Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 150810
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
410 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Tue 15 2017

Some patchy fog will be possible this morning, but stratus and other
clouds will tend to limit fog development. A shortwave disturbance
and deeper moisture will gradually exit to the east through early
afternoon. Until that time, scattered showers will remain possible
particularly over the far southern and southeastern forecast area.
Brief shortwave ridging will characterize the rest of the day, and
the bulk of the afternoon and evening looks dry. Afternoon highs
will be limited to the low/mid 80s in southeastern zones, where
skies will remain mostly cloudy. Elsewhere, mid/upper 80s will be
common.

Late this evening and overnight, precip chances will increase across
the southwest. Another shortwave ripple will move through tonight
into Wednesday as a surface warm front pushes north. In a moisture
laden airmass, scattered convection will be possible across all of
central Kentucky and southern Indiana on Wednesday. With dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s, moderate instability could develop by the
afternoon. Deep layer shear will only be around 20 kts, but locally
heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds certainly look possible.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Wednesday night should be a relative lull in thunderstorm activity,
but isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible
in the warm sector. Lows will only drop into the low/mid 70s.

A potent upper wave and associated surface low will track northeast
through the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through the Ohio
Valley Thursday-Thursday night. This is the most likely time frame
for rain and thunderstorms, including stronger storms with a wind
and hail threat. GFS forecast soundings suggest an increase in the
mid-level wind fields will boost deep layer shear to around 25-30
kts.

Precip chances will linger east of I-65 Friday morning, but the
weather should be quiet Friday afternoon through Friday night. Highs
in the mid 80s will be common on Friday. Held onto small PoPs for
Saturday-Saturday night as an upper wave swings through, but
moisture isn`t all that deep. Sunday looks warm and mainly dry, with
highs in the mid/upper 80s.

Monday (Solar Eclipse Day)...

Monday is still several days away, so it`s important to note that
forecast confidence in cloud cover is low. Upstream convection could
have an influence on cloud cover, for example. However, the forecast
for Eclipse Day remains optimistic. The latest deterministic runs
and ensemble data suggest that mid and upper level ridging will be
building across the central and southern CONUS, with a surface high
centered somewhere northeast of the area. So this forecast still
tilts toward a warm, dry, and mostly sunny day.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Low ceilings and light fog will develop during the pre-dawn hours in
the muggy, calm lower levels. Visibilities and ceilings will then
gradually lift into VFR during the daylight hours this morning.
Winds will remain light.

Spotty showers will be possible, especially south and east of BWG
and LEX, though the TAF period. Activity will be widely enough
scattered to keep the TAFs dry for now.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EBW
Long Term...EBW
Aviation.......13



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