Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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104
FXUS63 KGLD 240927
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through sunday night)
Issued at 227 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are a clear to
partly cloudy mix as some high clouds are moving SE thru the area.
Temps are currently ranging in the 40s with a light WSW wind.

For today...upper level trough will shift off the Rockies and across
the northern Plains. A cold front will move south in tandem with the
upper level system...traversing the CWA thru the afternoon. High
pressure will build into the Plains region behind the frontal
boundary and eventually shift east of the region going into the
upcoming weekend. The shift of the surface ridge will also coincide
to the re-amplification of H5/H7 ridging across the western portion
of the country. The result of this setup gives the CWA an extension
of dry conditions thru the next 72 hours...right thru Sunday night.

Also for the CWA...the afternoon passage of the cold front today
will give the area another above normal day for temperatures with
many locales in the 70-74F range. Some areas will tie or break
records. Please refer to the Climate section below. Extreme northern
locales will only reach into the upper 60s before colder air arrives
with the passage of the front. The shift of the surface ridge east
of the CWA Saturday will allow for WAA to return with 60-65F for
daytime highs...warmest west. Strong downslope conditions aloft and
WSW flow on Sunday increases WAA in the area for highs 70-75F with
some upper 60s in the far east.

Sunday`s dry conditions will also bring about low RH readings in the
mid to upper teens for areas mainly along and west of Highway 27.
This area will be lacking winds to meet criteria for Fire Wx
concerns...but will have to be monitored.

The passage of the front this afternoon will shift winds to the
north with gusts nearing the 30-35 mph range before tapering off
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Deep southwest flow will be in place over our CWA between a
deepening trough in the western US and retreating ridge in the east.
A cold front will be approaching from the north and current guidance
shows prefrontal trough centered roughly over our CWA Monday. Strong
WAA will be in place at least through midday, and we may see record
highs. Deep mixing may also support RH values dropping to 15 or
lower over much of our CWA (though current Td blends keep this
further west). Better gradient will tend to be further south and
north of our CWA, and we may not see 3hr of 25 mph/15% RH criteria
met for RFW. There is still time, so this will need to be monitored.

Cold front should pass through our CWA by Monday night and we may
see a brief period of gusty winds Monday evening. Behind this front
temperatures should return to near normal (upper 40s/low 50s for
highs).

The pattern appears to be more progressive with lower heights,
however the track/evolution of the trough in the middle part of the
week and another later in the week will be crucial for precip
chances and potential for more impactful weather. There is still
variance between models on evolution of the trough Monday night
through Wednesday night, though ECMWF has consistently shown a
closed H5/H7 low moving from the four corners over our CWA
(possibility for accumulating snow). GFS/GEM are still further south
with stronger portion of the trough and keep much drier air mass in
place (non measurable precip favored). There has been a trend with
the GFS/GEM closing off the base of the trough (just maintains less
favorable tracks). Even if the ECMWF solution verified, the pattern
is progressive enough to limit potential accumulations. At the same
time moderate snow/blowing snow couldn`t be ruled out as a worst
case scenario. I kept slight chance mention for rain/snow Tue-
Tuesday night as a compromise between the two extremes. This is
worth monitoring. All models support shortwave riding and dry
conditions by Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Friday morning, a cold front is expected to be moving over the
terminals causing a quick shift to northwest winds with gusty
winds winds around 30 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 227 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Friday 11/24:

                       Friday

Goodland KS          82F in 1910

McCook NE            72F in 1995

Burlington CO        75F in 2012

Hill City KS         73F in 1923

Colby KS             75F in 1915

Tribune KS           76F in 1942

Yuma CO              73F in 1990

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...EV
CLIMATE...JN



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