Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190028
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF
SEEING ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FILTER THRU. FOG IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AS FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR AS TO EXTENT/VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALL AREAS MAINLY AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...WITH ONLY A FEW OUTLIERS IN THE LOW/MID 30S RANGE IN
FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN


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