Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 120803
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2013
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2013
A very chilly start to the day is still on track with low temps
expected to bottom out in the single digits and teens this morning.
Wind chills will be largely in the single digits this morning across
central KY but will reach sub-zero levels over southern Indiana over
snowpack. Make sure to bundle up this morning!
Sfc high pressure will rule the region today and tonight providing
for dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies today will be deceiving as
high temps will only reach the 20s in most locations with lower 30s
forecast for south central KY. For tonight, expect mostly clear
skies with low temps in the upper teens and lower 20s.
We`ll see an increase in clouds for Friday as the next weather
system approaches the region. Most models do bring precip into the
area west of I-65 by late afternoon/early evening. However,
soundings indicate a thick dry level will exist in low levels making
it difficult for precip to reach the ground at first. Still will go
ahead and include rain and rain/snow mix across the area starting at
18Z Friday. A wintry mix at precip onset is most likely over
southern Indiana and extreme northern Kentucky Fri evening. High
temps Friday should warm nicely into the upper 30s and lower 40s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2013
The long term will begin with an active period of weather for the
weekend followed by quieter conditions for the first half of the
work week. A shortwave and attendant surface low over Texas at the
start of the period will track northeast into the lower Ohio Valley
by Saturday afternoon and move off the east coast by Sunday morning.
Precipitation will continue to overspread the area on Friday night
becoming widespread by Saturday morning. It continues to look like
much of the area will see mixed precipitation types Friday night.
Portions of southern Indiana stand the best shot of seeing all snow
overnight with a mix of rain and snow along the Ohio River and
across much of central Kentucky. Near the KY/TN border it looks to
stay all rain.
As the low approaches Saturday morning warmer air will surge
northward and change the mixture to all rain across most of the
area. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. As the
system begins to pull out on Saturday night and colder air moves in
behind it the precipitation will change back to light snow and then
freezing drizzle as we lose ice crystals aloft. Friday night there
looks to be some light snow accumulations across north central KY
and southern IN. Much of this should melt during the day, however,
as the transition to all rain occurs. Saturday night we should just
see a dusting of snow, if any.
The forecast continues to look dry Monday through Wednesday with the
systems moving through the northwest flow staying far enough north.
Temperatures will moderate through the week. Highs on Sunday will be
only in the upper 20s to lower 30s. By Wednesday temps will rise
into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2013
The cold front has pushed through the TAF sites as of 430Z and sfc
high pressure was working in from the west. Just behind the front,
SDF/LEX were experiencing some high end MVFR cigs and elevated NW
winds around 8-10 kts. Expect these cigs/elevated winds to persist
for the next few hours or so before both TAF sites go VFR and winds
lighten. Expect skies to clear toward sunrise and remain that way
for the rest of the TAF period. Winds will back from NW overnight
to SW for much of the daylight hours tomorrow.