Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 091727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1227 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Latest visible satellite shows extensive strato-cu clouds across
southern Indiana across much of central Kentucky and the Bluegrass
region. RAP sounding and 12z ILX and ILN sounding show this deck
lies within the preferred DGZ to generate light snow flurries, which
has been occurring intermittently all morning. Since these clouds
will likely persist some into the afternoon hours with little change
in temperatures, extended the scattered flurry wording in the
weather grids through mid/late afternoon. Otherwise, very minor
changes to the forecast.


.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Scattered flurries and isld snow showers will continue through the
morning hours courtesy of a vort max in the upper trough and a thick
low level cloud layer. Expect a dusting at best from this very light
snow activity especially on rooftops and other elevated sfcs.

Low clouds will retreat north this afternoon but should hold temps
at bay for the first half of the day.  Thus, only expecting highs in
the upper 20s/lower 30s this afternoon.

Tonight, expect winds to become lighter with a sfc high pressure
center moving through KY.  This will allow for prime rad cooling
conditions and low temps in the mid teens to around 20.

For Sat, low clouds may linger over southern IN for a part of the
day with the rest of the area only partly cloudy.  Thick cloud cover
will roll back into the area Sat night as the next weather system
approaches.  High temps for Sat look to range through the 30s.


.Long Term...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Saturday Night - Monday...

Low pressure system progged to move from the southern Plains to the
upper Midwest Sun/Mon still looks to bring our area mainly a cold
rain starting as early as Sun morning/afternoon.  The mid range
models continue to trend slower so the start time may continue to
move later in the day Sun and with less of a threat of a brief
wintry mix at onset.  Overall rainfall amounts look to range from
0.25-0.75 Sun/Mon with rains moving out by midday Mon.

Temps will be warmer for the first part of the week.  Highs look to
range through the 40s Sun and 40s/lower 50s Mon.  Temps shouldn`t
drop off much Sun night with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Forecast confidence is low for the mid week time frame with long
range model solns varying on the timing of an upper shortwave and
sfc cold front passage as well as QPF associated with it.  The
blended guidance gives multiple low POP chances Tues/Wed but do
anticipate a dry period in there somewhere.

Ptype will be in question with the mid week weather system(s).
However, overall temp profiles on the 0Z runs have resulted in more
of a mix or rain vs a period of mostly light snow.  Still much
uncertainty exists and will need to refine many forecast factors
in coming forecasts.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Bkn to Ovc stratocu deck will persist for a while longer this
afternoon at SDF/LEX, although it is showing signs of beginning to
erode from the SW on visible satellite. BWG has already gone
Few/Sct, so will start and keep them VFR through this cycle.

Expect SDF to go VFR around 430-5PM EST, with LEX following an hour
later. On and off flurries should persist until the return to VFR,
however visibilities are not expected to be impacted below 7 SM.

A steady NW surface wind holds through the evening, before
slackening off and going light and variable overnight. A few mid
level clouds will also be noted later tonight through Saturday


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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