Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 101731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MUCH WARMER AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR OR ABOVE WHAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY.
MODELS NOT ENTIRELY GETTING ALL THIS. QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
THE SNOW SLOW IT DOWN. DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING
ABOUT 14-20F FROM YESTERDAY. UNDER FULL MIXING HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...HOWEVER WE HAVE TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING SNOWPACK. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 IN NORTON COUNTY TO THE LOW/MID 70S IN
TRIBUNE AND LOETI. WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE
NORTHWESTERLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GFS/NAM TRY TO BACK
A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO CREATE SOME STRATUS CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE THAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY WITH POSSIBLY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRATUS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY DURING THE DAY
BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH LOW TO MID 40S EAST...MID 60S IN THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI
AREAS. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY FLATTENING A BIT AS IT EMERGES OFF THE
FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY BRINGING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F COOLER COMPARED TO THURSDAY. THIS
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE
PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
EAST TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH. IF WE GET FULL IMPACT OF THE 850MB
COOLING THESE TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ANOTHER 3-5F NOT
TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD IOWA WITH LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. SHOULD STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS.
LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S EAST...MID
20S WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

GFS SHOWS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW COLD AIR BACKING
INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LARGE EAST TO WEST TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERN AREAS STUCK IN THE 30S WHILE
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD GET CLOSE TO 60. DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL WARM UP WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FROM
NOW UNTIL NEAR 00Z...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 19 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES.
LATER TONIGHT A FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND GET CLOSE TO
KMCK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STRATUS MAY AFFECT THE SITE. AT
THIS TIME CHOSE TO ONLY HAVE A SCATTERED DECK IN FOR KMCK. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER


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