Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLMK 260745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017


A warm sunny day is expected today courtesy of a strong southerly
flow in between a ridge to our east and a deep trough to our west.
South winds of 10-15 mph will gust to around 25 mph this afternoon.
High temps should top out in the lower 80s.

Tonight - Thursday...

Tonight the upper trough will lift northeast over the central CONUS
pushing a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  This will bring a
decaying line of showers and t-storms through central KY/southern IN
late tonight into Thu morning.  With most of the forcing for ascent
getting pulled NE and limited instability, think that any storms Thu
night will probably remain below severe limits.  However, can`t rule
out a strong storm with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. Lows
tonight will range through the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Showers/storms will exit the area by Thu early afternoon with skies
becoming partly cloudy.  Highs in the post-frontal airmass should
range from the mid 60s to low 70s.


.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Friday - Saturday...

Fri/Sat a low pressure system will deepen over the south central
U.S. resulting in a warm front developing near our region.  This
front will sharpen and wobble a bit Fri/Sat resulting in several
precip chances for the end of the week.  Depending on the exact
evolution of this front and the warm sector, a chance for strong
storms could exist especially along and south of the front. Highs
Fri/Sat will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with bust potential
depending on exact location of the warm front.


By Sunday we should be solidly rooted in the warm sector with the
main cold front progged to move east through the Ohio Valley some
time Sun night or early Mon morning (timing differences still exist
in long range models).  1000-2000 j/kg and a strong wind profile
could result in the potential for strong to severe storms with
strong to damaging winds and hail along and ahead of the front.
Sunday high temps should be similar to Fri/Sat.

Monday - Tuesday...

Showers will quickly exit the area Monday with cooler, dry weather
expected through Tue.  High temps will fall back into the 60s/lower
70s for the beginning of work week with lows in the 40s/low 50s.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected through this TAF period.
Mainly cirrus will pass over the region through this evening with
just a few cu possible in the afternoon. However, lower ceilings
will begin to move in during the planning period at SDF tomorrow
morning as showers and a cold front approach.

Ahead of the cold front, the pressure gradient will tighten and
winds will pick up out of the south today. They will become gusty by
mid morning and continue to be gusty through the afternoon. A strong
low level jet will develop this evening with wind speeds of 45-50
knots between 1400-1800 feet by 02-04Z. Therefore, low level wind
shear was added in at all sites. The LLJ will diminish and the lower
atmosphere become more mixed by early Thursday morning.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...EER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.