Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260822
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

TONIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND WIDE AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH WITH SOME CLEARING
(EXCEPT SOME CIRRUS) PER DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTH. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA. THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO
COME TO AN END AND BECOME RATHER LIGHT AFTER DARK. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THURSDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS ENTER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 17Z
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THESE WINDS EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE OVER
THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
WILL KEEP WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF DURING THIS TIME AS GFS
WANTING TO SHIFT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE
REGION...COMBINING IT WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO BRING IN
PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST ECMWF KEEPS THIS SHORTWAVE TOO FAR SOUTH
DESPITE SURFACE FRONT WORKING OFF THE ROCKIES. WILL OPT TO KEEP CWA
DRY FOR THIS PASSAGE AS SYSTEM SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING INTO
AREA TO BE EFFECTIVE IN OVERCOMING DRY LAYER NEAR SURFACE. BUT GOING
ITO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW A COUPLE
MORE SHORTWAVES THAT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR BRINGING A ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE AREA. FIRST SYSTEM HAS MOST OF UPPER SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH
GIVING NE ZONES BEST CHANCES FOR -RW LATE WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
SYSTEM HAS BETTER CHANCES TO BRING LIGHT RAIN TO ENTIRE REGION.
500/700 MB TROUGHS DO SWING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION...WITH
SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR SE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SYSTEM TO WRAP
AROUND SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ENHANCING CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
BEST CHANCE SIN EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO SURFACE LOW. LOOKING FOR
HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE IN THE SUN-TUES PERIOD FROM THE MID 60S TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S...BUT DROP BACK INTO THE 60S DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S WITH
SOME 40S MON-TUES NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BACKS INTO
THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVNING WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE NEAR KMCK WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS



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