Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KLMK 212140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
540 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

KHPX radar showing showers spreading into Logan County on far
northern extent of MCS pushing SE through central TN. Latest
lightning data is confined south of the TN border, mainly from
Nashville area and south. Likewise, area of showers with a couple
rumbles of thunder further north and west across SE MO and southern
IL may just clip Logan and Simpson counties. However, this activity
has shown a general weakening trend due to remnant cold pool from TN
MCS. Storms are not likely at this point, but an isolated rumble of
thunder can`t be ruled out along TN border. 21z MUCAPE gradient
currently in place along the border.


.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A complex of showers and storms will slide to the ESE along a
surface boundary from southeast Missouri into the Tennessee Valley
this evening. These storms may graze the southwest corner of the
CWA, so will have to keep some PoPs going southwest through south of
Bowling Green. Weaker complex of showers moving from Iowa into
Illinois will weaken as it slips to the ESE. Its weakening plus dry
low level air should prevent precip from reaching the ground in the

Lows tonight will slip into the 28-32 degree range in southern
Indiana and the northern Blue Grass. After consulting with IND and
ILN, will issue a narrow Freeze Warning for those areas tonight.

High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes will supply us with
cool temperatures and dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Lows Wednesday night will be similar to tonight.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The Great Lakes high will continue to move to the ESE late this week
with some ridging reaching back into the southeast United States,
keeping us dry. With the high off to our east, temperatures will
moderate and we`ll be back into the lower 70s by Friday afternoon.

Weakening low pressure will progress from the Ozarks Saturday
morning to north central Illinois Sunday morning and on to the Lake
Erie vicinity Monday morning. This system will bring widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region over the weekend,
especially Saturday night.

On Saturday the GFS/GEM/EC have slowed the progression of the
surface low and its associated convection, placing us squarely in
the warm sector of the system. As a result, we went above guidance
for highs Saturday afternoon well into the 70s.

The surface trof that the weekend low traveled along will still be
in place early next week, with another low following roughly the
same path Monday-Tuesday bringing us additional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s should continue.


.Aviation (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The main challenge for this TAF period will be when the persistent
low stratus deck at SDF and LEX will break up. Bases have begun to
rise at SDF and the latest satellite images show the low clouds
scattering out just to the north of the region. Therefore, SDF is
expected to scatter out in the next hour. LEX may take another 2-3
hours, but it should occur by mid to late afternoon. A mid deck is
expected to develop this afternoon/evening as a disturbance passes
by to the north. Clouds should then scatter out overnight. BWG
should remain VFR, but clouds will increase this afternoon as
another system passes by to the south. Will also continue to mention
VCSH at BWG, though most of the activity should stay to the south of
the terminal.

Winds through tonight will be out of the NNE to N and remain fairly
constant in the 7-10 knot range. They will shift to more
northeasterly tomorrow morning and increase just a bit.


IN...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ076>079-

KY...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ031>037-



Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EER is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.