Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

A short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft moves
across the region overnight. Only an increase in high clouds that
transitions the region is expected with skies to clear out again
during the day on Monday. In the wake of the exiting upper trough,
the northwest flow strengthens somewhat which should assist in
moving the surface trough along the front range across the
forecast during the afternoon. On the back side of the surface
trough, northwest winds will increase and become gusty across
mainly the northwest sections of the forecast area. High
temperatures should also be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
during the afternoon while dewpoints in the dry downslope flow
could drop into the single digits across mainly far eastern
Colorado and the eastern Colorado border region. RH values in the
single digits are possible as a result during the early to mid
afternoon on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry conditions are expected through out the entire extended period
as an upper level ridge over the Rockies dominates the region. Highs
for the rest of the work week (Wed-Fri) will reach into the middle
to upper 60s, with some local area reaching around 70 by Friday.

Friday night, the upper level ridge will flatten enough to allow
troughing to move down through the Tri-State region. This troughing
will have an associated front with it. This front looks to be dry;
however, temperatures will be impacted over the weekend. Expect
afternoon high temperatures to reach only into the lower to middle


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 430 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Both
terminals will see southwest winds under 10kts from taf issuance
through about 07z before veering to the west-southwest at similar
speeds through late morning/early afternoon Monday. There looks to
be a 2 to 3 hour period (19z-22z) where west or west/southwest
winds could gust near 20kts, after 22z winds become west near
10kts. Cloud cover will be limited to cirrus level.


Issued at 204 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Monday afternoon in the
vicinity of the Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas tri-border region as a
result of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Very
low RH values in the single digits along with gusty west to
northwest winds on the back side of a surface trough transitioning
the forecast area during the late afternoon will be responsible
for these conditions.


KS...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ001.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ252.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for NEZ079.



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