Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201605

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1005 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Surface cold front associated with a system moving across the
northern plains will make its way across the forecast area today,
but with ridge holding strong aloft it will have only a minimal
impact on temperatures. A very weak shortwave trough coming over
the top of the ridge tonight will produce widely scattered light
rain showers overnight and into Tuesday morning. Rain amounts of
only a few hundredths of an inch are anticipated. There will be a
lull in the precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon as the upper
ridge rebuilds, but due to persistent low level upslope winds
and clouds temperatures will only reach the low to mid 50s.
Another weak system comes over the ridge Tuesday night with
scattered rain showers mainly after midnight. Again, measurable
precipitation amounts will be very light. Wednesday will be dry,
but with recycled cool air in the low level southeasterly flow
and mostly cloudy skies temperatures will remain on the cool side.
Perhaps the best chance for precipitation this period will arrive
Wednesday night with a lead shortwave ejecting ahead of the
stronger system developing in the Four Corners. Might see a risk
of an elevated thunderstorm or two with mucape increasing

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

On Thursday, upper ridging progresses east and flow aloft becomes
southwesterly as an upper low develops over the Four Corners region.
Meanwhile, the associated surface low forms in eastern Colorado.
This system generates precipitation chances for the area which rise
through the evening hours. Instability increases Thursday afternoon
and evening with a dryline set up near the Colorado border. There
will be an opportunity for thunderstorm development. However,
strength of these storms is yet to be determined due to uncertainty
in moisture return.

The system moves across the central Plains on Friday, sending a cold
front through the region in the morning. Temperatures cool with
showers and cloudy conditions overhead. North winds strengthen
behind the front, with gusts currently forecast near 40 mph in the
afternoon. The low moves off to the east by the end of the day, and
precipitation chances decrease as wrap around showers taper off
behind the system.

Shortwave ridging builds in on Saturday, raising temperatures and
drying things out. A disturbance looks to pass over the High Plains
on Sunday, bringing rain shower chances back to the forecast.

Temperatures start the period near 70 degrees before falling into
the 50s to low 60s after the frontal passage. The region then sees a
slight warm up into the low/mid 60s for the weekend. Lows follow a
similar trend, starting out in the mid 30s to mid 40s Thursday
night, dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s Friday night, and up
into the 30s thereafter.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 13z.
Winds start from the north around 6kts but then veer to the east
under 10kts by 20z then east near 12kts by 06z. After 09z winds
generally from the east between 10-12kts. Stratus is possible
after 09z but mostly likely to create mvfr cigs in the 14z-16z
timeframe. It will linger after 16z but cigs look to rise just
above mvfr category.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Winds begin the
period from the northeast around 10kts then become east-northeast
around 12kts from 03z through the rest of the taf period. Could
see a rain shower near or at the terminal a few hours either side
of 12z Tuesday.




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