Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182355
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS PLAINS WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH GOOD FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FRONT STALLS IN
THE SE...WITH 0-6KM WINDS DROPPING TO 15KT OR LESS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AREA OF CWA WHERE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD/BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. LCLS CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH THROUGH EVENT...FAVORING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL/WIND THREAT IF WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS PLAINS WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A
DRY LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THEN NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE DEFINED DRY LINE AND THIS COULD PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE. THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS OF PAST
SPRINGTIME WIND/RFW EVENTS...AND WE COULD SEE ADVISORY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE MIXED LAYER
TD VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WOULD SUPPORT RH 10-15 PERCENT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND NW FLOW
WE SHOULD SEE LESS OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPS ALOFT...SO AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND TURING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 20Z
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 21Z-24Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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