Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 161902
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

Quiet weather in store for this period, with a low pressure trekking
slowly across the upper Midwest and a dry airmass in place ahead of
it. The flow aloft will be more moist, allowing for increasing
clouds there, but no precip is forecast in this period, save for the
very end of the period across my western counties.

The only concern will be for frost potential tonight. It continues
to look like our western areas will stay warmer, with slightly
stronger southeast winds and a thin band of thicker cirrus moving in
from the west. The lows I have east of the I-65 corridor are in the
mid 30s. RH values are on the border for frost production, but will
leave frost advisory as is, in case temperatures drop further than
what I have.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

The latest time-height analyses of heights, 850 hPa temperatures,
and 1000-500 hPa thicknesses continue to indicate a warming trend
through the long-term period. There will be two frontal passages,
but these are minor with no major hazardous weather expected.

The first frontal passage will occur Friday, with northern stream
and southern stream systems trying to phase over our area. Latest
guidance indicates some light rain showers are possible, but perhaps
not everywhere given the systems will likely not phase. Have trimmed
PoPs back a bit. Temperatures in the 60s will be common for highs
Friday, with temperatures dropping back into the 40s Friday night.
The weekend looks nice if you like temperatures in the 60s and 70s
under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Clouds will increase
through the day Sunday as our next weather system approaches from
the west.

A progressive system will bring our next round of rain and perhaps a
rumble of thunder to the Ohio Valley around Monday. There remain
some model timing differences with Sunday night through Tuesday
being the window. So, confidence in overall timing remains a bit
low, but even very long-range guidance from last month was pegging a
system moving through here around the 21st. Will continue the chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms centered on Monday. We dry out
Tuesday through Wednesday and continue our warming trend.
Temperatures should top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday
and warm into the lower and middle 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2014

High pressure over western NY this afternoon will continue lifting
northeast this period as low pressure travels across the upper
Midwest. With us in between and a distance from these systems, our
air flow is a moderate easterly today and that should shift to
southerly Thursday. A dry low-level airmass over us should keep VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS




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