Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1214 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Latest upper analysis shows the closed low moving northeast with a
ridge approaching from the west. Satellite imagery shows cumulus
clouds developing as temperatures continue to warm, replacing the
wave clouds that are indicative of a stable environment. At the
surface winds continue to increase as the low level jet over the
forecast area begins to mix down to the ground. Anticipate
northerly winds to increase from north to south, with the peak
wind gusts occurring during the first part of the afternoon. With
weak lift over the entire forecast area this afternoon and steep
temperature lapse rates in place, continue to foresee the
potential for isolated showers to develop.

This evening winds will rapidly decline and become light. Any
lingering showers will end as temperatures cool.  During the
overnight hours a surface high will move through from the west,
causing the north winds to turn to the west. The sky will also
clear from west to east ahead of the surface high as drier air
moves in behind the closed low headed toward the Great Lakes. With
favorable conditions for radiational cooling, am anticipating
lows falling into the mid 30s to around 40. Considered issuing a
frost advisory for the west half to third of the forecast area,
however surface to 850mb temperatures will be warming as the
surface high moves in from the west. In fact the low level
temperature field was cooler last night over Eastern Colorado and
lows only fell into the mid 30s. With this in mind am thinking the
current forecast lows look good. While frost will form, am
thinking it will be confined to low lying areas and not be a large
enough in extent to warrant an advisory. Plan on issuing a
graphic today highlighting the potential for frost to get the
word out.

Wednesday winds will be much lighter than today as the surface
high continues to move through ahead of an upper level ridge. A
warm front will move through the forecast area from the west. Due
to subsidence and dry air, am not expecting any storm development
as the front moves through.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Shortwave high pressure will modify and slide eastward overnight
Wednesday and into Thursday. A closed low will, at the same time,
stall in southern Saskatchewan all the while extending a trough
southward into the Plains. Instability will build through the
afternoon with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing as a
result. Severe thunderstorms are possible; however, given the
generally low instability, coverage will be very isolated and
limited to mainly the eastern and southern portions of the CWA. We
will have another chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon;
however, instability will be a bit higher with more favorable shear
in place as we head into the afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will
be higher with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

Due to the nearly stationary nature of the upper low, thunderstorm
chances remain through the weekend. Instability is much lower on
Saturday and Sunday, thus general thunderstorms with the isolated
strong storm or two would be expected on Saturday with lesser
coverage on Sunday. Precipitation chances on Sunday will be limited
to mainly the early morning hours. Thunderstorm chances are in the
forecast for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons with only a low risk
of strong storms at this point.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1018 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Main issue will be the
timing of the wind increase/decrease this afternoon. Am expecting
the peak gusts to be in the 18-21z timeframe. The winds should
decrease rapidly around 0z. Isolated showers are also expected to
develop this afternoon. Am not anticipating much of an areal
extent with them and difficult to define a particular location
most favorable for their development. Gusty winds may accompany
any showers. The showers will end around 0z as the heat of the day

Tonight winds will turn to the west as a surface high moves
through. During the morning winds will turn from the west to the
south as a warm front moves in from the west.




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