000
FXUS63 KGLD 231749
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. BASICALLY
CLEARED RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF AREA...BUT KEPT MORNING
SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE EAST. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE STABLE SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

TODAY...A WEAK SHORT/WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE...CANNOT IGNORE THE RADAR WHICH
DEPICTS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SHOWS A FEW
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MENTION MORNING SHOWERS...
BUT SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING AFTER 06Z.
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE EAST BY MID MORNING. AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DRY LINE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT TO DEFEAT THE CAP. SO...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE...BUT NOT GREAT SO AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY SLOW WARM/UP...BUT
WITH EXPECTED CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. AGAIN...THE MID LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A DRY LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 30 DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORT/WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS APPEAR BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND KEEPS IT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS
DEPICTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS BUT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF A
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. THIS AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN. LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF GLD AND MCK LATE THIS MORNING
BUT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT GUSTING TO 20KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TO IFR LEVELS. FOG
WILL LIFT EARLY TOMORROW BUT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...JJM