Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 212044
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY.

DYNAMICS WITH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE TIED WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.  THE WINDOW
WILL BE BRIEF AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN EAST OF THE COLORADO
BORDER.  HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FIRST TIER OF COUNTIES
EAST OF COLORADO.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.  NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME WINDY
MONDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL BELOW LEVELS NECESSARY FOR A WIND
HIGHLIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE THE BRIEF
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND THE LACK OF MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS WITH READINGS
COOLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST OVER THE
EXISTING SNOWFIELD TO THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN DIVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW ALMOST
IDENTICAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN...HOWEVER THE CANADIAN HAS NOW
BECOME THE MODEL OUTLIER WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PATTERN AND
LAGGING IN TIMING BEHIND THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. CONTINUING TO GIVE
MORE MERIT TO THE GFS GUIDANCE BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL TO DATE BASED ON PAST RUNS.  THE GFS DEPICTS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
SNOW.  MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCES TO SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UNDER A HALF INCH OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIGHT RAIN.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENT. KMCK
WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF MVFR WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS


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