Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 011930
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NOW - SUNDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
COMFORTABLE FEEL IN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. A FEW UPPER CLOUDS
WILL STREAM OVERHEAD TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP NICELY INTO
THE LOW AND MID 60S IN MANY SPOTS. A FEW SHELTERED NORTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE THE UPPER 50S GIVEN THAT WE`VE MIXED OUT INTO THE LOW AND
MID 50S DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONE THING THAT MAY KEEP THAT FROM
OCCURRING WILL BE THE FEW-SCT UPPER CLOUDS THAT LOOK TO STREAM
OVERHEAD.

EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPS RISE MOSTLY TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 80S NE TO THE LOW 90S SW.
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH CONTINUED
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TOWARD OUR
CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS SE
INDIANA. BEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH SO DECIDED TO GO
DRY. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY WHICH LENDS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY SOLUTION. WILL LIKELY STILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT TO
BE SLIGHTLY MILDER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE FORECASTS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN
THE DATA OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.  A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST, TROUGH EAST PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO AMPLIFY A BIT BY LATE WEEK AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WHICH RESULTS IN A DEEPER EASTERN US TROUGH.

A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD (MON-TUE)
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE REAL UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD BY
MIDWEEK AS A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE
PLAINS AND THEN SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE HEART OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO THE
REGION.  THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL LOOK TO BE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.  SEVERAL OTHER WAVES WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WET PATTERN WITH SOME DRYING EXPECTED BY LATE SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST AND WE START TO SEE A BIT
OF RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.

OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE HERE REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR
THE EURO WHICH HAS A DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS VERIFIED
WELL IN THE LAST WEEK OR SO LOCALLY.  THE GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STARTING
TO COME INTO LINE WITH THE EURO SO, IT DOES APPEAR THAT FORECAST
CONVERGENCE IS TAKING SHAPE.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES ON QPF
AMOUNTS BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALONG WITH THEIR PLACEMENT.  THE GFS
REMAINS A BIT HEAVIER AND MORE NORTH WITH ITS QPF PLACEMENT, WHILE
THE EURO IS FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER.  THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY.
THEREFORE, TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK OF 2-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY AUGUST INITIALLY, WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST
DAYS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR LOOKS ON TAP AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.  FOR THIS FORECAST, WE STAYED CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL IN RECENT DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS.
SOME HIGH CIRRUS MAY SPILL OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WAITING TO SEE IF BWG MIXES
LOWER DEW POINTS OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETELY RULING OUT
SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAWN. IF THIS OCCURS AS EXPECTED...NO
OTHER CONCERNS TO NOTE. SDF/LEX WILL BE VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........BJS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........BJS



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