Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 291956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
156 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Upper low is centered over south central Kansas with large plume of
mid-upper level moisture across NW Kansas. Ridge is building into
the Central Rockies with axis of subsidence extending from the
Nebraska Panhandle across central Colorado. Radar shows band of
light to moderate rainfall extending across the eastern half of our
CWA, while the western periphery continues to redevelop towards the
Colorado state line despite main band continuing to shift east.

This afternoon-Thursday morning: As upper low transitions eastward
we should see a continued downward trend in rain coverage and
intensity, however at least through the afternoon hours additional
showers may develop as large scale forcing linger. Guidance shows
showers lingering in our east through late tonight ending by 12Z as
upper low final exits the region and ridging builds aloft.
Rainfall may already be over in our far west, but some high res
guidance is still showing possible light showers redeveloping
through the early evening, so I kept slight chance PoPs along/west
of the CO state line. Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon
through tonight may still approach 0.5" in our far east with much
less west.

As the back edge of the precip moves across our CWA surface high
pressure will begin to build along the CO state line, and low level
moisture is shown by high resolution guidance to pool in this region
of clearing. RAP/HRRR/ARW/NMM/NAM all show a narrow axis lower
visibilities along/east of Colorado state line due to possible fog
development. I added patchy mention late tonight and Thursday
morning (09-15Z), with a narrower "areas of" mention. If moisture
pools as shown we may also see low clouds develop complicating low
temp forecast tonight. Clearing appears most likely in eastern
Colorado and hard freeze conditions will be possible there.

Thursday: Any fog or stratus should burn off by midday and mostly
sunny skies should prevail the rest of the day with passing mid-high
clouds. Surface high pressure will still be in place with weak
gradient keeping winds lighter. Cooler air mass lingers in our east,
while southerly flow east of lee trough begins to bring WAA to our
west. highs will generally be seasonal near 60F (west) to the mid
50s east. This should be a nice day once the morning fog clears.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Model solutions are in somewhat better agreement than yesterdays
solutions, but still diverge somewhat towards the end of the long
term period.  The pattern remains active as a series of low pressure
systems moves out of the Rockies and across the plains.

The upper low that moved into New Mexico Friday night remains over
the state through Saturday as it becomes somewhat detached from the
upper flow. The low begins moving across the Texas panhandle and
into Oklahoma on Sunday as a kicker moves into the Pacific
Northwest. The surface low associated with the upper low moving
across Texas moves well south of the area across Mexico and south
Texas on Saturday and Sunday. The upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest continues inland on Sunday night and moves into the
Intermountain West on Monday as the upper low initially over Texas
moves east across the Southern Plains and the surface low lifts
northeast into the central Mississippi Valley region.

As a result of the slow moving low over New Mexico, light
precipitation continues across the forecast area on Saturday and
Saturday night with rain mixing with and changing to light snow
Saturday night.  Precipitation moves out of the area by early Sunday.

Between the low pressure area over the Eastern Plains and the
incoming trough over the Rockies, a weak higher pressure area moves
over the High Plains on Monday. This will keep the forecast area
mostly dry through Monday with temperatures rising back up into the
lower to mid 60s.

High pressure is replaced on Tuesday by the upper trough and
associated surface low pressure area moving east of the Central
Rockies and into the Central and Southern High Plains regions. Light
rain once again spreads across the area from Tuesday into Wednesday
with a possibility of mixing with and turning to light snow Tuesday


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Rain continues to rotate across southwest Nebraska and northwest
Kansas at TAF issuance, with several breaks in coverage primarily
at KMCK where light fog developed. This activity will slowly
decrease in coverage through the afternoon and early evening with
VFR conditions eventually returning and winds decreasing below
12kt by the middle of the evening. Low level moisture lingers on
the back side of the precip field, and this will allow for fog and
possibly stratus redevelopment after 09z. Guidance is showing the
better chance for reduced visibilities along the CO border
including KGLD. I have less confidence at KMCK, but this can`t be
ruled out, and models are at least showing stratus redevelopment
in southwest Nebraska.




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