Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 172029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
329 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A slow moving cold front continues to make progress eastward across
the forecast area.  Along and ahead of the front in breaks in the
cloud cover, SW-W winds were gusting up to around 30 mph.  Expect
these gusts to continue until sunset.  All rain looks to be mainly
done over the area except for a few isld showers near the Lake
Cumberland region.

For tonight, plentiful low level moisture should stick around
trapped under a good inversion.  Decent low level lapse rates
depicted combined with the low level moisture will likely result in
some patchy drizzle or maybe even a few isld sprinkles or showers.
Think that mostly a drizzle scenario will play out tonight so went
with that in the forecast. Overnight lows should bottom out in the
upper 30s/lower 40s.

For Wednesday, expect a dry day but with low clouds sticking around
for much of the day.  We may see a brief period of partly sunny
skies late in the day though.  Wed highs should be cooler behind the
front in the upper 40s/lower 50s.  Lows Wed night will range from
the mid 30s to lower 40s.


.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Above normal temperatures and frequent rounds of rain during
extended period...

Thursday - Saturday...

A strong upper level shortwave will move north through the region
Thu/Thu night bringing more rounds of rain.  Some instability is
possible with this wave so did continue slight t-storm chances Thu
night into early Fri morning.

The latter part of the day Fri and Sat will feature a dry,
unseasonably warm period of weather.  Highs should reach the 60s
both days with some models hinting at low 70s for Sat.  Despite the
warming temps, clouds will still be plentiful.

Sunday - Tuesday...

Another upper low looks to move through the region early next week
bringing more rounds of rain Sun-Tues.  The best chance for t-storms
looks to be Sun with this particular setup although that may need to
be refined in coming periods.  Mild temps will continue Sun/Mon
with cooler temps by Tues behind this weather system.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Low pressure over Lake Erie will drag a weak cold front through the
CWA today and keep shower activity east of TAF sites. While drier
air will work in aloft, forecast soundings keep moisture locked in
near surface for most of the day. Visible satellite has revealed a
break in the clouds over parts of Kentucky, and this should allow
brief VFR cigs/vis this afternoon. Expect the low clouds to move
back into the TAF sites by sunset this evening, with most sites
between IFR/MVFR cigs. Currently thinking visibilities should remain
in VFR category, but might have to watch KBWG this evening as there
is the potential for minor visibility restrictions.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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