Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 071742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1042 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Issued at 809 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Area 12z soundings showing that area is solidly in the dendritic
zone. Many locations are experiencing flurries with minimal amount
of lift going. So based on where the cloud deck is right now, am
inserting flurries for the rest of the morning for now.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Today, winds will be coming up to 20-25 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures will again be impacted by CAA and cloud cover, so
highs will be sitting in the mid 30s, and bring our lows up to the
mid and upper 20s. Mid level forcing may be enough to generate
some light rain and snow mix this afternoon into tonight, with the
best chances for the counties around the Colorado Kansas line.

Friday`s main concerns will be fire weather conditions and a very
strong round of wind gusts for our western CWA. Becoming more
confident based on local wind gust guidance that we could see
gusts up to 45-50 knots for our western CWA. Grids show a lower
value to blend with surrounding offices. Wind criteria will be met
for fire weather concerns, but borderline RH values are still
holding back the issuance of a watch or warning.

Saturday, NNW winds will hang in the 25-30 mph range, and will
bring in drier conditions  and mostly clear skies. Highs will be
in the mid 50s with lows in the mid 20s. Expecting, if the
guidance holds, to be issuing fire weather hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

The forecast area will remain in between upper level high pressure
over the west with low pressure over the east/northeast. Toward the
end of the period the influence of the upper low will be felt and
the upper high pushed west off the west coast. For our area this
means the warmest day will be Sunday with highs around 60. For
Monday through Wednesday we should see afternoon temperatures in the
50s with lows in the 20s to around 30 (mildest Sunday night and
Tuesday night). Will have to watch for the possibility of light
precipitation during the day Monday as some moisture in the 850-
500mb layer moves through from the north. Looks like another windy
day Monday afternoon as well with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph
or so at present time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

For Kgld, barely mvfr or just above mvfr ceilings are expected
this afternoon. Northwest winds of near 18 knots gusting to 25
knots are expected. From late this afternoon into early this
evening very light snow or flurries is expected near the site and
have included vcsh. Until 06z west to northwest winds will be near
12 knots. At that time, northwest winds will increase to near 17
knots with gusts to near 24 knots. Beginning at 14z the sustained
speeds and gusts will increase about 7 knots.

For Kmck, vfr conditions are expected through the period. West to
northwest winds of 7 to 12 knots are expected through tomorrow
morning. At 16z, the winds will shift to the northwest at near 16
knots with gusts to near 24 knots.




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