Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 271719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1219 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1117 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

The forecast is on track this morning. Current radar imagery shows a
steady stream of light rain showers stretching from the southern
Plains, up through the Wabash River Valley and into the Great Lakes.
These showers will continue to move NE as the entire system slowly
slides east, parallel to the surface frontal boundary. Some light
returns are sliding across our NW CWA, with perhaps some sprinkles
or very light showers reaching the ground. KY Mesonet sites and
regional obs have not shown a measuring shower yet. Chances for some
light measurable precipitation will begin to increase across the NW
as we move through the atmosphere and pockets of deeper moisture
arrive with the aid of the LLJ.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

Another unseasonably warm day is in store for the central Kentucky
and southern Indiana today.  Temperatures will start out this
morning in many locations warmer than the normal highs for the date,
which are in the low to mid 50s.  Thanks to a bit more cloud cover,
though, max temps should stay below 70 today.

Big changes lurk just on the horizon, however, as an elongated area
of rain lies to our northwest, stretching from the Great Lakes to
central Texas, along a strong cold front.  Temperatures south of the
front at 3 am in St. Louis were in the low 60s, while just 100 miles
north, Hannibal, MO was in the upper 30s. Because the upper level
steering winds lie parallel to the surface front, however, it`s
eastward progression will be slow, especially along the southern
end.  Over the next 24 to 36 hours, this will result in the front
becoming stretched out roughly parallel to the Ohio River, putting
an end to the blue skies and bringing the chance of rain for the
entire area for the weekend.

Timing-wise, the rain will remain mostly north of the Ohio River
during the day today, though some showers could cross over before
sunset, especially west of I-65.  As the evening progresses, POPs
increase, with rain a near certainty for most of central Kentucky on
Saturday.  The good news, though, is that, even with the rainfall,
temperatures will remain on the mild side, with lows tonight in the
50s, and highs on Saturday in the 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 355 AM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

The second half of the weekend remains wet, as the aforementioned
cold front essentially exits the region at a snail`s pace. Overcast
skies and periods of rain linger into Tuesday before a large upper
low finally moves through the northeast U.S. and its trailing trof
pushes the surface front and precip east into the Atlantic.  By that
time, 2"-3" of rain will have fallen over most of the forecast area.

By the time the rain moves out Tuesday night, the calendar will read
December, and temperatures will then start to follow suit as drier,
colder air moves in.  While highs will be mainly in the 50s to low
60s Sunday through Tuesday, the 40s will prevail for Wednesday and
Thursday.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 40s
Sunday through Tuesday, then dip into the 30s after the blanket of
clouds exits along with the precip.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1219 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2015

Surface cold front out to the west will slowly move eastward toward
the TAF sites during the upcoming forecast period.  Ceilings will
slowly fall this afternoon but will remain at VFR levels.  South-
southwesterly surface winds will be found with sustained 10-14kts
and gusts up to 19-20kts at times.

Precipitation still looks to hold off until 28/03-04Z at KSDF and
KBWG and will likely hold off until around 28/08Z at KLEX.  We`ll
see cigs and visibilities drop into the MVFR range late tonight and
toward dawn Saturday morning.  There looks to be a good chance that
some IFR ceilings may be realized after 28/12Z at the terminals.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....JBS
Long Term......JBS
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