Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 090812
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
312 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2016

...Snow Covered and Slick Roads Through Wednesday Morning...

The main forecast concern in the short term is snow shower chances,
timing and impacts.

As of 3 am, water vapor and 500 mb heights showed a closed upper low
over northwest Ohio with several embedded shortwaves pivoting across
the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Regional radar indicated
widespread snow showers across the entire area with embedded
moderate bands at times. Surface observations show visibilities
dropping as low as 1 mile occasionally so bursts of moderate to
heavier snow have been occurring. Temperatures have fallen into the
teens to lower 20s, as a result any residual moisture and melting
snow from yesterday has frozen, creating a thin layer of ice
underneath the fresh, fluffier snow.

Accumulations have been around 1 inch with some locally higher
amounts likely. Reports received since late last evening and early
this morning indicate that untreated surfaces, bridges, overpasses
and side roads are slick and snow covered. As a result, this
morning`s commute will likely have disruptions and delays with
hazardous travel.

Hi-res models are in good agreement that one upper shortwave will
pivot east of the area early this morning, giving way to a relative
lull in activity early this morning. The snow shower activity may
not completely shut off, but for a period it will be lighter or more
isolated. The next wave drops in by early afternoon, coming in
during peak heating, so an uptick in intensity and coverage across
most of the area is expected. This should linger through the late
evening into the overnight hours as well. Through tonight, plan on
an additional 0.5 to 1.0 inch of snow which will keep roads slick
and snow covered.

As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory was extended in time to 10
am EST / 9 am CST Wednesday for the whole area. Snow covered and
hazardous roads will remain possible through the Wednesday morning
commute.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2016

The main weather highlight in the long term period is on the
prolonged winter setup across the lower Ohio Valley, featuring a
parade of upper level shortwaves coming out of Canada along with
unseasonably cold air.

The first clipper in the long term arrives Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. The 09.00z deterministic and ensemble guidance
lacks consistency on timing and placement as the ECMWF is a
faster/southern solution, while the GEM/GFS solutions are further
north and a bit slower. Overall, the southwest/southern forecast
area seems favored for at least a chance of light snow, so have
trended higher snow chances in that direction, but have included at
least flurries for the entire forecast area. Wednesday is still on
track to be the coldest day of the week with highs struggling to
break 20 in places. Add in a stiff west/northwest wind, and wind
chill values are likely to only peak at 10 above during the
afternoon.

Thursday remains on track to be a dry but cold day with highs in the
mid 20s to near 30. Some breaks in the cloud cover are possible by
the afternoon.

A potentially stronger clipper looks to drop in Friday or Friday
night, but again timing/placement details are far from certain. The
09.00z guidance came in with less QPF compared to previous runs and
also further north. But for now, have kept 20 to 30 percent chances
for most of the area.

Both of these clippers would feature low QPF but high snow ratios,
so some light fluffy snow will be possible. Too early to pinpoint if
it will be anything more than just minor accumulations.

In the wake of that system, very cold air spills into the lower Ohio
Valley. Temperature anomalies off the GEFS range from 2 to 3 below
normal so highs this weekend are likely to be in the 20s with lows
in the teens to single digits possible.

Model differences increase quite a bit late in the weekend through
early next week in regard to a potential weather system across the
central Plains and lower Ohio Valley. Lack of consistency between
models and forecast cycles lends toward going with a model consensus
at this time. For now, will advertise chances of snow and/or rain
depending on temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2016

Snow shower activity continues early this morning around an upper
low spinning over the Midwest.  Generally MVFR conditions exist at
all TAF sites in the snow showery regime. The heaviest snow shower
activity was noted near the BWG/LEX terminals as of 515Z so did add
a tempo group as bursts of snow may result in vsbys dropping to IFR
during the early morning hours.  Think that snow shower activity
should lighten up or lessen in areal coverage between 9-15Z across
the TAF sites according to the latest model data.  However, models
have been under-doing intensity and coverage of snow showers so far
so did leave VC snow showers in through the morning hours with MVFR
cigs continuing.  By mid to late afternoon, snow shower activity is
expected to pick up in coverage and intensity.  Went with MVFR
conditions with this later TAF period, but IFR will certainly be
possible in the heavier snow showers late this afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS



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