958
FXUS63 KGLD 091850
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1250 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Tonight, much like the last few days, storms will fire up to our
west around 21-22z. These storms will attempt to move through
the area, but short range models are generally in agreement that
these storms will weaken as they move eastward due to the lack
of shear today. The main threats with these storms will be
large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early
evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that
area.

Later in the evening, a cluster of storms is expected to
graze our area as it moves across our northeasternmost counties.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing and generally
whether theses storms will influence our area or slide a little
further east, but generally we expect our easternmost locations
to see the potential for severe weather late tonight. Generally,
the main threats associated with these storms will be damaging
winds (60+mph). For this reason, we are outlooked in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather with the Slight Risk area just to our
east and north. The timing for these later storms will be
generally around or after 00z and should move through our area
by around 4z timeframe. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving through
the area, enhancing rain and storm chances. Conditions tomorrow
look favorable for severe weather as this system moves through
from west to east starting around 21-22z and progressing
eastward through the evening hours. Generally, the biggest
limiting factor right now is shear as it is a big weaker than
expected. And instability is marginal, but adequate. As this
system moves through, the main threats will be severe damaging
winds 60-75mph and a lesser threat of hail is forecast. We are
outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather to reflect these
conditions. This system will be fairly progressive, so any
flash flooding concerns should be quite localized.

Friday through the weekend, weak zonal flow and a potential weak
shortwave could be moving through the area, enhancing rain
chances. Right now, there is a lot of model uncertainty in the
timing of the rain or any severity. Friday, at least, the
general consensus is for strong to severe storms to fire up in
eastern CO and progress through our area in the afternoon and
evening hours. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe
Weather Friday mainly for the damaging wind concern. Beyond
Friday, the general pattern remains quite a bit uncertain, more
than usual. But generally expect daily potential for strong to
severe storms to be moving through the area this weekend. The
main threats with these storms would be damaging winds
(50-60mph) and large hail. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist
through the forecast period for both area airports. Wind shear
is in the forecast for 40-50mph winds late this evening as some
storms and outflow boundaries move through the area. Wind shifts
greater than 30 degrees will be expected throughout the forecast
period. MSW

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Williams