Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
705 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A sharp upper level trough will push through the region today
bringing isld showers to the area and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder.  This scenario certainly looks to be verifying downstream
over IL early this morning.  The better chance for an isld
shower/storm should come during the first half of the day today.
Other than that, expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Lows tonight will range through the 60s.

For Sunday, an Orange Air Quality Alert has been issued due to the
muggy and rather stagnant airmass in the Louisville Metro area.
Sensitive groups may be affected. Sunday looks to be a dry day with
high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Eclipse Day...

Upper level ridging looks to be in place for Eclipse Day leaving our
region dry.  Storm complexes may be ongoing well to our NNW or S and
could provide some thin cirrus from time to time.  Some cu are
possible on Monday, but brief cooling from the eclipse itself may
help to limit diurnal cu formation.

The day is likely to be dry and hot, with max temps around 90
degrees. Folks planning to be outside for an extended period should
dress for the weather and stay hydrated, as heat indices will likely
reach the low-mid 90s just before and after the eclipse.


A cold front will push through the region from northwest to
southeast Tuesday/Tues night bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Some of these storms could be strong in nature.  High pressure will
then come in with dry conditions late Wed through the end of the
week. Heat index values should again climb into at least the middle
and possibly upper 90s Tuesday afternoon, but then cooler conditions
can be expected for the latter half of the week. High temps in the
upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the 50s with lower humidity will be
a welcome change.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A series of short waves embedded in a broad trof moving into the
Great Lakes and Ohio valley was providing clouds and some convection
this morning.  The first wave was producing mainly just SCT-BKN
altocumulus above 120, while the second wave had generated a few
thunderstorms in southern Illinois.

If the storms in southern Illinois hold together, they would pass to
the south of SDF starting around 14Z and near LEX around 16Z.  For
now will continue with VC in the TAF, but have added thunder for
this issuance as opposed to earlier VCSH thinking.

Once the aforementioned short wave works its way through, the only
other potentially significant weather through this forecast period
is the possibility of MVFR fog after 21/09Z.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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