Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221712

112 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1140 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Mostly clear skies expected this afternoon with crisp cool
temperatures and a north wind of around 6 to 10 mph. Earlier this
morning some scattered fair weather cumulus developed across
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. These seem currently to be
dissipating. Expect almost perfectly clear skies after 3 pm this

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are in store for the start of
fall today into tomorrow. Early this morning an upper level trough
will swing across the region. An area of clouds associated with this
trough looks to clip portions of southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky. These clouds should move out fairly early this morning
with mostly sunny skies expected for the remainder of the day.
Surface high pressure will build in through the period keeping
things dry and skies mostly clear.

With a colder airmass continuing to build in today, temperatures
will top out only in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will be
quite chilly with lows ranging from the lower to mid 40s. Some of
the typically cooler spots in north central KY and southern IN could
bottom out right around 40. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with highs
in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Ridging aloft should stick around most of this period, save for
perhaps Sunday, when both the new GFS and the 12Z Euro have an upper
low crossing the region. The source is different for each model,
with the GFS version to our west, and thus having a better shot at
rains. Given how this rain was in for Saturday`s forecast at this
point yesterday, confidence is pretty low for rains on Sunday.
Blended model forecast keeps in slight chances, as per previous
forecaster, so will keep those in for now.

Temperatures will stay near normal for highs and a little below for
lows Wednesday and Thursday morning, then go to near or just above
normal for lows the rest of the period.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014

Clear skies and VFR conditions anticipated for this evening through
Tuesday. North winds around 10 mph this afternoon will diminish by
late evening and veer to the northeast, averaging 5 mph or less by
and after midnight. Northeast winds of 5 to 8 mph are expected




Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
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