Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 262303

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Shortwave upper ridging pulling east of the Ohio Valley, with a
respectable impulse swinging into the Great Lakes. A band of showers
extending from NW Indiana to near STL is making steady eastward
progress, but is heading into a less favorable environment.

Mid-level moisture will increase this evening but will take much of
the night for sufficient low-level moisture for rain. As a result,
precip will be spotty and light, so will limit POPs to roughly 30%,
mainly in southern Indiana, and with only a few hundredths of QPF.

Front will push through Thursday morning, but with only slight
chance POPs from around Louisville over into the Bluegrass as
moisture will be quite shallow by then.

Clouds and southerly flow overnight will keep min temps unseasonably
mild, but post-frontal cold advection on Thursday will limit any
diurnal recovery. The cooler air mass will be well in place Thu
night, with lows closer to climo.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Warm and Dry Pattern Continues...

Strong upper ridge from the Mexican desert into West Texas will
expand eastward into the Deep South. Progressive northern stream
disturbances will scoot past well to our north, dragging the
occasional dry cold front into the Ohio Valley, but these systems
will be moisture-starved and have a difficult time making a dent in
the ridge. Only the system on Sunday appears to have enough
dynamical forcing to squeeze out any precip, and that only justifies
a slight chance roughly along and north of I-64.

Temperatures will run above normal throughout the period, with a
decent shot at touching 80 at least on Saturday. As we head into
early next week, model temp guidance tends to diverge and we are
currently splitting the difference. If the warmer ECMWF verifies, we
could have several days of highs in the lower 80s, which would be
very close to record highs. More details if confidence should


.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A weakening band of showers will approach southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky late this evening into the overnight hours. An
isolated shower or two is possible at SDF but ceilings are expected
to remain well into VFR.

As the surface front crosses the region Thursday morning, there are
higher probabilities of lower ceilings and a few showers, mainly at
SDF and possibly at LEX. Good consensus that SDF and LEX will see a
period of above fuel-alternate ceilings before lifting back up into
VFR by afternoon. BWG is expected to remain VFR through the TAF

Winds will transition from southwesterly tonight to westerly and
northwesterly Thursday morning, remaining such through the period.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
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