Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 312320
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

QUIET SHORT TERM EXPECTED...AS RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD. WITH LACK OF RAIN TO COOL US
OFF...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY RISE. WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A
FEW 90S TOMORROW FOR HIGHS, WITH READINGS AREAWIDE 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. READINGS EACH NIGHT WILL BE SIMILARLY
ABOVE NORMAL MORE BECAUSE OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS.

THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE AGAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES...CLOSER TO A STALLED AND SMALL UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA. HAVE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE UP THERE FOR THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER.

THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES COULD COUPLE WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS OUR NE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS EVIDENT ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL ELECT TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST IN COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORS. WE`LL GO DRY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT AGAIN CAN`T RULE OUT
A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS OUR NE.

HIGHS DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. SOME GUIDANCE VALUES TAKE US INTO
THE MID 90S, HOWEVER H85 TEMPS WILL ONLY BE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY
AND WE ARE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 80S. WILL HOLD OFF ON
THE BIGGER NUMBERS FOR NOW.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRIES TO
MAKE IT INTO OUR EAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTIONED, HAVE QUESTIONS OVER WHETHER THIS MOISTURE WOULD MAKE IT
OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND WHETHER OVERALL SUBSIDENT PATTERN WOULD
SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

TEMPS DURING THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT COOLER IF INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/CONVECTION ARE REALIZED, OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO EXPECT UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH LIGHT WINDS AND QUIET
WEATHER. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE ISSUE TONIGHT. WILL GO
WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST KEEPING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF
LEX AND SDF. WILL TAKE BWG INTO MVFR FOR THE TYPICAL 09Z-13Z TIME
FRAME. WILL REFRAIN FROM TAKING BWG AS LOW AS THEY GOT THIS MORNING
SINCE WE HAVE ONE MORE DRY DAY UNDER OUR BELT AND TEMPS SHOULD STAY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEWS AND CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........BJS
AVIATION..........13



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