Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 030238
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 936 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Clouds persist across southern IN and portions of north central KY
this evening. This has kept temps in these areas a bit warmer than
in the previous forecast. The forecast was updated to bring the
hourly grids in line with current observations and trends in
temperature and cloud cover. No major changes made.

&&

.Short Term (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Low clouds will linger over southern Indiana/northern KY for the
first part of the night before spreading southward after midnight.
The increase in moisture will be courtesy of an approaching weather
system.  As a result, low temps will likely drop more over mostly
clear areas over portions of central/south central KY where lows
should range from the upper 20s to around 30.  Over north central
KY/southern IN where clouds are expected for most of tonight expect
lows to linger in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s possible.

Saturday expect a mostly cloudy day with highs in the low to mid 40s.
Saturday night light precipitation will overspread the area from
south to north mainly as rain but a few snowflakes could mix in at
onset.  Any light/rain snow mix late Sat night into Sun morning
should be of no impact with such warm sfc temps.  Lows Sat night
will range from 32-38 degrees.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Dec 2 2016

Sunday - Tuesday...

A cold light rain will continue on Sunday before moving out of the
area Sun night.  Rainfall amounts ranging from a few hundredths to a
quarter of an inch will be possible Sat night - Sun night.

A more organized low pressure system will move into our region from
the SW late Monday.  The low pressure system looks to track through
KY bringing a good widespread rainfall Monday night -Tuesday.  Some
elevated t-storms may be possible over south central KY Mon night
into Tue morning ahead of the main low.  Precipitation should move
out of the area Tue night.  Rainfall amounts of a half to one inch
will be likely.

Wednesday - Friday...

Long range models still vary on precipitation chances late next week
with the ECMWF remaining consistent with another good shot at
rainfall by mid week ahead of a strong cold front.  The GFS is much
drier but still brings in the colder air.  The GFS ensemble has
trended wetter with the 12Z run.  Our official forecast will
continue with lower chc POPs.

While most of this system looks like plain rain, there could be some
p-type issues on the front or back end of the precip shield.

Behind the mid week Arctic front, Thu night low temps will drop into
the teens with highs on Fri only reaching the upper 20s/lower 30s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 544 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

A widespread area of low clouds continues to sit along and north of
a line from SDF to LEX. Broken to overcast ceilings around 4000 feet
should hang in for a few more hours at SDF and until after midnight
at LEX. Thereafter, guidance shows the low clouds moving out and mid
and high clouds streaming in ahead of the next weather system. BWG
should just see the mid and high clouds moving in tonight into
tomorrow. Winds will be generally light and out of the northwest
through this TAF period. However, they could become variable to calm
from time to time.


&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER



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