Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 230504

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
104 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure centered over the region this afternoon will shift to
the east overnight into Tuesday. However, ridging aloft and the high
pressure should continue to exert enough influence that southern IN
and central KY will remain dry through Tuesday night.

For tonight, we will have one more night of cool temperatures. Lows
will once again range from the mod 50s to lower 60s in urban areas.
Some valley fog may form towards dawn in east central KY, similar to
this morning. Southerly return flow will set up tomorrow with highs
expected to be a few degrees warmer than today. Wednesday morning`s
lows will also be warmer than tonight in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

For the second half of the week into the weekend, upper level
ridging will remain in place across the southeastern CONUS. The
lower Ohio Valley will remain on the northern edge of this ridging.

For Wednesday, a shortwave will move through the flow north of the
Ohio River. This could bring some showers and storms on Wednesday,
mainly to southern IN and north central KY. Coverage looks to be
isolated to widely scattered at best under the influence of the
upper level ridging. By Thursday a slow moving front will begin to
sink towards the region. Again, isolated to scattered storms are
expected to form in the afternoon across mainly the same region as
on Wednesday.

For Friday, the cold front looks to slowly sink south through the
region. Scattered storms look to develop across southern IN and
central KY as the front sinks through. Moisture is not overly
impressive and the GFS has been way overdoing precipitation chances
lately, so will lean towards the drier ECMWF on Friday and cap
precip chances at 30%.

Behind the front Saturday looks to be dry as high pressure noses in
from the north. The models are trending a bit wetter for Sunday, so
will introduce just a slight chance for storms for the latter half
of the weekend.

We will see a return to hot and humid weather through the long term.
There may be a slight drop in dewpoints Saturday behind the front
into the upper 60s, but for most of the period they will be in the
lower 70s. Highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90 with lows in
the lower to mid 70s.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016

High pressure in control over the region will continue the VFR
conditions across central Kentucky. Light MVFR ground fog is
possible again at BWG, but otherwise plan on clear skies and
light/variable winds.  Cirrus clouds will increase toward the end of
the TAF period.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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