Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
255 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Forecast on track for high pressure being centered far enough
southwest of us for enough of a pressure gradient in our northeast.
This gradient should be strong enough to prevent frost development
late tonight.  The gradient will be weaker over our western and
central areas though, so with low temperatures ranging from 37-41,
expect some patches of frost. Given this is the first possibility
for frost, will highlight with a special weather statement.

Saturday is looking like another cool day, but sunshine should make
it feel a little warmer even though temperatures likely will be
close to today`s highs. Saturday night, the high will be to our
south, making for a gentle south to southwesterly wind overnight.
Lows should respond by being a little warmer and high enough to
preclude frost chances. Coldest spots should be in our east.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dry front still on track to clear the region Sunday night/Monday,
keeping our forecast dry and temperatures from rising to the above
normal levels we had earlier this week. A blended analysis of the
model data indicates we`ll hover around normal each day. Monday
night could be another patchy frost night, but this time in our
northeast, where the winds will be lighter.

The next chance for rain looks to come as a more-moist front moves
through late Wednesday to Thursday. Actual temperatures for
Wednesday and even Thursday will depend on exact timing of that
front, so there is some lower confidence in the "normal" values
listed for those days.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Cold advection continues across the region.  Lapse rates have
steepened quite a bit this afternoon and a pronounced stratocumulus
deck has developed.  We expect high end MVFR to low end VFR ceilings
to prevail this afternoon with ceilings running between FL025-035
AGL.  Gusty northwest winds will be likely with sustained speeds of
8-11kts and occasional gusts up to 20kts at times.

For this evening, ceilings should start to lift as moisture starts
to deplete.  A broken ceiling around FL035-050 AGL will likely be
seen through at least 22/06Z and then we should start to see skies
scour out toward morning.  Surface winds overnight will remain light
out of the northwest at KSDF and KBWG...but will likely stay up
around 6-8kts over at KLEX.




Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
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