Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241125
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
525 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.

Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night.  A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight.  The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.

a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms.  Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa.  Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil.  A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night.  Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.

Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Heading into the weekend a meandering surface boundary sets up over
the Central Plains out ahead of a upper level trough over the
Rockies. Models show this system shifting eastward of the region
Friday night, before lifting into North Central Nebraska.

Potential for rainshowers and thunderstorms increases over the
holiday weekend as remnants from the prior boundary looks to remain
over the region and another upper level low moving through the North
Central Rockies.

look for much the same at the begining of the work week as
another system looks to move through the region.

With a general southwesterly upper flow over the region, look for
near to above normal temperatures through the extened as decent warm
air advection over the area. Daytime highs will range from the mid
70s thru the mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s
thru the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK TODAY AND THEN LATE
TONIGH/EARLY WEDNESDAY GOING DOWN TO MVFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT KGLD WILL DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING. VFR
WILL RETURN TO KGLD BY MIDDAY. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF TAF.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS


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