Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Early this morning, high pressure is over the Appalachians, whereas
a weakening trough lies just to our north over central IN/IL. Those
features do not look to move much today, and that boundary to our
north may serve as a focus for an isolated shower/storm later today,
with coverage limited by low precipitable water and a mid-level

Today should be a warm one for most, with highs 3-6 degrees warmer
than Tuesday. We should see a slow thickening in high clouds coming
in from the south, as Tropical Storm Cindy gains latitude. Our flow
will increase from the south and southeast tonight, meaning our lows
Thursday morning will be more in the upper 60s to around 70. As
Thursday continues we will see dewpoints continue to rise as more
tropical moisture advects into the region. Cloud cover will thicken
with rain likely by afternoon across south KY. Expect efficient rain
producers, setting the stage for some flood issues with heavier
bands of precip coming in to end the work below.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...Heavy Rainfall Forecast Friday and Friday Night...

Cindy should be a depression somewhere along the TX/LA border
Thursday evening. An upper low will be just west of the surface
feature, with a deformation band expected NNE of the low, up into
the Ohio River Valley. Models have been consistent in showing two
separated areas of heavy closer to the tropical system,
and another along this deformation band. Given precipitable waters
in the 2-2.5 inch range within this band, expect a narrow swath of
higher rainfall totals wherever this band travels from early Friday
through Friday night. By Friday night, the weakening depression
should make a pass across south central KY, so we could see two
swaths of heavier rainfall totals with lower values in between.
Would not be surprised to see a Flash Flood Watch go out in the next
couple of forecast cycles. Will go with a Hydrologic Outlook with
this forecast package, in addition to beefed up wording in the HWO.

Models have trended toward the precip getting out of the region
earlier now, clearing us by Saturday morning. Cool high pressure
will build in from the west, which should dry us out for most, if
not all, of the rest of the period. Look for highs each day to be
below normal and the coldest morning, lows in the 50s, both Monday
and Tuesday.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could begin streaming into south-central Kentucky
as early as Thursday morning as moisture associated with tropical
storm Cindy begins to impact the region. Confidence in the timing of
the precipitation is low so will keep all TAF sites dry for time




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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