Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLMK 171606
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1106 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Under full sunshine this morning we are warming up nicely. With SDF
just having hit 60 degrees, 70 degrees today is not out of the
question. Will bet towards upper 60s for now, but did send out a
zone update raising highs a category for most locations this
afternoon. Also lowered dewpoints a little, given current
observations and some potential to mix down further dry air this
afternoon. May have to issue further updates later for both temp and
dewpoint, but will watch trends for that.

&&

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warm and sunny Friday is in store for the region with upper level
ridging in place and a strong southerly flow.  Temps should easily
warm into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.  Southwest winds will
be breezy.

Tonight we`ll see an increase in clouds from SW to NE ahead of the
next weather system.  Lows will range through the low to mid 40s
with the coolest locations over southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass.

For Saturday, a quick moving upper low will bringing scattered,
light rain showers to the area.  With clouds and some rain, temps
should be limited to the mid 50s to low 60s for highs.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Near Record Warmth on the Way...

Light rain showers from the Sat system should end Sat evening with
upper level ridging building back into the region for Sunday.  With
skies becoming only partly cloudy early in the day, temps on Sunday
should rebound well into the 60s.  Monday ridging will strengthen
bringing the warmest day in the 7 day forecast.  Highs on Mon should
top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s which is 15-20 degrees above
normal!

Tuesday onward, low chances for precipitation will return.  A weak
frontal boundary over the region will provide a focus for showers
Tue/Wed/Thu before a stronger cold front brings showers and
potentially some t-storms to the region on Fri.

Temperatures will remain mild throughout the week ahead of the
strong cold front progged for Fri.  In fact, it is possible that
some records could be challenged.  Check the climate discussion
below to see record highs and warm lows for this coming week.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 545 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period as high pressure
aloft builds in. The concern for the next few hours will be wind
shear. Recent AMDAR soundings show a pretty good inversion with
winds around 40 knots at 1900-2100 feet. Though surface winds have
picked up some, will continue to mention LLWS for the next couple of
hours before winds aloft decrease. Wind gusts will pick up by mid
morning and continue through the afternoon. The gusts will diminish
towards sunset. Mainly cirrus will pass over the terminals today,
though a mid deck will start to build in towards sunrise tomorrow.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days

Louisville:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...RJS
Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...EER
Climate...RJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.