Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 210720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
320 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Early this morning some very light isld-sct showers were present in
the base of the upper trough pushing through the Ohio Valley region.
Expect these showers to slowly move eastward and finally exit the
area by mid morning.  Mostly cloudy conditions look to remain
through much of the day although locations west of I-65 will start
to see some sunshine by the afternoon hours as the low cloud deck
begins to diminish.  NW Winds will remain a bit gusty throughout the
day with gusts to around 20 mph. With mostly cloudy skies and strong
CAA throughout the day, high temperatures should be limited to the
mid to upper 50s.

Tonight expect skies to clear from west to east with NW winds
becoming lesser (3-5 kts).  Sfc high pressure will remain centered
to our southwest.  Expect low temps to drop into the 37-41 degree
range.  Sheltered locations that drop into the mid 30s with very
light winds may see some patchy frost formation Sat morning.  Will
continue to include patchy frost mention in the forecast but did
scale the area back some based on a combo of updated min temps and

For Saturday, expect a cool but mostly sunny day with highs topping
out in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Sunday - Tuesday...

By Sunday, we`ll see some moderation in our cool airmass as winds
turn back to the southwest in return flow.  This will allow our high
temps to warm back into the upper 60s/lower 70s under mostly sunny

Sun night, a dry cold front will push through the region bringing
another weak shot of cool air which will bring high temps back into
the mid 60s to around 70 both Mon/Tue.  Low temps will remain mainly
in the 40s Sun-Tue with some upper 30s possible Tue morning.

Wednesday - Thursday...

A potent upper level shortwave looks to move east through the
Midwest Wed night/Thu.  Although it`s cold front looks pretty
moisture starved, will include a 20% POP Wed night/Thur especially
over S. Indiana for rain showers.

Again some small temp fluctuations for mid week from low 70s on Wed
ahead of the front to 60s on Thu behind the front.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Surface front now east of all TAF sites across central Kentucky with
steady north to northwest winds continuing. Plan on intermittent
showers and/or drizzle to move over the area through sunrise along
with fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings.

Improvement will commence west to east during the mid morning to
afternoon hours. BWG and SDF will lift and scatter to VFR as early
as 15-17z, while LEX will likely hang onto an extensive strato-cu
deck through the afternoon with some improvement to above 2kft by

Expect steady northwest winds throughout the day with gusts topping
out around 20 kts for a few hours in the late morning and afternoon.
Winds will subside after sunset, but there should be enough of a
gradient at SDF and LEX to keep winds at or above 5 kts through the
end of the current TAF period.




Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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