Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 032330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Still have some very weak radar returns in the northeast and have
trended the forecast to deal with those.  The chance of measurable
rainfall is very slight. Hi-res guidance continues to point to a
solid line of rain moving into the region Wednesday after the
morning rush. Ongoing forecast there looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016


Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warmer as the upper low moves
out of our region and up the east coast and upper level ridging
begins to move in from the west.  Highs on Fri look to reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s.


Saturday`s forecast is looking a bit more complicated in recent
model runs.  First of all, longer range models are hinting at a weak
wave bringing a brief burst of showery activity Sat morning to the
region.  Both the last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF show this, however,
it is very weak wave and will hold off for now on adding any very
light POPs for Sat morning at this time.

We should then see a dry period for much of the afternoon/early
evening hours with partly cloudy skies.   Temps on Sat
afternoon/early evening should warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Then late Sat evening (after 8pm) a cold front will dive south from
a low pressure system traversing southern Canada bringing scattered
showers/storms into the region for Sat night.  Severe wx is not
expected for Sat night at this time.  Low temps on Sat night should
hold in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

An active weather pattern looks on track to start next week. Several
small waves will keep low chances for showers/storms Sun/Mon.  A
better chance for more widespread convection will arrive for Tues as
a low pressure system and cold front approach the Midwest.  Temps
will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms early next week.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Expecting a VFR night with variable winds. Wednesday morning winds
will pick up from the southwest and become gusty ahead of a cold
front. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the timing of
rains associated with this front, starting at 14/15/16Z for
SDF/BWG/LEX respectively. Line of rain should pass through and then
become more showery late in the day. With cold air aloft, cannot
rule out small hail and/or occasional thunder in the afternoon, but
too low coverage to put in these TAFs. Winds will shift to
northwesterly behind the front Wed afternoon, with MVFR cigs likely
for a period from onset of rain until a few hours behind the front.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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