Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 172311
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
711 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
...Near Record Warmth Continues Through Tuesday...
The main weather story through the short term continues to be the
near record warm temperatures. SDF should set a record warm minimum
today as the low this morning was 69. The record is 67 set in 1881.
In addition, SDF is close to the record high with a temperature of
86 as of 2:45 PM. Strong southerly winds will continue overnight,
which should keep temperatures up in the 60s. Record warm minimums
are in play again tonight, especially at SDF.
The hot temperatures continue into tomorrow as the southerly winds
continue ahead of a cold front approaching the region. There may be
some limit on heating along and north of the Ohio River as cloud
cover looks to be higher in this region ahead of the approaching
front. Some models do try to develop a few showers as well, but
given how dry we are, have opted to go with a dry forecast for now.
However, depending on how much cloud cover there is, it could hold
highs below 90. Winds will be breezy again tomorrow with gusts of 20-
25 mph possible.
The cold front will continue to approach the area Tuesday night.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday night , mainly along and north of the I-64
MAX (10/17) WARM MIN (10/18) MAX (10/18)
SDF 87 (1965) 66 (2007) 86 (1910)
LEX 87 (1938) 66 (2007) 87 (1938)
BWG 90 (1917) 66 (1905) 88 (1963)
FFT 88 (1938) 65 (2007) 88 (1938)
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
The cold front approaching the region Tuesday night will stall out
near the Ohio River Wednesday. Weak convergence along this boundary
will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms along and north of the
Ohio River Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures during this
time frame will remain above normal.
The better chance for rain will come Thursday into Thursday night as
a stronger trough approaches from the west and another disturbance
rides northeast along the boundary. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely during this time frame. Most of the area should receive some
beneficial rainfall with forecast rainfall amounts in the .5-.75"
range. The models are not in great agreement with how fast this rain
will move out, but everyone should be dry by Friday afternoon.
Much cooler air will sweep in behind the front. Highs look to top
out only in the low 60s on Friday with lows Friday night in the low
to mid 40s. The weekend then looks to be mainly dry as high pressure
builds in. Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 60s for
highs by Sunday.
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016
VFR conditions will prevail this forecast cycle. The main concern
will continue to be surface and near surface winds. Latest obs show
gusts subsiding over the last couple of hours with the loss of
heating. However, do still expect pretty steady SSW winds around 10
mph overnight. A 40-45 knot LLJ will set up over the TAF sites
tonight and will create a marginal LLWS environment consisting of
mainly speed shear. Will include mention as analysis of forecast
soundings does show a decent inversion setting up.
Otherwise, LLWS ends an hour or two after sunrise with steady SSW
winds picking up again. Look for 10-20 mph with gusts up around 25
mph at times. Some gusts up to 30 mph are possible. May see Sct to
at times Bkn Cu/Stratocu around 5K feet which may limit gustiness a
bit if too persistent.