Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
533 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Today-tonight...two bands of moisture primarily in the 700-500mb
layer move into the area today, one across the far east through
southern parts of the area and another across the far west and
northwest portions of the area along a cold front. These will act as
a focus for afternoon through early evening shower and thunderstorm
development before dissipating as stable sfc high moves in. Will
have to deal with stratus and possibly some fog moving in from the
north by mid to late evening quickly spreading south across the
remainder of the area overnight. High temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Eclipse forecast (roughly 10AM MST (11 AM CST) through 2PM CST (3 PM
CST)...currently expecting temperatures to remain steady in the mid
70s to low 80s with winds from the southwest 5 to 20 mph, highest
generally along and south of the interstate. Thickest cloud cover
from near Hill City to Tribune and points south with
isolated/scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Elsewhere
just high clouds which at this time shouldnt be thick enough to
prevent good viewing but forecasting thickness of these clouds is
always difficult.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...morning low clouds/possible fog expected to
steadily dissipate through mid to late morning leaving a sunny to
mostly sunny sky in the afternoon. Little if any moisture in the 850-
500mb column leading to a dry forecast under perhaps a small
increase in high clouds through the night. High temperatures in the
upper 70s to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to around 60.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...may see a few showers/thunderstorms mid
to late morning Wednesday across parts of far eastern Colorado as
some 850-500mb moisture moves in from the west interacting with
instability axis. This remains nearly stationary during the
afternoon before slightly shifting east during the evening. High
temperatures int he low to mid 80s, lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Thursday-Friday: At the surface, surface troughing and a stationary
boundary, oriented north-south, positioned west of the CO/KS border,
will help provide a focusing mechanism for storm and shower
development. Aloft, a series of shortwaves will move across the area
in the northwest to zonal upper level flow. Will have a chance of
showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. Looking at model
soundings, GFS is showing decent MUCAPE (~2000 J/kg) and 0-6km shear
(~30 kt). Therefore, some storms that form could become strong to
severe. Hail and strong winds would be the biggest threats.

Saturday-Sunday: Models in disagreement for this period. Right now
it appears that the stationary front will begin to progress off to
the east across the area, lifting out as a warm front. ECMWF keeps
the CWA fairly dry with a straight northerly upper flow pattern. GFS
continues to keep a chance of showers and storms in the area with a
couple of shortwaves moving through. Best chance of precipitation
looks to be Saturday afternoon and evening, especially over the
eastern half of the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 527 AM MDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For KGLD and KMCK... VFR conditions through the day and evening.
Will see MVFR conditions around 11Z tomorrow morning as low
stratus enters the area. During the day today, expect breezy
conditions with wind gusts near 25kt. Front pushes through the
area this evening/tonight and winds follow by turning to northerly
direction. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the
area around 0Z-1Z. Chose to omit from TAFs due to low chance and
did not feel that would impact the terminals if they formed.




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