Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 041713
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1213 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
Updated at 1147 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016
Just did a quick update to the hourly T/Td elements to bring them in
closer to current observations. Did also update the cloud cover
grids to bring in clearing from the west a little earlier. Visible
satellite imagery showing clearing line working into our western
counties now and this clearing will work eastward through the
afternoon. Afternoon temps will stay in the 30s and then cool into
the 20s this evening.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 1151 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016
A large area of low clouds will move through the region today, with
the back edge of the clouds slowly progressing across the LMK CWA
from northwest to southeast. Highs will range from the mid 30s to
By tonight skies will be clear and winds light as a ridge of high
pressure moves through. Temperatures will tumble into the lower and
On Friday a cold front will cross the area, but it will be very weak
and starved of moisture. Only some high clouds are expected. High
temperatures will mostly be in the middle 40s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016
General weak surface ridging and a blocked Gulf will provide us with
benign weather through Sunday. A clipper will cross the Great Lakes
Saturday night/Sunday but its deep moisture will stay to our north.
High temperatures over the weekend will be around 50.
Another clipper will dive into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
and cross the Great Lakes Sunday night-Monday night as a deep upper
trof digs into the eastern United States. Tuesday-Wednesday it
should lift off to the northeast.
This clipper will be much stronger with better upper support than
the previous one and will have a much larger pool of deep moisture
to work with, resulting in precipitation chances Sunday night
through Tuesday night. The precipitation should start out as mostly
light rain Sunday night and Monday, then transition to light snow
Monday night through Tuesday night as colder air gets pulled in from
central Canada. Given currently progged temps and QPF, some light
snow accumulations will be possible.
High temperatures on Monday should be in the 40s, but by Wednesday
we won`t be getting out of the 20s with lows that morning in the
teens (or colder).
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1206 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016
Stratus deck right around 3 kft will begin to lift and scatter out
this afternoon. This will happen at BWG around 18-19z, 19-20z at SDF
and closer to 20z at LEX. High pressure will then settle overhead
for the evening and overnight, providing VFR conditions, clear skies
and lighter winds. A light south wind will develop late in the TAF
period as the high moves to the east.