Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 150609
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
209 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Visibilities across the region continue to drop rather steadily
early this morning.  Widespread fog development looks very likely
and many places may see visibilities below a quarter of a mile at
times.  Therefore, have coordinated with WFO JKL and have hoisted a
Dense Fog Advisory through mid-morning.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Main concern tonight continues to be fog potential. This morning, we
had widespread dense fog across Illinois and eastern Missouri. We
have seen a few breaks in the clouds west of I-65 so far this
afternoon, but they have been filling in with any little bit of
heating coming from those breaks. Would expect those areas west of I-
65 to clear out more this evening...though time-height sections do
promote some periods of low-stratus development, which would lower
the potential for dense fog. Will continue to beef up fog wording
for overnight, and will add in to our Hazardous Weather Outlook,
given increasing confidence.

Once that fog burns off, Friday should turn into a great day, for
most of the region. Our east still stands the best chance for any
cloud cover to linger/redevelop into the afternoon, but west of I-65
should earily warm into the 80s. Fog may once again creep into the
picture Sat. morning, but do not expect that day to be as dense as
Friday`s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The rest of the weekend continues to look warm and dry, as strong
ridging builds aloft up from the northwest Gulf of Mexico. For Sun.
night/Monday, model consensus continues to show a break in the ridge
just enough for some rain chances to move into our southern Indiana
counties. Points south and east of that area should be dry, as the
ridge aloft gets strengthened by Hurricane Jose, forecast to be off
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The next break in the ridge may come late
Wednesday into Thursday, as Jose moves farther away from our area
and another trough moves into the Midwest.

The rain chances in this forecast have lower confidence, but with
the ridge aloft, there is pretty good confidence that we will flip
from the below-normal temperatures we have seen so far in September
to above-normal temps. Our hot spots should see the upper 80s.
Hopefully the green-ness of the area with our antecedent rainfall
will keep those spots from touching 90.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Fog is expected to be the main concern during the overnight hours at
SDF, BWG, LEX, and HNB. Skies across the area have been clearing,
winds are light to calm, and the ground is moist from the recent
rains. Visibility at the forecast sites is expected to fall as the
night continues. BWG is already VLIFR. SDF is expected to reach IFR
in the early morning. LEX is expected to drop to LIFR conditions,
and HNB will likely see IFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Update...MJ
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation...KDW



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