Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 021706

106 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015

Temps continue to struggle as the only breaks in the stratus are
just now creeping into our far northern counties. Max temps near 70
will be reached fairly quickly once there is any substantial
sunshine, but only where there is sunshine. Look for mid 60s across
much of the area, with a decent shot at touching 70 in southern
Indiana. Updates already out.

Updated 1040 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015

Low clouds are holding tough over the Ohio Valley, with the clearing
line still just barely this side of I-70. With weak low-level flow,
any clearing this afternoon will depend on eroding the clouds from
top to bottom, rather than actually advecting them out of the area.
Pilot reports indicate the clouds are not much more than 1000 feet
deep over the Louisville area, but closer to 3000 feet deep near
Nashville. Therefore stil expect to see some breaks, mainly north of
the Bluegrass Parkway. High temps in the lower 70s are still
attainable where we break out, while farther south and east will be
lucky to touch 70. Going forecast is pretty well on track.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2015

In the near term, mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist across
the forecast area this morning.  Some sprinkles will also be
possible, mainly across south-central and southern KY.  Some patchy
fog will also be seen in some places.  However, a light
northeasterly wind may remain high enough to keep widespread fog
from developing.  Temperatures through sunrise will remain in the
mid-upper 50s.

For today, upper level low will slowly translate eastward across
Tennessee today.  As this occurs, some drier air will infiltrate in
from the north and northeast.  However, low level moisture looks to
remain plentiful enough for mostly cloudy skies across the region
through the morning hours, with some breaks in the clouds likely as
we head through the afternoon hours.  Some scattered showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible down along the KY/TN
border region and down in the Lake Cumberland area.  Temperatures
will remain very cool for early June with highs only topping out in
the lower 70s.  For the tonight period, partly to mostly cloudy
conditions are expected with lows dropping into the mid-upper 50s.

The upper level low will continue to slowly work into the southern
Appalachians by Wednesday.  Combination of the low and diurnal
heating should result in some more scattered showers and storms,
though these look to remain more limited to areas generally east of
I-65.  Temperatures look to slowly moderate through the period with
highs on Wednesday topping out in the upper 70s to the very low 80s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015

The upper level cutoff low centered over eastern TN at the beginning
of the long term period will slowly move eastward through the end of
the work week. Northwesterly flow aloft will then set up across the
forecast area and will continue into early next week. At the surface
a weak low pressure system will drag a front through on Saturday,
with another front moving in towards the end of the period.

With the upper level low east of the region on Thursday and Friday,
there will be a lack of upper level support for organized
convection. However, with temperatures rising into the lower to mid
80s in the afternoons, isolated to scattered storms could pop up
each afternoon. This diurnally driven convection should wane in the
evening as the sun sets. However, there will be a chance for showers
or storms Friday night as the aforementioned low pressure system
moves into the area. These will continue Saturday as this feature
moves through. Thus, coverage of storms will be a bit higher on
Saturday than the previous two days.

There looks to be a chance for a lull in precipitation on Saturday
night into part of Sunday before the next front moves in. This front
should be stronger with more widespread showers and storms
accompanying it. The models are still a bit off on the timing of
this system, so will not carry likely pops in any on period until
there is more agreement in the guidance. High temperatures through
the weekend will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2015

Pesky stratus deck continues to hang back over the Ohio Valley even
as the upper low continues to push east into the Cumberland Plateau.
IFR conditions have persisted at BWG and LEX, while SDF remains in
fuel-alternate MVFR. Low-level trajectory out of the NE extends back
through quite a bit of cloud cover, but the northern part of the
cloud shield is only about 1500 feet deep. Think we have a better
chance of lifting or scouring in SDF and perhaps LEX, as opposed to
BWG where the cloud deck is 3000-4000 feet deep per recent pilot
reports out of BNA.

Surface winds hinting that they could back to due north at SDF, and
June sun is quite powerful, which would support improvement in
ceilings and possibly partial clearing. However, those are the only
factors that seem to be working in that direction, and if winds
remain NE the low ceilings will persist. Slight improvement is
likely through the afternoon as slight warming takes place beneath
the cloud deck and deepens the boundary layer. Will keep it MVFR
until sunset.

Improvement to VFR is possible this evening but forecast confidence
is much lower. BWG could see some visibility restrictions around
daybreak, but will keep that in the MVFR range. Otherwise will
generally hold onto a ceiling that`s just barely VFR, with light NE




Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
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