Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 302000
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Overall a quiet and dry period lies ahead for the next 24-30 hrs.
The exception to that may be a few sprinkles late this
afternoon/early evening as an upper trough passes through.  There
were some radar returns as of 19Z but believe this was mainly virga
falling out of a mid deck.  That may change over the next few hours
as the trough intersects some better low level moisture.  Will
mention sprinkles for a few hours this afternoon/evening.

Other than that, expect low temps tonight in the low to mid 30s.
Highs tomorrow will be limited to the 40s in the colder airmass
behind this passing trough.

&&

.Long Term...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday Night - Saturday...

Upper low will slowly move across eastern Canada, with overall zonal
flow across the Ohio River Valley through Friday night. Weak upper
ridging takes hold on Saturday, helping to keep a continued dry
forecast. Still watching for just enough moisture to skirt north of
I-64 that a few sprinkles might be possible on Friday afternoon, but
not high enough confidence to include mention in forecast at this
time.

After lows on either side of 30 degrees on Thursday night, highs
should top out mostly in the 45 to 50 degree range on Friday.
Decent radiational cooling conditions Friday night will again allow
temps to dip into the upper 20s to around 30. We`ll stay about 5
degrees below normal for highs on Saturday, generally in the mid to
upper 40s.

Saturday Night - Sunday...

Upper ridge axis quickly pushes east Saturday night into Sunday,
with a weak shortwave quickly moving into our region from the
central Plains. This feature will try to take advantage of it`s
limited moisture, and draw on some Gulf moisture pooling ahead of a
closed upper low over the SW CONUS. The end result should be some
light precipitation overspreading the area late Saturday night into
Sunday. Temperatures will be a bit tricky and will play a role in
precipitation type at onset. It is possible we still have a few
spots down around freezing at precip onset early Sunday morning, and
may eventually have to include a small chance for freezing rain. For
now, will just mention a wintry mix improving to light rain shortly
after sunrise on Sunday. Either way, doubt we`ll see anything in
terms of accums.

Expect lows in the low to mid 30s on Saturday night, and in the low
to mid 40s on Sunday.

Sunday Night - Monday...

Should be a brief dry period as first system passes east and brief
high pressure at the surface and aloft take hold. Low to mid 30s
rule again Sunday night, with temps just below normal on Monday in
the upper 40s to around 50.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Early to middle of next week looks to become active with a couple of
systems ejecting out of our deepening SW flow pattern. First system
should bring rain Monday night into Tuesday, with the second system
system looking stronger to the point where thunder could become a
possibility. Will trend temps back above normal during this time
with highs in the low and mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2016

MVFR clouds will remain a flight restriction through the afternoon
hours before scattering out by early evening.  An upper trough
should bring another mid deck in tonight.  Moisture profiles at
SDF/LEX indicate cigs could approach the high end MVFR range again
tonight, but left the TAF VFR for now.  Winds will remain WSW 5-10
kts through the TAF period with a few high gusts possible this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...BJS
Aviation...AMS



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