Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 240511
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 246 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015

...Bitter Cold Continuing Tonight...

Arctic high pressure will continue to build across the area through
this evening and then shift off to the east overnight. With high
pressure over the area winds will be light and variable to calm
overnight. Expect that temperatures will fall quicker and lower than
what they did last night due to the lighter winds. Cloud cover will
be much less than last night as well with mainly mid and upper level
clouds streaming across the region. The cloud cover will keep the
area from ideal cooling conditions, but it still looks like
temperatures will fall into the single digits across much of the
region tonight. Counties nearer to the TN border will have thicker
clouds and will be farther from the center of the high, so temps
should stay a bit warmer in the teens. The best chance for below zero
wind chills will be tomorrow morning around or just after sunrise as
winds begin to pick up. Southern IN and far north central KY could
see a couple hours of sub-zero wind chills in this time frame.

Winds will pick up out of the southwest Tuesday morning. This will
usher in warmer air ahead of the next front. Highs tomorrow look to
top out in the upper 20s to the north and the mid 30s in the south.
For Tuesday night a front will cross the forecast area. There is not
much moisture to work with as the front passes through. However, a
few light snow showers across southern IN and north central KY will
be possible Tuesday night. Little to no accumulation is expected.
Lows will be in the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2015

At the beginning of the long term period a clipper will be diving
south through the Great Plains, but will lose its punch as it
strays away from its upper support.  Meanwhile, a southern stream
system will be moving along the Gulf Coast as the next arctic high
pokes in from the northwest.  The operational GFS has been
remarkably locked-in over its last five runs concerning the
placement and track of the southern low and is in pretty good
agreement with the operational ECMWF, GEM, and JMA.  The GFS has
shown a northward trend Wednesday night, but only very slightly.  As
such, it appears that precipitation will remain mostly to our west
and south with these systems Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Highs
on Wednesday will be in the 30s, with lows Wednesday night generally
in the teens.  Guidance has trended quite a bit warmer for lows
Wednesday night, but with some snow cover expected to still be on
the ground, will temper that trend a bit in the forecast.

On Thursday a weak upper level disturbance will cross overhead and
should produce some light snow, possibly beginning as early as late
Wednesday night in southern Indiana.  Temperatures will be cold
enough such that a dusting of accumulation could occur. Highs will
range form the lower 20s to lower 30s north to south.

Thursday night through Saturday look dry as that arctic high pushes
through.  We could approach wind chill advisory criteria late
Thursday night/early Friday morning in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky on the nose of the high.

Precipitation chances will increase over the second half of the
weekend into the new week as the high moves off to the east and the
next system comes in from the west.  Right now it looks like the
lion`s share of this system will be rain, though it could start off
as snow depending on how quickly the system enters the region
Saturday night.  It should be a pretty wet system, with over an inch
of liquid possible Sunday into Monday.  We could even hear a few
rumbles of thunder Sunday evening.  Sunday and Monday will have
highs in the 40s to around 50...only a few degrees colder than
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1205 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period as we remain in
between weather systems to our north and south.  Expect mid and
upper level clouds from the southern stream system overnight with
possibly some low clouds building in also but don`t think they will
result in a cig.  The next flight restrictions (MVFR) may come
tomorrow night with a weak frontal boundary.  Winds will be light
overnight becoming southwesterly for the daylight hours today
between 6-10 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........AMS




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