Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211714

114 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 900 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

Available moisture is decreasing across southern Indiana and along
the Ohio River. Partial clearing has already developed behind the
pre-frontal trough now over central Kentucky. For this update, have
removed precipitation chances along and northwest of the Ohio River.

The eastern edge of a thin line of convection may still graze Logan
County later this morning, bringing light amounts of rain if any at
all. Still think that by early afternoon, scattered convection may
still redevelop across our southern counties and the Lake Cumberland

The cold front itself is still over west central Indiana. It will
move south of the Ohio River by early afternoon. Colder air will
arrive well behind this boundary, so today will be a warm day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A low pressure system sits to the north of the US/Canadian border
this morning with its cold front trailing across Michigan into
central IL. A line of showers and storms has developed ahead of this
from this morning stretching from OH to IL. This front will move
through the forecast area this morning into the early afternoon

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increased early this morning
along the line. However, coverage across central IN has begun to
decrease over the last hour or so while portions further west look
better. Think coverage of storms will continue to decrease as the
line approaches our southern IN counties. Will continue with around
30% chance for precipitation for southern IN and north central KY
this morning. However, confidence is lower in areas along and just
south of the Ohio River. It does still look like there could be an
increase in coverage across portions of east and south central KY
late this morning into the early afternoon. Rain chances will
quickly decrease late this afternoon into the early evening with dry
conditions everywhere by sunset.

Despite the front moving through fairly early, temperatures are
expected to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s today. Strong cold
air advection tonight will quickly drop temperatures after sunset
with lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be
mostly clear and much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to around

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

High pressure will be passing by just to our north Monday night,
allowing for better radiational cooling conditions over the northern
half of the forecast area, where lows may touch the upper 30s in a
cold spot or two. The high will remain either to our north or
northeast the rest of the period, leaving dry conditions. Models
diverge on how they handle the trough moving through our area
tonight/Monday, but those solutions all still keep us dry through
the work week. The question mark still looks to be Saturday, but
will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures should warm through the
week, after that cold low Tuesday morning, with highs reaching
around 80 for Thursday through Saturday.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

A cold front will move south of the Commonwealth by mid-afternoon.
Winds have already become northwest at SDF and LEX, and will veer to
the northwest at BWG by 19z. For the rest of this afternoon,
northwest winds will continue around 11 to 12kt, with gusts up to
18kt. Winds will become more northerly and diminish to under 10kt by
late evening. Northeasterly winds of 5 to 10 mph expected for

The threat of any showers for BWG has essentially ended. MVFR
ceilings at BWG will lift to VFR and scatter out by 19 to 20z this
afternoon. Ceilings have will have lifted to VFR at SDF and LEX by
TAF issuance time, and will tend to clear by 20z.

Aside from scattered VFR level clouds passing through around the
late evening through the early morning hours, mostly clear skies are
expected. Monday will stay clear.




Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
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