Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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061
FXUS63 KGLD 170934
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
234 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 234 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Over the Tri State region this morning...the area is seeing cloudy
skies mainly brought about by a low stratus deck...as the area lies
north of a frontal boundary. Far eastern zones are mainly under the
influence of the circulation from the outer band of clouds from an
upper low traversing eastern Kansas. Some light precip is showing up
in this cloud band and will pivot thru eastern areas over the next
couple hours.

Temperatures area-wide are ranging from the upper 20s thru the 30s.
Fog is developing across NW zones and should transition slowly ESE
thru the morning...with only stronger gusts from Highway 27 eastward
prohibiting development due to decent mixing at the low levels.

With temps this morning around freezing for many spots...freezing
fog and even freezing drizzle that develops could put light coatings
on area roadways...so will have to monitor.

For today though...the CWA will see mainly cloudy skies thru the
morning hrs will clearing from west to east. The area awaits a slow
moving trough NW of the area to swing into the Plains region. The
slowness/timing of this system is affected by the movement of the
upper trough/low over eastern Kansas. Once the trough to the NW
clears the area...high pressure is set to build back over the region
right thru Tuesday night.

For temps...CAA into the area combined with the veil of thick clouds
will inhibit warming of the area. Even though the region will see
clearing late...much of the daytime heating will be done...so
looking for daytime highs today only ranging from the upper 30s to
the low 40s. For Monday and Tuesday...the area will see 50s for
highs. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 20s...with some teens
west of Highway 27 tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

Confidence remains high with regards to a much colder pattern
emerging toward the end of the week. Wednesday will be our last warm
day with afternoon high temperatures pushing the 60 degree mark
across much of the CWA.

A strong cold front and chance of snow will
serve to mark the shift to a much colder pattern beginning early
Thursday morning. Temperatures at the 850mb level plunge through the
day, beginning around 12Z when 850mb temps will be in the 5C to 9C
range. Values fall into the -9C to -4C range by 00Z.

There will be a chance of light snow as this system pushes across
the region from northwest to southeast with a very brief period of
light showers or freezing rain before changing to all snow. The
dendritic growth layer will lag just behind the surface front,
giving us this very brief window for liquid precip. Snowfall amounts
will be light, generally less than two inches, as there will be
little moisture in place as the theta-e boundary moves quickly
through the area. High temperatures on Thursday will only reach the
upper 20s to lower 30s and will fall sharply through the afternoon.
Lows will fall into the upper single digits to lower teens.

CAA remains strong through the night and into Friday ahead of the
next push of even colder air that will make it`s way into the area
as we head into Friday night and Saturday. Highs on Friday look to
reach the lower 30s with lows in the lower teens. For Saturday,
highs will only reach the middle 20s with lows falling into the
single digits. This will be driven by a very strong low that will
deepen in western Ontario and move southward into Minnesota and
western Wisconsin. Frigid air will be pulled down along the western
side of this H5 low, pouring into the entire Plains region late
Saturday and into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1014 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

IFR stratus has moved over KGLD earlier than current guidance
would indicate, so adjustments were made to reflect ongoing
trends. LIFR cigs and possibly IFR (or lower) vis will develop at
KGLD by 08Z as additional low level moisture moves into the
region. VFR conditions should decrease to IFR at KMCK within the
first hour or two (leaning towards faster solution). Both
terminals should see VFR conditions return by 21Z Sunday
afternoon. North-northeast winds 10-12kt will slowly shift to the
northwest through midday Sunday, and then become light and
variable by the later part of the afternoon as high pressure
passes through the region.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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