Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
132 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A strato-cu field has started to develop across eastern portions of
the CWA where combination of surface heating and higher 850mb
moisture has contributed to cloud development. Forecast soundings
keep the strato-cu field mainly along and east of I-65 today, so
have updated the forecast to include some increased cloud cover.
Otherwise rest of forecast is on track.


.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Patchy Frost Possible Later Tonight/Tuesday Morning...

High pressure will continue to build into the area through today,
with a steady cold advection component persisting behind the front.
This will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 40s by
dawn. As we move through the day, partly cloudy skies and the steady
north surface wind will help to keep temperatures confined to the
upper 50s and low 60s.

The combination of clear skies an calm winds tonight will allow for
good radiational cooling. Most lows should bottom out in the upper
30s and low 40s. Expect to see some patchy frost in the sheltered
valleys, and across southern IN where the best cooling should occur.
It is worth noting that a very calm axis of near-surface winds will
stretch across southern IN and north central KY into the Bluegrass.
Seeing this adds confidence that these area will see the coolest
temps, and have the best shot at some patchy frost.

Tuesday will be another dry day with sunny skies and temps a
couple/few degrees warmer. Most spots should see highs in the mid
60s by afternoon.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

High pressure at the surface and increasing upper ridging by the end
of the week will continue to keep things dry across our region.
After near normal temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday, temperatures will climb into the low and mid 70s by the
end of the week. By the weekend, highs in the mid and upper 70s
should be more common. Could again see a few upper 30s in our
eastern sheltered locations on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, lows will mostly be in the 40s through the end of the
work week, with milder lows in the low to mid 50s through the

The next chance for rain could arrive by early next week as a
frontal boundary tries to impinge into our area against the strong
dry airmass in place. Will hold off on any rain chances through
Sunday, throwing out the outlier Canadian model that has the front
pushing through our area over the weekend.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Current GOES-16 visible imagery shows diurnal few-sct statocumulus
clouds over west parts of central KY and south-central IN, with sct-
bkn clouds over eastern two-thirds of region. Bases are VFR and will
remain that way this afternoon. VFR conditions then expected through
remainder of forecast period. Clouds this afternoon will gradually
dissipate late this afternoon resulting in a clear/mostly clear sky
tonight and Tuesday. Northerly surface winds of 5-9 kts this
afternoon will become calm or light NE tonight, then SE to S around
5 kts Tuesday.




Short Term...BJS
Long Term....BJS
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