Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181133
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
633 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 631 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Rain continues to struggle to develop this morning across the
region, though there is a broken line of light showers moving across
east central KY. Made some adjustments to pops through the morning
hours, generally to lower them somewhat across the board. In
addition, temperatures were adjusted up a couple degrees as we are
running warmer than forecast this morning.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday evening)
Issued at 238 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

...Gusty Winds Today Through This Evening...

Rain and gusty winds continue to be the focus for today into
tonight. A strong cold front will approach the area this morning and
move through this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Currently the radar shows scattered showers, mainly across north
central KY. The latest high resolution guidance suggest that some
light showers will develop across south central KY more towards
daybreak. In general today, pops were trimmed back a bit during the
morning hours. As the front moves in this afternoon, coverage of
precipitation will increase with showers and scattered thunderstorms
along and behind the front. Most of the thunderstorms should be
elevated in nature slightly behind the front. However, some
instability may develop right ahead of the front this afternoon
which could lead to the potential for a few severe storms with
damaging winds, mainly west of I-65. Further east, instability will
be decreasing as the storms approach, so the threat will be less.
Still, with the strong wind field an isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out.

Outside of any storms, it will be quite windy today. We are already
seeing some gusts to just over 30 mph early this morning. Gusts are
expected to continue to increase into the mid morning hours.
Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph can be expected
this morning. For this afternoon into the evening, sustained wind
speeds of 20-30 mph are expected. In addition, with the pressure
gradient tightening and mixing occurring a bit deeper, wind gusts
are expected to increase a bit this afternoon just ahead of and
behind the front. Gusts to 45 mph certainly look possible and a few
gusts higher than that are not out of the question. The peak time
frame for the higher gusts looks to be 2-8 PM. Winds will shift
quickly from southerly to northwesterly as the front moves through.
Soundings continue to indicate some stronger gusts to around 40 mph
will continue through the evening hours, so will keep the expiration
time for the Wind Advisory at 06Z.

Temperatures will be on the warmer side today, topping out in the
mid 60s. However, they will quickly drop into the 40s behind the
front with lows tonight in the low to mid 30s. Tomorrow will be much
cooler with highs in the lower to mid 40s.

.Long Term...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

This next week looks to be fairly quiet with surface high pressure
over the region a majority of the time. An upper level trough will
swing through on Tuesday night/Wednesday and the ECMWF does try to
paint some precipitation across north central KY Tuesday night.
However, it is the only model advertising this at this time, so will
keep the forecast dry for now. This will, however, bring another
shot of cold air to the region knocking high temperatures back into
the 40s for Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving morning looks
to be the coldest of the long term period with lows dipping into the
mid 20s. Early Black Friday shoppers should bundle up as Friday
morning will not be much warmer with lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

Challenging flying conditions...and forecasting...throughout this
TAF period.

A strong cold front will approach from the west today and cross the
terminals between mid afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the
front low level moisture will increase and create MVFR ceilings,
with some high end IFR ceilings possible, and scattered showers. The
best chance for thunder will be just ahead of the front this
afternoon. Behind the front this evening showers will taper off but
low ceilings will persist.

Surface winds will gust over 30kt out of the south for much of the
day, especially this afternoon ahead of the front when gusts over
40kt will be possible. Even higher gusts will be possible with any
thunderstorms. The FROPA this afternoon will be sharp and will
switch winds to the west. Speeds will remain very high for several
hours behind the front before gradually starting to slacken
overnight.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation...13


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