTLE SLOWER.

AS A RESULT OF THAT AND THE LIFT BEING STRONGER...RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT LASTS INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. SO LIKE THE LINGERING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THE INIT GAVE ME AND WILL KEEP. BIG DIFFERENCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND BECAUSE OF THAT AND
GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS...KEPT THE DRY POPS THE
INIT GAVE ME.

SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY THE LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. SAME
GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...MODEL OUTPUT IS NOW MORE CONSISTENT IN BACKING SOME KIND
OF BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THEN
LIFTING IT OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT FRONT STAYS
OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA SO A BIG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE COULD
OCCUR THIS DAY AND THE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. SO DECIDED TO NOT
TOUCH THOSE MAXES.

MODELS IN MORE AGREEMENT ON THE COOLER MAXES FOR MONDAY WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH COLDER. FORECAST MAXES
LOOK REASONABLE BUT IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT MAXES COULD BE
EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WILL BE IN THERE. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...SLOWER
DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT AT THE VERY LEAST. DEFINITELY COULD SEE FROST WITH
THE NORTHWEST PORTION HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST AS COLD OR COLDER
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT
BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST NEAR 10KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS JUST EAST OR ON TOP OF THE TERMINAL FROM TAF ISSUANCE
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY
OVER THE TERMINAL REDEVELOPS DESPITE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10KTS.
LIGHT WEST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FROM 04Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN
AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS FRIDAY OCTOBER 24:

BURLINGTON....84 IN 1952
COLBY.........87 IN 2003

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99



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