Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 201914
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016
...A Few Strong Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and Evening...
Multiple showers have developed over the region this afternoon with
t-storm activity a little more sparse than originally anticipated.
Expect rounds of showers and scattered storms to continue through
tonight until the approaching cold front passes through the region
late tonight. The best precipitation coverage for southern
IN/northern KY including the Louisville Metro area would be between
now and approx. 10pm. Rounds of showers and isld/sct storms should
linger over portions of central/southern KY through the early
morning hours until the front clears the region. As far as t-storm
strength, think that severe storm chances are relative low and even
the chance for strong storms is low. With a very moist airmass in
place, feel the main issues with evening/overnight convection will
be brief heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning in any storms
that develop. A wind gust threat still exists with a few strong
storms producing wind gusts up to around 40-45 mph.
For Sunday, a much more pleasant airmass and partly cloudy skies
await us behind the cold front. Temperatures will fall back into
the upper 70s to around 80 for highs and humidity levels will drop
off quite a bit. Dewpts are expected to dive into the upper
50s/lower 60s bringing an end to the mugginess. Forecast low temps
for Sun night will fall into the mid 50s to around 60 which is 5-10
degrees below normal for this time of year.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016
Monday - Tuesday...
Dry weather and below normal temps are expected at the beginning of
the work week as sfc high pressure and a relatively flat upper level
pattern dominate the Ohio Valley. Expect highs to range through the
lower 80s Mon/Tue with lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Plenty of
sunshine is expected both days.
Wednesday - Saturday...
An active return flow will set up by Wed with chances for storms
both Wed/Thu as a weak cold front approaches. This boundary looks
to pass SE through the region sometime Thu/Fri, but may linger near
our southern KY counties through the weekend. Thus, low storm
chances will remain in the forecast through Saturday.
As for temps, expect an increase in temps into the upper 80s for
highs by mid week and then a slight adjustment downward for late
week into the mid 80s behind the front. Low temps will range
through the 60s and lower 70s.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Aug 20 2016
Rounds of showers will continue to move NE across Kentucky this
afternoon, and the main challenge will be nailing down the impacts
on each TAF. Will initialize with VCSH across the board, and will
make a last-minute decision on whether the MVFR ceilings will remain
fuel-alternate long enough to include them in the TAF. More
organized convection is expected in the vary late afternoon and
through the evening. Confidence remains low to moderate at best, so
while brief IFR is possible in any thunderstorm, will not include it
even as a TEMPO. Fuel-alternate MVFR is likely, as well as a period
of stratiform rain later in the night that will take ceilings down
to prevailing IFR.
By daybreak on Sunday, the cooler and drier air will be spilling in
behind the cold front. NW winds will pick up to near 10 kt, and
provide enough mixing to take ceilings back up to VFR for the rest
of the day.