Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 220755
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016
Across the forecast area this morning...temps are ranging from the
mid 60s to around 70F w/ mainly partly cloudy skies. Winds are still
coming from the south with many locales seeing gusts 20-25 mph.
Going into today warming trend expected to continue as CWA will
remain between high pressure to the east...and a lee-side trough
over the Front Range. The southerly gradient between these two
systems will provide strong WAA into the area. With overnight lows
at least 10 degrees warmer than last night...sunrise this morning
will get area big jump start for another expected round of 90F+ for
much of the CWA. Going into tonight...little change in synoptic
setup so looking for overnight lows to range in the 60s.
For Tuesday...a small shift eastward is expected for the trough to
our west. Strong WAA expected to continue with another day of 90F+
for the CWA. Increasing cloud cover expected for Tuesday night on
thru Wednesday night with trough moving off Front Range and thru the
CWA as a cold front. High temps for Wednesday will begin to trend
back into the 70s as colder air returns behind frontal boundary.
For precipitation over the 72-hr period...the focus of any major
rw/trw activity will be on the arrival of the frontal boundary into
the CWA late Tuesday on into Wednesday night. Highest pops during
this time will be over eastern zones as orientation of the front
will allow for deeper moisture to trigger more instability/storms
especially Wednesday. Monday night on into Tuesday will see some
scattered precip ahead of trough coming east from the Front Range.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016
Chances for thunderstorms persist throughout the extended period
as temperatures steadily rise.
On Thursday, upper high pressure continues over the southeastern
CONUS with southwesterly flow above the region as a shortwave trough
advances over the western half of the country. Thunderstorm chances
increase as the shortwave approaches, with the best chance currently
looking to be Friday night. West to southwest flow continues through
the weekend and disturbances pass across the area. With moisture
filtering north along the western periphery of southeastern high
pressure, could not rule out precipitation during any period.
Cooler temperatures continue on Thursday after Wednesday`s frontal
passage with highs in the 70s. Temperatures rebound through the
weekend, and highs are back into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Low
temperatures rise throughout the extended as well, from the 50s
Thursday night to the mid 50s/mid 60s Saturday night.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016
VFR and mostly clear at both KGLD and KMCK while surface winds
remain southerly during period. A tight pressure gradient will
continue through Monday with gusts increasing to 30 kts by mid-
morning Monday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm exists at KGLD
early Monday evening. Coverage looks limited and have handled
with a VCTS for a few hours.