Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
236 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface analysis reveals a cold front has nearly cleared the CWA at
this hour, with the Lake Cumberland region just now starting to see
a wind shift to the northwest. Cooler and drier air has filtered in
behind the front, allowing for some clearing skies this morning.
Winds will remain relatively light through the early morning hours,
and with saturated grounds and some clearing, we could see some
patchy fog develop across portions of the CWA, especially down near
the Lake Cumberland region. Any fog that does develop should
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

A rather pleasant weekend is in store as cooler and drier air
continue to funnel in from the west and northwest. Temperatures will
generally be in the upper 80s to low 70s for highs, and overnight
lows will fall into the 50s.  Winds could be a bit breezy at times
this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as deep mixing within the
boundary layer takes place.


.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Strong high pressure system from Canada will begin dropping into the
Plains and eventually Ohio River valley region through the first
half of the long term period. This will result in dry and relatively
cool conditions (by late June standards) for the early part of next
week. Not expecting to break any records, but some temperatures
could come within a few degrees of record lows and/or record low max
for this timeframe. See the climate section of the AFD for an
overview of the records.

By Wednesday, the high pressure system will begin to into the east
coast and eventually settle over the Atlantic. At the same time, an
upper level ridge over the Plains will begin moving into the Ohio
River valley region. This will result in a more summer-like pattern
for the region, with increasing temperatures and humidity for the
end of next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
return by Thursday and continue into the weekend.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Convection has pushed off to the east, and the surface cold front is
through SDF and BWG, and knocking on the door of LEX. The former two
have gone VFR and scattered out, though the deck at BWG remains down
around 1500 ft. LEX still contending with a similar low deck and a
smattering of light showers, but will still initialize with a VFR
ceiling and VCSH.

Expect to lose the rest of the stratus by 08-09Z, with light west
winds overnight. In spite of all the rain in the past 24-36 hrs,
think there is just enough lingering cirrus cover, mixing, and dry
air advection that we should not have to worry about fog. BWG and
LEX will still be watched closely given late fropa and higher rain

Diurnal mixing on Sat will bring WNW winds back up to 10-12 kt, with
afternoon gusts just shy of 20 kt at SDF and LEX. No cig/vis
concerns as cu should remain scattered.


Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of next week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75




Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
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