Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 231058
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
658 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016
Well the dry air was nice while it lasted. Today will start the
transition back to higher dewpoint air. Rain chances will stay down
during the first part of this transition, a few models suggest some
light QPF toward daybreak Wednesday. A model blend suggests a 10-15%
chance across the region, but given that it likely would be very
light and have some dry air to overcome first, keeping pops this
low seems reasonable.
For the day Wednesday, the question mark will be how strong the
ridge aloft is over the Deep South. The global model consensus is
for the rains to hold north of the Ohio River. The ARW however has
convection diving southeast across the river during the afternoon.
The airmass is pretty juicy, so a boundary coming into that region
could spark some storms. Will bump our pops here a little to
account for this threat.
The increasing low-level moisture will mean a more muggy day
Wednesday, with heat indices rising back into the 90s.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016
Ridge of high pressure aloft looks to move north slowly Thursday and
Friday...to a position over the region to end the work week. This
should limit our rains chances to isolated to widely scattered
coverage Thursday and then just isolated Friday. Not much changes in
the structure of this ridge over us for the weekend, though models
continue to try and spit out some rain chances each day. Pattern
looks more like a hot one with isolated peak heating storms. Some
subtle weaknesses could occur in the ridge, allowing for pockets of
better coverage, but confidence in any structure is low at this
point to go higher than slight chances. Blended guidance goes a
little higher for Monday, and the GEFS mean position of the ridge
being subtlely farther south would allow for more scattered coverage.
As for temperatures, if that ridge does plant itself very close to
the region, then we will get fairly hot. Blended guidance seemed to
low, so went warmer, especially for our urban areas.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016
High pressure in control over the region will continue the VFR
conditions across central Kentucky. Brief fog might continue at BWG
for the next hour but should quickly dissipate after sunrise.
Otherwise plan on clear skies and light/variable winds. Cirrus
clouds will increase through the end of the TAF period.