Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 261642

1242 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Current analysis shows that the cold front now has pushed through
about 2/3 of the forecast area, with the Cumberland region the
remaining spot in the warm sector. Main line of showers/embedded
thunderstorms has pushed through the area...however expecting an
uptick in showers as next wave upstream arrives. Later this
afternoon, the southern and southeast region is still under a
favorable right entrance region of the jet with a PV anomaly
rotating through, so another round of widespread showers is
expected. Adjusted near term temperatures to reflect cold frontal
passage and tweaked afternoon/early evening POPs for the next
upstream wave.

Issued at 623 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A solid line of showers with embedded thunderstorms across south
central Kentucky is pushing across the forecast area this morning.
Made some adjustments to pops to raise them quicker across east
central KY. Also made some adjustments to hourly temps as
temperatures at this time are warmer in the east and cooler in the
west than the forecast was showing.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

A surface low currently over northeast Texas will track northeast
early this morning along the Ohio River and then continue off
towards the east coast through the morning hours. A stationary
boundary from this system is bisecting the forecast area tonight. As
the low moves off to the northeast, it will drag a cold front
through central Kentucky this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased across southern Indiana in
particular over the last hour as a low level jet has developed. A
few storms have popped up across the Bluegrass region as well. The
best chance for showers and storms before sunrise will continue to
be across southern Indiana. Though a few of the storms could bring
some gusty winds, severe storms do not appear likely at this point
as the storms are likely elevated and instability is low.

Showers will spread across the forecast area after 12Z with a few
thunderstorms continuing to be possible ahead of the cold front.
Mesoscale models show showers becoming a bit more scattered by mid
day across the region. Another weak disturbance may then enhance
coverage across east central KY late this afternoon with
precipitation ending this evening.

Rainfall totals will be highest across southern IN where showers
will be most widespread this morning. One to one and a half inches
of rain will be possible, with some ponding of water not out of the
question in low lying areas. Across central KY amounts will range
from a quarter of an inch in the Lake Cumberland region to around an
inch along the Ohio River.

Temperatures today will be tricky as the strong front swings
through. Highs will be this morning in most areas with temps holding
steady or falling into the afternoon. Much cooler temperatures are
expected tonight with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

For tomorrow an upper level trough will be in place across the
eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this flow could bring some
light precipitation during the afternoon. Will continue to carry a
mention of rain or snow with this activity. However, no significant
impacts are expected with this precipitation. Temperatures Friday
will top out in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Mostly went with the blended forecast so as to keep an eye on radar
early this morning. A few flakes still are possible in our east
Friday evening, but not enough to worry about at this point.
Temperatures will be cold for the weekend, with a hard freeze
possible both mornings. Then we should have a steady warm up for the
first half of the work week. Models vary on timing of rain chances
from Sunday night to Wednesday, so have some chances in for most of
those periods.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2015

Cold front has passed through SDF/LEX/BWG as of early afternoon and
plan on northwest winds to persist through the TAF period. IFR
ceilings continue across central Kentucky, though drier air coming
in from the northwest is helping to lift ceilings gradually
upstream. Plan on a slow but steady improving trend through this
afternoon and evening. Current satellite trends suggest back edge of
cloud deck will arrive at SDF/BWG/LEX between mid and late evening.
Shower activity will wane as well this afternoon with just
intermittent MVFR visibility restrictions possible. For Friday,
steep low level lapse rates and cold air aloft will allow
scattered/broken cu to develop late morning through the afternoon
hours. Bases with those clouds are expected to be high-end MVFR or
VFR at this time.




Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
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