Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 281806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLORADO UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. STORM MOVEMENT
WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCAL AREAS TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLORADO UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE
TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

GOING INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME CLDS/RAIN REMNANTS OVER EASTERN ZONES POSSIBLE
DUE TO LINGERING TROUGH...BUT OVERALL NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE AREA.

GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE
TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE YET ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF RW/TRW AS TWO
SHORTWAVES WORK OVER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
NORTHERN TRACK DOES FAVOR HIGHEST POPS NORTH ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL
NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES...BUT TRENDING SLOWLY DOWN TO BLW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU AREA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL START
OUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY.  WHILE THERE WILL BE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH...A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.  THIS
WILL LIMIT BETTER PRECIP. CHANCES TO THE EASTERN HALF TO THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE 1000-500MB MOISTURE WILL BE.  IN ADDITION SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED.  WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA TUESDAY ONWARD. BEHIND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MULTIPLE SMALLER
SCALE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
PATCHES OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNDAY. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SO PRECIP.
CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. SEVERE WX NOT
EXPECTED. CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA FL030.
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...CLEARING OUT AT
10-12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DLF



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