Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250524

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1124 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Issued at 816 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Precipitation continues to decline in coverage as H5 low
continues to drift to the east across Oklahoma. Expect
precipitation to continue to decrease in coverage and intensity
through the next 2 hours.

Skies clearing rapidly from the west and with moist ground and
eventually light winds...fog threat seems to be increasing. Think
most likely area will be eastern CWA where clouds will be last to
break...resulting in an airmass preconditioned for fog
development. Have added/increased fog coverage tonight and will
continue to monitor.


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

WV imagery shows well defined closed low centered over the Texas
Panhandle, with the northwest part of the upper low over our CWA. At
the surface high pressure is beginning to build into eastern COlorado
with surface low pressure is now over the Texas Panhandle moving into
western Oklahoma.

This afternoon-Tonight: Upper low will continue to transition
eastward and occlusion currently associated with ongoing precip band
will begin to diminish in coverage and slide northeast. A lobe of
mid level vorticity on the NW extent of upper low center is shown to
rotate towards our eastern CWA and additional rain (or rain/snow)
development will be possible towards north central Kansas. High
resolution guidance (HRRR/ARW/NMM) are showing this with light precip
signal (ending by 12Z). Overall moisture will be decreasing as
stable drier air filters in from the west, so other than lingering
some slight chance PoPs in our far east after 06Z I have most precip
ending this evening.

Precip type continues to be problematic as area of lower Tw in the
lower levels lingers near the main precip band. Areas of eastern
Colorado have received light accumulations on grassy surfaces, but
trend has been for this roads to stay mainly wet (based on web
cams). Area of precip shift away from this cooler region, so
opportunity for accumulating snow may be limited. I can`t rule out
light slushy accumulations on grassy surfaces in NW Kansas or SW
Nebraska before all is said an done.

Some models had been showing possible fog development and with
surface high pressure building in this is possible. At the same time
much drier air will be filtering into the boundary layer, and other
than our far east where surface Tds may hold up I am not confident
about fog formation.  Majority of guidance does not show this, so I
kept mention out. Will be something to keep an eye on.

Temperatures tonight should drop well below freezing in our west
with clearing skies and cooler/drier air mass (lower 20s eastern
CO). Our east is less certain, as low clouds and possible precip
could limit diurnal cooling and lows may remain in upper 30s.

Saturday: Shortwave ridging will be in place, while surface high
pressure begins to slide east. There will be a slight moderation of
the air mass as lee trough begins to redevelop. We will likely end
up near seasonal normals in the upper 50s/lower 60s with mostly
sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

For the extended...nice dry evening on tap for the region as high
pressure continues to trek eastward over the Central Plains. Going
into Sunday though...the approach of a quick moving shortwave will
be the start of another round precipitation for the region. Latest
model guidance does shift this system south of the CWA during the
day and out of the area by nightfall.

H5 ridge begins to crest over the region behind exiting shortwave
Sunday night into Monday for a round of dry wx. The next system on
its heels looks to be the better system for widespread precipitation
accum for the Tri State region. The cutoff upper low travels SE off
the Rockies setting up over New Mexico due to ridge blocking in the
Southern Plains for Tuesday before shifting eastward as a strong
ridge pushes it towards the Mississippi Valley. Inverted surface
trough sets up into eastern Colorado on Tuesday to help in funneling
moisture into the region. Some instability from late afternoon/early
evening an added mention of an isolated thunderstorm
will accompany any rainfall. Colder air on the backside of the
system will allow for a change over to snow showers mainly for the
western third of the CWA. Overall QPF potential will put the area
close to seeing an inch area-wide w/ higher amts eastern due to the
movement of the system into Thursday.

Going into Friday...little break in the expected precip as another
shortwave moves into the area behind exiting midweek low. Ridging
between the two systems will put main focus for precip in western
zones at this time...with some rw/sw mix early in the day.

For temps...looking for above normal conditions thru the forecast
period with highs ranging from the mid 50s thru the mid
60s...warmest day on Monday. Overnight lows will range in 30s mostly
with some spot locales in the east near 40F.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period. North
to northwest winds less than 10 knots will become light and
variable late in the morning. Those winds will shift to the
southeast at near 8 knots around 00z.

For Kmck...conditions will be just above mvfr for the first 3
hours. Around 09z, mvfr conditions will develop and continue
until 16z when vfr conditions will return for the rest of the
period. North winds less than 10 knots will become northeast in
the afternoon at near 6 knots. Those winds will shift to east
southeast at the same speed around 00z.




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