Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
640 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

Quiet weather for the region early this morning, save for some light
south to southwest winds that are keeping us warmer than the past
few nights. Expect another sunny day with temperatures continuing to
warmup, roughly 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. Later today, an
upper low will develop over east TX and head east along the Gulf
coast through Saturday. At the surface high pressure also will head
east from the Deep South to the Atlantic. In doing so, it will start
pumping in some Gulf moisture to the Ohio Valley. A few models
continue to squeeze out some light precip in a weak deformation band
north of the upper low. Whether rain comes out or now, we can expect
increasing cloudiness and thus a brief cap on our warmup.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

The cap on the warming will lift again Sunday, as we see brief
increases in thicknesses as well as stronger southerly winds ahead
of our next storm system. The focus for precip with this system
continues to be during the day Monday. A tight pressure gradient
around the associated cold front will mean breezy conditions Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Shear profiles are pretty impressive
Monday along the front, but still no confidence in whether we will
realize any surface-based instability to take advantage of that

Areal average rainfall with this front look to range from 0.25-0.75
inches. Latest NOHRSC snowfall analysis indicates less than an inch
of liquid equivalent in our snowpack...and a lot of this will melt
off ahead of the rains. Thus not expecting any flooding concerns at
this time.

Behind that front, we may see some wrap-around moisture across our
southeast Indiana and Bluegrass Kentucky counties Tuesday before we
dry out for Wed/Thu. Temperatures behind this front will actually
drop to normal, so this 7-day forecast generally has readings at or
above normal.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

VFR weather is expected throughout today and tonight. Mainly clear
skies are expected. We`ll start to see a few more cirrus filter
south toward the Ohio River tonight. Breezy southwest winds of 10-15
kts are expected today, diminishing slightly after sunset.

Confidence in VFR goes down Saturday morning. Low-level moisture
advecting northward from the Gulf of Mexico will result in an
increase in stratocumulus clouds. BWG will see the lower ceilings
first, but the latest guidance is suggesting low-end VFR through
12z. SDF should see lower clouds move in around 15-18z Saturday. All
the TAF sites will see deteriorating ceilings Saturday afternoon.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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