Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 170554
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
154 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.Short Term (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will remain in place
across the Lower Ohio Valley through the remainder of the weekend.
By early Monday morning a front will approach southern IN from the
northwest, but should stall to the north of the forecast area.

For this afternoon, satellite images show plenty of cu has developed
across the region. Most of the mesoscale models show isolated
showers popping up this afternoon and the radar even shows a few
blips. However, given the amount of dry air aloft, think that very
little if any rain will reach the ground. Have therefore opted to
keep the forecast dry this afternoon.

Clouds should dissipate this evening with clear skies and light
winds expected once again tonight. Some patchy fog will likely
develop again tomorrow morning, particularly in valleys. The best
chance for more areal coverage of fog will be across south central
KY.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today with highs in the lower to
mid 80s and scattered cloud cover. Tomorrow night showers will
approach southern IN towards the end of the period, but with the
front stalling, they should stay north of the forecast area.

.Long Term (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The upper level ridging will really start to flatten out over the
lower Ohio Valley on Monday and remain that way through mid week.
Diurnal heating and a couple of weak disturbances moving through
will bring off and on chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday
afternoon through Wednesday night.

For the second half of the week into the first half of the weekend,
models are still in fairly good agreement in an upper level trough
deepening across the western CONUS. This will result in ridging
amplifying over the eastern CONUS. This should be a drier period for
the forecast, though a few showers and storms here and there cannot
be completely ruled out.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the long term. Highs
will be in the 80s each day with lows in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Another night with clear skies, light winds, and high pressure
parked over the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians will lead once
again to patchy fog. Patchy river fog already occurring at BWG, and
will continue to cause bouncing VSBYs bouncing from MVFR to IFR
until after sunrise. Only brief MVFR VSBYs expected for LEX SDF and
LEX. A layer of higher RH from 040-050 is in place over the region,
but warmer air aloft should prevent much growth, so only FEW-SCT
coverage expected, with some higher cirrus moving in from the west
during the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation...JBS



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