Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 231710

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
110 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper ridging will strengthen through the short term, keeping us dry
and very warm. Went a bit above guidance for max temps given
increasing heights today/tomorrow and afternoon temps the past few
days. Dew points plunged into the 50s across southern Indiana and
north central Kentucky yesterday. Similar mixing is expected today
and tomorrow, so went below guidance for afternoon dew points each

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Upper ridging will persist Saturday night and Sunday and then will
begin to break down as a strong upper low moves across southern
Canada and toward the Great Lakes region. The incoming trof and its
surface cold front interacting with slightly unstable air and
precipitable water amounts of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will result in
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys on Monday.

There is great disagreement among the meteorological specifics in
the extended which is often the case when the models grapple with a
major pattern change. The general idea, though, is that troffing
will dominate the eastern U.S. and Canada through mid week. This
will bring us much cooler temperatures with afternoon readings not
making it out of the 70s Tuesday through Thursday. A couple of the
cooler spots in the area may briefly dip below 50 Thursday morning.
As for precipitation chances, it looks like a mostly dry week after
the Monday cold front clears the region, with Pacific high pressure
building in from the west. Also, upper ridging may begin to build
back in by the end of the forecast period.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals this afternoon and
evening with generally light and variable winds.  Main aviation
concern for the overnight will be fog formation again at KBWG and
perhaps over at KLEX.  For now plan on running some MVFR at KLEX
late tonight and towards sunrise.  For KBWG, MVFR conditions look to
start around 24/06Z with some IFR conditions due to fog between
24/09-12Z.  The outlook for Saturday is VFR and light winds at all
the terminals.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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