Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211954
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Well the eclipse has come and gone, and the clouds cooperated across
central KY and southern IN. Now is the time to start preparing for
the total solar eclipse of April 8, 2024! The shade and cooling
from the eclipse did indeed wipe out the cumulus field, so skies
remain mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures dropped anywhere
from 4-10 degrees during the eclipse! Temps are starting to
recover, however, and will top out in the low 90s this afternoon.
Heat indices will peak in the mid/upper 90s through about 6 pm
local time.

A line of convection oriented NE to SW has formed across central
IN/IL along an outflow boundary. This activity will progress
southeast toward our southern Indiana counties this evening,
weakening as it moves into a drier, less unstable environment.
Convection will also diminish with the loss of heating, but can`t
rule out showers or a rumble of thunder to the north of I-64 around
22-00z. Dry conditions are expected tonight with skies ranging from
mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows will be in the low/mid 70s.

Rain chances ramp up across southern IN/northern KY Tuesday morning
ahead of a strong cold front. A very warm, humid airmass will be in
place ahead of this boundary. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can
be expected Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Deep layer
shear around 30 kts (primarily unidirectional) supports multiple
bands of convection with a risk for damaging winds and heavy rain.
SPC`s Day 2 Slight Risk makes sense and highlights the threat well.
Highs on Tuesday are tricky and will depend on convective
development. But high temps should generally range from the mid 80s
in southern IN to around 90 in southern KY.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to persist south of the
WK/BG parkways Wednesday morning as the cold front gradually clears
the area. Much cooler, less humid air streams in behind the front,
with Wednesday highs only around 80 degrees.

The rest of the week will feature spectacular weather, and you`ll be
thinking of Fall. Canadian high pressure builds down into the Great
Lakes as the upper trough swings through. Fair weather is expected
through the end of the work week. Humidity levels will be low, with
highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s to
around 60. Rain chances will increase Sunday but especially into
early next week as a low pressure system advances toward the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

VFR is expected through the TAF period. A SCT cu field has been
bubbling up around 5 kft. In addition, scattered thin cirrus
continue to stream overhead at times. Winds will remain out of the
southwest this afternoon around 8 kts before diminishing toward
sunset.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the TAF sites toward
18z Tuesday and on into the evening and overnight hours. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will be possible as a cold front sweeps through the
region into Wednesday morning, along with vsbys reductions in
heavier showers.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation...EBW



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