Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 112024
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
324 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

...Light Snow Tomorrow Morning...

Temps are in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s across the region,
however will quickly fall back into the 20s this evening. As this
occurs, left exit region of an upper jet will slide into the
Tennessee/Green/Cumberland River Valleys, along with deeper
moisture. Latest data has shifted well to the SW with the "heaviest"
axis of snowfall overnight and focuses on the southern two or three
tiers of counties underneath the left exit region. Data shows a 2-4
hour period of good lift with saturation up through the DGZ which
would result in light to briefly moderate snow around sunrise. With
snow ratios nearing 15 to 1, expecting that snow accums could range
between a half inch and 1 inch. Will go with an impact based Winter
Weather Advisory around the morning commute across our south, in
coordination with PAH/OHX/JKL. Amounts won`t be overly impressive,
but slick spots during the morning commute are expected.

Further north, will issue an SPS where flurries and light snow will
have a harder time overcoming the drier air to the north. In this
area, a dusting to a half an inch is possible. A few slick spots
will be possible for the morning commute in these area, but not to
the extent expected further south.

After a brief lull in the late morning and early afternoon, expect
scattered snow showers to commence once again mainly across the Blue
Grass and Lake Cumberland regions. This will mainly be due to
steepening low level lapse rates and a slight upslope component
given NW surface winds. These showers should be light as moisture
will not be as deep by this time. Temperatures will top out in the
30s.

Lows Friday night drop into 10 to 15 degree range. A few upper
single digits are possible. Flurries taper off early in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Saturday and Saturday Night

Tranquil period here as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Question mark as far as how cold it gets Saturday night will be
thicker cirrus building in from the west through the night. Have
gone close to statistical guidance for lows, with readings around
10, but colder in our Bluegrass.

Sunday - Sunday Night...

Light snow accumulations are still looking likely for the Sunday
into Sunday night period. Temperatures will start off in the single
digits to lower teens in the morning, however should warm to the
upper 20s and lower 30s by afternoon. Meanwhile, atmospheric column
will saturate deeper moisture moves into the area ahead a
disturbance over the Great Lakes. Light snow is expected to
overspread the area into the late afternoon and evening, continuing
into the overnight. Right now accumulations look to stay in the 1 to
3 inch range with this system.

Monday - Monday Night...

Focus continues to be on the early week storm system as upper
pattern becomes amplified over the central CONUS in response to a
strong polar jet diving into the northern Plains. Models continue
have trouble the complexity of the upper air pattern and potential
interaction with the subtropical jet. Depending on this interaction
and the eventual strength track of the associated surface low, a
snow or rain scenario is still on the table for our CWA. Most likely
scenario at this point is snow monday morning, changing to a mix or
rain through the day as the warm nose lifts north. Locations across
our northern CWA would be most likely to stay in snow longer, with
our southern CWA more likely to change over. Have reflected this
approach in the latest forecast, but will not take the possibility
of a significant snow off the table until data becomes more
consistent.

As the system departs to the east on Monday night, expect a change
over back to snow as colder air comes back in. Winds would be quite
gusty by this time.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Lower confidence as we head into mid week. There is a signal for
another weak clipper two moving through the NW flow. A few rain or
snow showers are possible with these depending on what time of day
they arrive. Overall, we will see a trend toward milder. Heights
really begin to rise by Thursday as upper ridge gets established
over the central CONUS. Highs could solidly be in the 50s by then.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1230 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2016

Have had some bands of high-end MVFR cumulus develop near LEX and
BWG this hour. May briefly see broken cigs at those sites for the
next few hours. Otherwise focus will be on snow chances early
Friday. A mid-level deck will thicken through the evening hours.
Model guidance at this point shows the best chances for snow at KBWG
so have a prevailing group there for several hours, but went PROB30
for the other two sites. Behind those chances we should see an MVFR
deck that sticks around through then end of the forecast period.
Winds will be variable, but should pick up from the west tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS



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