Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 240445
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT THAT LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE 01Z-07Z TIME FRAME.

THE INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE AND
REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN UPPER LOW...KEEPING SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE
WITH THE THROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
STILL ANTICIPATED TO ENVELOP THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THE TWO KEY DISTURBANCES TO FOCUS ON ARE THE ONES MOVING
THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

BEGINNING WITH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BENIGN WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DUE TO A
DRY AIRMASS AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE RIDGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THIS SHALL LEAD TO COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS
TO HAVE A MUCH LARGE EFFECT.

ON MONDAY EVENING...A SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. OVERALL...AM NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BE
ANYTHING MAJOR. MINIMAL MUCAPE AND REMAINING DRY AIR INDICATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT ALL STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
CONTINUE TO PUMP RICH MOISTURE IN. IN ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE/FOG DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE...THE
LOW LEVEL JET...MOISTURE RETURN AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
INSTABILITY MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SO
KEPT THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW.

TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. FORECAST GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION
OF AN INCOMING DRYLINE...STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE THE STORMS
WILL FIRE AND HOW SIGNIFICANT THEY WILL BE. WITH THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW COMING IN AND A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT...SHEAR WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES.
APPROPRIATELY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY INCLUDED
PARTS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THIS THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING
DAYS.

AFTER A COOL DOWN...THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
KICKS OUT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER.
HOWEVER...IF A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD
BE FIRMLY IN THE SIGHTS FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
TUESDAY`S SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING THE MOST BUT THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK ALSO NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. KGLD RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE PAST KMCK
AFTER 07Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD DECREASE SUNDAY
EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.