Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD...mvfr cigs expected at or very near taf issuance as
stratus moves in from the southeast with surface winds from the
east near 10kts. sfc based thunderstorms expected around the
terminal as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease around 09z with
stratus and vlifr cigs and/or vis expected through about 17z.
models differ on how fast the stratus lifts north with the nam the
slower and gfs more progressive. Trended toward previous forecast
then favored the gfs which would bring vfr conditions to the
terminal after 21z as winds veer to the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through 07z
or so with winds from the east around 5kts. from 08z-11z
thunderstorms possible from the south and west before dissipating
and/or moving northeast away from the terminal. Cigs will lower to
vlifr category. From 12z-18z am expecting vlifr cigs and possibly
vis. From 19z-21z cigs expected to slowly rise to mvfr category
then vfr from 22z through the rest of the taf period with winds
from the east-southeast around 11kts.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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