Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250503

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
103 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

As of mid afternoon, a surface analysis showed a cold front along
the KY/TN border while high pressure was centered over Minnesota,
dropping south and east. Skies were clear and afternoon readings
were in the mid 60s across southern Indiana to low 70s across
southern Kentucky.

Expect a dry forecast throughout the short term as the high pressure
moves from Minnesota to Michigan overnight. Winds will transition
from northerly to easterly over the next 12-24 hours.

Tonight`s lows will range from upper 30s to mid 40s and the coldest
readings are expected across the northern Bluegrass and in the
typical sheltered spots of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. In
those colder spots, patchy frost is expected. After a cool start,
highs Tuesday will reach the low 60s across southern Indiana and the
northern Bluegrass to mid/upper 60s across south-central Kentucky.
Skies will be mostly sunny.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

An area of low pressure will move across the Upper Midwest Wednesday
into the lower Great Lakes by Thursday morning, pushing a cold front
through southern Indiana and central Kentucky mainly during the
nighttime hours.

A couple bands of showers should develop along and ahead of the
front, moving into the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
The better forcing continues to be positioned northeast of the area.
Precipitation chances will range from near 50 percent across
southeast Indiana to 20-30 percent across central Kentucky. Overall,
rainfall amounts look to be rather light as there will be plenty of
dry air to be overcome initially. It`s worth noting that the 24.12z
GFS gaps the area as the front comes through, with little to no
measurable precipitation for the area.

Another round of high pressure will quickly build into the region
for Thursday and Friday with near normal temperatures.

Another shortwave trough arrives Saturday night which will drive a
cold front again through the area. Questions remain on how much
moisture this system will have to work with, and whether it`ll be
able to squeeze out showers. The 24.12z Canadian is the wettest
solution while the ECMWF keeps precipitation well northeast into
Ohio. A model consensus of 20-30 percent seems reasonable for now,
but if the trend is drier/further north then this will need to be

Temperatures for the weekend and early next week look to be mostly
near normal, with highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows in
the 40s generally.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period as high
pressure remains in control of our local weather pattern.  Light and
variable winds are expected overnight.  Surface winds will gradually
pickup out of the east and east-southeast on Tuesday with just hint
of cirrus overhead.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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