Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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569
FXUS63 KLMK 182333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015

The large area of light rain that has been moving through the region
today has finally dissipated. However, scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms continue. Visible satellite shows some breaks in the
clouds developing, mainly across south central Kentucky this
afternoon. This area will have the best chance for scattered storm
development this afternoon given enough heating. Any storms that
develop could have brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but do not
expect any severe weather at this point. Further to the north across
southern IN and north central Kentucky scattered showers will
continue this afternoon and early evening with just an isolated
chance for thunderstorms.

The cold front this afternoon stretches from Lake Michigan down
through Illinois into southeast Missouri. This front will slowly
move eastward this evening and into southern Indiana by around
midnight. It will continue through the rest of the forecast area by
around daybreak Tuesday. A few showers may develop along this line
this afternoon, but they should dissipate late this evening.
Therefore, have quickly dried out the forecast overnight after the
loss of daytime heating.

Low temperatures tonight will vary from the mid 50s in the northwest
to the mid 60s in the southeast where the front will be last to pass
through. Highs tomorrow will be cooler in the wake of the front,
particularly across southern IN where temps look to top out near 70
in some places. Lows tomorrow night will be quite a bit cooler,
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015

Wednesday - Friday...

The latter half of the work week should be pretty uneventful with
temperatures below climatological norms.  An upper level disturbance
will bring us a chance for rain showers late Wed/Wed night.  Any
locations that receive rainfall should amount to a quarter inch or
less.

Cool Canadian high pressure will settle into the region behind
Tuesday`s fropa.  This will result in high temperatures Wed-Fri in
the mid 60s to low 70s!  Lows should range through the mid 40s and
through the 50s with the coldest night being Thurs night/Fri morning.

Saturday - Monday...

Southwest flow will increase this weekend with upper level ridging
moving in as well.  Highs Sat should reach the mid to upper 70s.

On and off rounds of showers and storms will become increasingly
likely starting Sat night as we become entrenched in a messy, humid
southwest flow containing multiple upper level shortwaves.  Thus,
will carry precipitation chances through the beginning of next
week.  Timing of individual waves is too difficult to pinpoint this
far out.  Wind profiles don`t look real impressive at this point and
instability will be dependent on the timing of each wave.  Don`t see
any real obvious severe threat for Sun/Mon at this point but can`t
rule out strong to severe storms early next week depending on how
things evolve.

Temperatures for the beginning of next week will return to slightly
above normal with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 730 PM EDT Mon May 18 2015

Convection more hit or miss this afternoon thanks to cloud cover
most of the day. Still could see some showers at the LEX/BWG
terminals over the next few hours. Then we could another isolated
shower pop up along the front as it moves through in the overnight.
Think chance of a shower hitting a terminal is low enough to keep
out of the forecast, however more moist low levels could bring some
MVFR conditions, either in cigs or vsby ahead of and along the
front. Models are showing more sinking air in that airmass over KSDF
so have kept them VFR for now. Front should get into SDF around 8Z
and BWG/LEX around daybreak Tuesday. Conditions will improve quickly
behind the front, with northwest winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





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