Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13


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