Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 031030
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 3015
Slow moving upper level low continues to churn across eastern
Tennessee this morning. Plenty of low-level moisture remains in
place across the region which is responsible for the low clouds this
morning. Some clearing did take place late yesterday across our
southern IN counties. However, as the the low-level flow has
shifted to the east-northeast this morning, the cloudiness has
retrograded back to the west once again. Where skies are still
clear, readings have dropped into the lower 50s, elsewhere
temperatures were in the mid-upper 50s. Not really expecting much
change in the sensible weather from now through dawn with mostly
cloudy skies remaining in place and temperatures remaining in the
For today, the latest model data solutions continue to be optimistic
about cloudiness and low-level moisture scouring out. Given that
things did not clear out all that much yesterday and that we`ll
still have a low-level thermal trough over us, we feel that a
slightly more pessimistic cloudy forecast is probably going to work
out better for today. Still think that we`ll see some partial
clearing this afternoon...mainly in the western sections where drier
air is already in place. Temperatures will be tricky and likely in
a gradient of some sort from east to west. Highs will likely top
out in the upper 60s to the low 70s in the east with low-mid 70s in
the west. Generally trended temps closer to the NAM raw guidance
which has verified quite well since late last week. Could also see
an isolated shower out across the east today, but feel that best
chances will be across far eastern KY.
For tonight, we should see a continued clearing trend with dry
conditions. Lows will generally be in the mid-upper 50s in most
locations. Moisture will attempt to work back into the region as we
head into Thursday and some diurnally driven convection will be
possible in the afternoon...mainly east of US 27/127. Temperatures
should also be a bit warmer as well as guidance continues to suggest
readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Some mid 80s will be
possible in areas west of I-65.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2015
The slow moving upper level low will be moving offshore during the
first few periods of the long term. Meanwhile, ridging will build
across Texas. The forecast area will be on the northeast edge of
this ridging in generally northwesterly flow. This flow will become
more zonal by the end of the long term.
Thursday night should be dry as diurnal storms from Thursday
dissipate with the setting sun. Isolated to scattered storms are
expected to pop up again on Friday as temperatures rise into the mid
80s. A weak low pressure system will cross the region Friday night
into Saturday morning. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany this
feature as it moves through, but do not expect widespread
precipitation. In its wake, there should be a relative lull in
precip Saturday night.
Beyond Saturday, confidence in the forecast decreases as some
significant model differences become apparent. On Sunday southerly
flow will be in place as the region is in the warm sector ahead of a
cold front. Isolated to scattered storms should initiate with
daytime heating. The cold front will approach the area Sunday night
into Monday. The big differences in the model come in Monday into
Tuesday as the ECMWF brings the front completely through Monday
bringing fairly widespread storms. However, the latest GFS hangs the
front up just north of the area and results in more scattered
coverage. Whether the front moves through or not will have am impact
for mid week as well with regards to the precip chances. For now
will continue with a model blend which results in scattered storms
chances off and on through Tuesday. Highs will generally be in the
mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2015
Early morning fog channel imagery continues to show that low-level
stratus has expanded westward overnight and all the terminals remain
entrenched in MVFR ceiling. We expect MVFR ceilings to persist
through the morning hours with some lifting of ceilings after
lunchtime and into the early afternoon hours. KSDF and KBWG should
scour out first with KLEX seeing clouds scouring out later this
afternoon/evening. Surface winds today will remain out of the east
to the east-northeast.