Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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943
FXUS63 KLMK 041647
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1147 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1147 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Just did a quick update to the hourly T/Td elements to bring them in
closer to current observations.  Did also update the cloud cover
grids to bring in clearing from the west a little earlier.  Visible
satellite imagery showing clearing line working into our western
counties now and this clearing will work eastward through the
afternoon.  Afternoon temps will stay in the 30s and then cool into
the 20s this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 1151 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2016

A large area of low clouds will move through the region today, with
the back edge of the clouds slowly progressing across the LMK CWA
from northwest to southeast. Highs will range from the mid 30s to
around 40.

By tonight skies will be clear and winds light as a ridge of high
pressure moves through. Temperatures will tumble into the lower and
middle 20s.

On Friday a cold front will cross the area, but it will be very weak
and starved of moisture. Only some high clouds are expected. High
temperatures will mostly be in the middle 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

General weak surface ridging and a blocked Gulf will provide us with
benign weather through Sunday. A clipper will cross the Great Lakes
Saturday night/Sunday but its deep moisture will stay to our north.
High temperatures over the weekend will be around 50.

Another clipper will dive into the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
and cross the Great Lakes Sunday night-Monday night as a deep upper
trof digs into the eastern United States. Tuesday-Wednesday it
should lift off to the northeast.

This clipper will be much stronger with better upper support than
the previous one and will have a much larger pool of deep moisture
to work with, resulting in precipitation chances Sunday night
through Tuesday night. The precipitation should start out as mostly
light rain Sunday night and Monday, then transition to light snow
Monday night through Tuesday night as colder air gets pulled in from
central Canada. Given currently progged temps and QPF, some light
snow accumulations will be possible.

High temperatures on Monday should be in the 40s, but by Wednesday
we won`t be getting out of the 20s with lows that morning in the
teens (or colder).

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 530 AM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Ceilings at all TAF sites have been hovering right at the edge of
MVFR all night. Cigs likely will remain right around 3,000 feet
through the next few hours or so before lifting and breaking up from
mid morning into the afternoon hours. They could occasionally dip
below 3,000 ft., but do not expect them to stay that way long. Skies
will become mostly clear this evening and stay that way tonight.
Winds today will be out of the west to northwest. They will become
light to calm by this evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
Aviation.......EER



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