Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 30P AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The most notable thing about the short term forecast is how
UNeventful it will be: few - if any - clouds, no extreme
temperatures, no strong winds...need I go on? Maximum and minimum
temperatures will generally be within a few degrees of seasonal
norms for the rest of the weekend, so in general, a nice fall
weekend for the Ohio Valley.

What is really unusual about this forecast is that all of this
uneventful weather will occur despite a cold frontal passage. A
surface ridge stretching from the Great Lakes to Houston this
morning will drift east and give weaken, giving way to the cold
front Sunday night. With no humidity to work with though, the main
change this will bring will be wind direction and a reinforcement of
the cool, dry air already in place over the area.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s. A few renegade readings in the
upper 30s are not out of the question, but won`t be low enough for
frost.  Ahead of the cold front, Highs on Sunday will warm back into
the lower to mid 70s, with minimum temperatures by Monday morning
dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.Long Term (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Dry NW flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will dominate the
early to mid week pattern after a dry cold front passage on Sunday
night. Expect a continued dry period with high temperatures around
normal (~65 to 70) on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures
will rise around 5 to 8 degrees above normal with the aid of
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system. Lows in the upper 40s
to around 50 are expected on Sunday night, but the coldest will be
Monday night under good radiational cooling conditions. Look for 40
to 45. We`ll see ranges back in the 45 to 50 range by Tuesday night.

Wednesday Evening - Thursday...

Next chance for rain arrives during the mid to late week as a
shortwave and its associated surface system move out of the Plains
and toward the Great Lakes region. Prefer the more progressive
solution offered by the ECMWF/CMC/GFS Ensemble Mean which brings
scattered showers into the area mainly overnight Wednesday night
through the first half of Thursday. Will linger chances in the east
later Thursday, but expect to be dry again by Thursday night. Will
note the the GFS solution closes off the system, and then cuts it
off from the upper flow over the Gulf Coast states, which would keep
rain chances in through the end of the week. Again, do not prefer
this solution as it is not supported by other deterministic or
ensemble means.

Expect milder lows in the 50s on Wednesday night. Highs will be a
bit cooler on Thursday with the cold front passing through. Look for
mid to upper 60s in most spots, with a few low 70s south.

Thursday Night - Friday...

We return to dry NW flow aloft with high pressure in control at the
surface to end the week. This puts us back in a dry pattern.
Look for lows Thursday night in the upper 40s, with highs Friday in
the upper 65 to 70 range.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 pM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure continues across the Deep South and is keeping our
winds generally northwesterly today. As that high shifts east winds
will become variable overnight and then southwesterly Sunday. VFR
conditions will persist.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.