Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151957
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
157 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE AIR
MASS REMAINING SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...EXPECT
STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP AND/OR MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH.
QUESTION IS HOW FAST AND FAR EAST WILL THIS HAPPEN.

MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW IN GETTING RID OF THE MOISTURE AND
BELIEVE THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE SPEED AND EXTENT THAT THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL RETURN. SO HAVE CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING IN THE
WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING AND THEN WORKING ITS WAY
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL MAKE MINS TRICKY BUT TENDED TO WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE
THE CLOUDS RETURN FIRST.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CLEARING OUT THE WEST FIRST AND MAKING IT
WARMER. LOWER ARE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE EAST WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE STILL KEEPING LOCATIONS COOLER IN THE EAST. SO DID MAKE
MAXES WARMER BUT NOT AS MUCH AS COULD DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FOR TUESDAY ON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUFKIT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION CARRYING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...SO PLAN ON KEEPING
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THRU 15Z BUT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT DURING THE MORNING HRS...ANY FOG COULD BE
LIMITED/CONSTRAINED. REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE BROAD H5 RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. STRONG WAA ON THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMUP TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER
MONDAY/S COOLER TEMPS.

MAINLY THE SAME SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ENSUE GOING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY CAVEAT IN LATEST MODELS SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH THE MVS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL LIE TO OUR
EAST AS THIS ARRIVES...SO PLAN ON KEEP SL CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES...CLRING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS AS BUFKIT STILL HINTS
AT INVERSION FOR AREA.AGAIN WINDS WILL PLAY ROLE IN ITS
DEVELOPMENT...SO AREAL POTENTIAL FOR DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXITS.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC TROUGH COMING OFF THE
ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS MODELS HINTING AT
CONVERGENCE AREA OVER THE PLAINS WITH CHANCE FOR THUNDER. BULK OF
THIS DOES SET UP CLOSER TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF SFC HIGH...WILL ONLY KEEP ANY POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES
AT THIS TIME.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPS FOR
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80F TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOW
60S. ALL THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TRI STATE AREA.  WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SEPTEMBER.  WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS.
DIFFERENCES AS TO DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS.  THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS ONE MAIN TROUGH MORE TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY AND FORCING
ALOFT ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP A
BIT FROM THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSION
ALOFT...TIMING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE IS A BIT
TOUGH.  THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TO THE EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
SATURDAY.

AS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION ON SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
STILL EXIST AS SOME UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS TIME. KMCK HAS ALREADY
BECOME VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL NEAR 12Z MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. KGLD IS CURRENTLY MVFR AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 21Z.
MODELS ARE SAYING THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR
AWAY. SO FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS BACK IN THE 04Z TO
07Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR
AND LAST UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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