Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190805
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

The axis of the upper level low has shifted east of the region
tonight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles may continue over
east central KY for the next hour or two, but for the most part the
rain has ended.

The main concern for early this morning is the potential for fog
development. Areas of dense fog have formed west of the forecast
area across west central KY and parts of southwestern IN. The latest
mesoscale guidance continues to indicate this fog will spread
eastward over the next few hours. The primary area for fog looks to
be mainly along and north of the Ohio River. Will continue to
monitor webcams and observations and assess the need for a Dense Fog
Advisory. If fog does form, it will likely linger into the
mid morning hours before mixing out.

Regardless of lower visibilities, the stratus deck looks to hang
around through the morning hours under an inversion. We should
finally start to see clouds break up by mid day or into the early
afternoon.

For tonight, surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast
of the region with ridging aloft. An inversion will again develop
with low level moisture remaining in place, particularly along and
north of the Bluegrass Parkway. Some patchy fog may develop tonight
in this area.

Despite the clouds, we should see a decent warm up today with highs
in the mid to upper 60s. Highs for Monday will top out in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Monday night will start out dry under the influence of the upper
level ridging. However, a shortwave and trailing front will begin to
approach the region early Tuesday. As this feature passes through on
Tuesday it will bring a chance for showers. Will continue to carry
50% or less chance for rain with this system.

Wednesday looks to be dry as we sit in between systems. By Thursday,
however, low pressure system will develop across the Plains. A warm
front moving north across the region will bring another chance for
showers on Thursday.

Friday into Friday night the lower pressure system will move from
the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Friday we look to be
solidly in the warm sector of this system with dewpoints rising into
the mid 50s and high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Soundings show an impressive wind field aloft and 500-1000J/kg CAPE.
Some strong storms could certainly be possible with this system.
Given how far out it is, a lot could change, but it does bear
watching this week. Behind the cold front, high pressure will build
in Saturday bringing dry weather.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the work week
topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s each day. Lows will
generally be in the mid 50s, warmer than the normal highs for this
time of year. We will see a sharp cool down on Saturday behind the
front with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1208 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Upper level low over eastern KY will continue to move off to the
east overnight.  Diminishing deformation band of light rainfall
across the Bluegrass region should continue to diminish over the
next hour.  For the overnight period, main concern will be ceilings
and visibilities.  Ceilings are likely to come back down into the
IFR/MVFR range overnight with visibilities rooted in the MVFR range.
A drop into the IFR range looks likely after 19/08Z or
so...especially at KLEX and KBWG.  KSDF normally doesn`t fog up all
that much, so the most likely scenario there is for low ceilings
with vsbys staying around 4-5SM.  Winds overnight will be light and
variable.

Mixing will be virtually non-existent in the morning and the strong
inversion aloft will take time to mix out.  So low clouds and fog
are likely to linger throughout the morning hours.  By afternoon,
ceilings are expected to lift and conditions should transition to
VFR.  Surface winds will be light during the daytime on Sunday.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days.

Louisville: Fri. Feb. 17 record high:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation...MJ
Climate...EER


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