Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 202230
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Latest upper air analysis shows a long wave trough over the
Central Plains with a ridge moving onto the West Coast. Closer to
home a surface high was moving across the Tri-State Area.
Tonight winds will turn to the south behind the surface high and
gradually increase a few MPH overnight as a surface trough
approaches from the northwest. Dew points will be in the 20s to
mid 30s from west to east. Was concerned that temperatures would
fall to the upper 20s overnight for the west half of the Tri-State
Area. However winds will be close to 10 MPH and the air mass will
be a few degrees warmer than last night, so think these two
factors should mitigate the threat for a hard freeze. That being
said low lying locations from the Highway 25 corridor west will
likely have a hard freeze where cold pockets will develop.
Friday morning the surface trough will move through the Tri-State
Area. Behind the surface trough winds will turn to the northwest
and warm air advection will begin. Highs will be fifteen degrees
or so warmer than today as a result. By noon south winds east of
Highway 83 ahead of the surface trough will be breezy. These winds
will decline and turn to the northwest as the surface trough moves
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016
Warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions are
anticipated in the long term period. High temperatures will be
mainly in the 70s while low temperatures will range from the upper
30s to near 50.
What will be producing this period of warm and dry conditions is
the generally high pressure in place across the southern portions
of the United States. This will keep the jet stream oriented
across the northern tier of states and prevent cold air from
moving southward across areas east of the Rockies.
A low pressure area dives into position off the Pacific Northwest
over the weekend. As the downstream upper flow across the
southwestern U.S. and Rockies turns more southwesterly, a series
of short wave troughs lifts out across the Rockies and Central
High Plains regions Monday through Tuesday. The strongest wave
transitions the forecast area on Tuesday. While the GFS and ECMWF
are in somewhat better agreement than yesterdays run, and they
both develop spotty light QPF amounts over somewhat similar sections
of the forecast area, the Superblend has kept the forecast area
dry. Given the very light nature and very low probability of
precipitation, have left the Superblend dry solution intact for
Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016
For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Winds begin the period light and variable with a gradual shift to
the south around 6kts by 04z ahead of an approaching sfc trough.
Trough moves through during the late morning/early afternoon
Friday shifting them to the west then northwest at speeds 10kts or
less. Behind the trough winds become light from the northwest to
northeast. Only some mid and high cloudiness expected.
KS...Frost Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
Friday for KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
CO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ090>092.
NE...Frost Advisory from 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/
Friday for NEZ079>081.