Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 081955
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

...Winter Weather Advisory Late This Afternoon - Tuesday Evening...

Have a healthy slug of snow moving into our northwest forecast area
this hour. Upstream reports have been of ligth to moderate snow, but
no significant accumulations.  After further coordination with
surrounding offices, will continue the current advisory in our
eastern half but a SPS for point west, as the snow falls during the
evening rush. Did extend a few counties west on our southern end to
match up better with OHX for their advisory tonight.

Chances for snow showers will continue overnight and into Tuesday.
Road temperatures should fall overnight, thus any showers that do
fall should accumulate on untreated roadways. Temperatures should
stay in the 20s Tuesday and bottom out in the teens Tuesday night.
Still have accumulations through 00Z Wednesday at 2-3 inches over
the Bluegrass and around an inch in the western part of the current
advisory area.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Cold airmass remains in place Wednesday, with snow showers tapering
off from west to east through the day. Thursday, the GFS has come on
board with the 00Z Euro cancelling the Thursday clipper system
affecting our area. However, now the NAM and Canadian are showing it
that early. The 09Z SREF has a weak signal for it as well, but in
general it leans more toward the GFS/Euro solution. With some signal
for it in a few models, will keep pops just under slight chance, in
line with previous forecast.

For Friday, the Euro and GEM continue with their wetter solution
over our northern forecast area, whereas the GFS has now gone dry.
Will go with the blended model solution here, keeping in some lower-
end chances for precip for now. Continuing this thinking, our
weekend should be well below normal for temperatures until high
pressure can get off to our east to start the next work week. Model
divergence here means a continued call for a model blend, as the GFS
comes in with another front and a large moisture field Monday,
whereas the 00Z Euro does not have as much moisture.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1232 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2016

Another upper disturbance will rotate through the TAF sites this
afternoon and early evening, bringing numerous rain/snow showers
despite surface temperatures being in the upper 30s to around 40.
Some of the snow showers will be moderate to briefly heavy with
quick light accumulations possible. Winds will also be steady out of
the W and WSW with gusts up around 20 to 25 mph at times. Snow
showers may be heavy enough to reduce visibilities below a mile at
times, although are too spotty to mention prevailing for now. Will
amend as necessary when better returns approach a terminal.

Have included best timing for most intense snow shower activity with
BWG/SDF through sunset. LEX will be later from around sunset through
Midnight. After that, lingering light snow showers are expected to
be around, although will keep vis up. Ceilings will range between
MVFR/VFR in the evening, then dropping to low MVFR toward dawn on
Tuesday. LEX will have the best shot at a period of IFR this
evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday for
     KYZ029>043-045>049-054>057-064>067-075>078-081-082.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for INZ078-079-
     091-092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........BJS


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