Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270808
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024


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