Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 232314
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
714 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion and Forecast Update...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 713 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Remnants of Cindy continue to push eastward across central Kentucky
this evening.  Back edge of the precipitation is now clearing the I-
65 corridor.  Not much has been seen upstream, so the threat of
heavy rainfall west of I-65 seems to be lowering with each passing
hour.

On the other hand, strong convection with torrential rainfall and
gusty winds will affect the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky for
the next several hours.  Rainfall rates of around 2in/hr are
expected as this activity moves through the Lexington metro area.
Numerous Flash Flood Warnings have been issued across the Bluegrass
region and flash flooding is expected.  In areas south of the
Bluegrass Parkway, strong line of convection will continue to push
eastward.  Gusty winds of 50-60 MPH combined with heavy rainfall
will likely result in some knockdown of trees and powerlines as this
activity spreads eastward toward the I-75 corridor.  Localized shear
due to the remnants of Cindy passing overhead may result in some
isolated tornado activity. However, instability will decrease with
time this evening, leading through a lesser tornado threat.

We would like to emphasize that Flash Flooding will be the main
threat for the next few hours across central Kentucky.  Those living
in flood prone areas should be on the look out for rising water and
be prepared to take immediate action if flash flooding occurs.

The rainfall is likely to push east of the I-75 corridor by mid to
late evening and the flash flood threat will diminish with time.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

At mid afternoon the center of Cindy`s circulation was between
Bowling Green and Paducah, heading to the ENE. Moderate to heavy
rain will accompany the low is it progresses across southern
Kentucky, moving into eastern Kentucky by mid-evening. Though the
chances of flooding have diminished, locally heavy downpours will
still be possible. After coordinating with JKL and OHX, will keep
FFA as is, but the headlines will most likely be able to be
cancelled before their scheduled expiration time.

Low level shear has weakened a bit over eastern sections of the CWA
over the past few hours. Shear remains high closer to Cindy, but a
thick overcast and steady moderate to heavy rain are limiting
instability there. Still, cells east of I-65 will have to be watched
for low level rotation over the next few hours.

A cold front coming in from the northwest, accompanied by widely
scattered convection, will enter the region this evening and
gradually push the rain out. South central Indiana will be dry by
11pm, and central Kentucky before dawn Saturday.

Patchy valley fog may form near Lake Cumberland around sunrise
Saturday, though cirrus may help to keep it at bay.

Saturday and Saturday night will be dry with afternoon temperatures
peaking around 80. Lows in the 50s Saturday night will be about 10
degrees cooler than normal.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Most of the long term will be dry as high pressure slowly moves from
the Plains to off the Carolina coast. Monday and Tuesday will be the
picks of the week with plenty of sunshine and highs only in the 70s.
(By comparison, record highs for those days are in the 101-105
degree range.) As the anticyclone moves off to the east,
temperatures will warm back up into the 80s for afternoon
temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

A cold front approaching from the west may bring some scattered
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region late in the week,
though it looks like the front may have trouble making it very far
to the east as it runs into the west side of the aforementioned high
to our southeast.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 708 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Remnants of Cindy continue to move eastward across south-central KY
this evening.  Back edge of precipitation is clearing KSDF right now
and has already cleared KBWG.  Extremely heavy rainfall and low
visibilities will affect KLEX for the next 1-2 hours as a band of
heavy convection pushes through the terminal.  Convection is
expected to clear the region in the 24/02-04Z time frame with winds
shifting to the northwest.  Some low clouds will likely linger into
the late night hours with clearing taking place after 24/05-06Z. VFR
conditions are expected during the later half of the overnight
period and into the day on Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Update............MJ
Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ



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