Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 192325
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
725 PM EDT Tue May 19 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue May 19 2015

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region for tonight
and much of Wednesday.  For tonight, expect only a few high clouds
over the area with sfc temps in the lower 40s to around 50 for
lows.

Wednesday we`ll see an increase in cloudiness through the afternoon
hours as an upper level shortwave approaches the region.  Models are
still split on how much moisture/energy will be left over as this
weakening wave passes through the Ohio Valley.  Will continue to
take a middle of the road approach with showers approaching areas
west of I-65 during the early evening hours.  The best chance for
precipitation will occur Wed night as the wave pushes through.
Still think 30-40% coverage is the best bet given the dry
environment and overall weakening shortwave.  Will continue to
include some isld t-storms over south central KY through 6Z Wed
night as the 12Z SPC WRF does generate more cellular, elevated
convection in that region.

As for temperatures, there should be quite a gradient of highs for
Wed as the front that pushed through early this morning wobbles back
north on approach of the trough.  This will result in highs in the
mid 60s to around 70 over southern IN/north central KY and low to
mid 70s over central and southern portions of KY.  Low temps for Wed
night will again be coolish in the upper 40s/lower 50s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 19 2015

The long term will begin with zonal flow aloft transitioning to
northwesterly through Saturday. At the surface high pressure will be
in control through this time frame. This will lead to dry weather
with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will start out on the cooler
side on Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows
in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will see a gradual warming trend
into the weekend with highs into the upper 70s to around 80 by
Saturday.

The upper level pattern will transition Sunday into Monday as ridging
builds across the southeastern CONUS. The forecast area will be on
the northwestern edge of this ridge with southwesterly flow setting
up. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected to develop
Sunday into Monday in this regime as disturbance move through this
flow. Will continue with 30-50% coverage of precipitation through
this time frame, though there will certainly be breaks at times.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s and
lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 720 PM EDT Tue May 19 2015

Surface high pressure north of the region will force our winds to be
northerly then northeasterly by daybreak Wednesday. A front to our
south will try and lift north during the day as an upper-level
impulse approaches the region. This should make the wind more
variable across south central Kentucky, and may allow for some
decaying showers very late in the period. Confidence not high enough
to put in the TAFs at this point.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





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