Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 251704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Consensus of near-term guidance calling for highs in the mid 60s
today. That is close to the ongoing forecast, but an updated zone
product has a few counties a category higher than in the previous
forecast. Those products are out. Have some cirrus starting to
filter in from the northwest.  Most are starting out with clear
skies this morning, but we will see the increasing high clouds all
areas by this afternoon.

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Dry weather remains in store for the short term period. For today,
the region will be on the southern edge of high pressure nosing in
from the north. This will bring mostly clear skies and easterly
winds. High temperatures will be right around the normals for this
time of year, ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.

High pressure will shift east of the region by Wednesday morning
with winds shifting to southerly. Clouds will be on the increase
Wednesday ahead of a cold front expected to move through on
Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday will be quite a bit warmer than
today, topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations in
southern KY could reach 80.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 314 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2016

The long term period will begin with a chance for some rain as a
cold front approaches and moves through the lower Ohio Valley. The
cold front looks to move into southern IN early Thursday morning and
slowly sink through central KY during the day. Ahead of this front,
isolated to scattered showers and storms will move in late Wednesday
night. Coverage looks to decrease as the precipitation moves east,
though there may be a second area of rain that develops across
southeast central KY overnight. Any showers or storms that do
develop should move out Friday morning with high pressure building
in and bringing dry weather by the afternoon. Temps on Thursday will
be tricky and depend on how fast the front moves through and cooler
air filters in, but highs should range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Dry weather will continue on Friday under the influence of the high
pressure. The models continue to struggle with the weekend. The
latest runs keep most of the energy and moisture to the north of the
area, which would keep us dry. Will trend toward the drier forecast
for now. The other question will be how warm we will get. Strong
southwesterly flow will set up on Saturday. Given this and weak
ridging aloft, temps look to climb into the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday and Monday will be a bit more tricky for temps and will depend
on whether a cold front swings through (ECMWF) or not (GFS). Given
the inconsistency in guidance over the last few days, will continue
with a blend of guidance for temps for now.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Winds will generally be
from the east at 5-10 knots during the day, but weaken some at
night, and then become more southerly during the day Wednesday.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER
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