Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191945
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
345 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Isolated showers and perhaps an isld rumble of thunder will continue
over portions of southern IN and central KY mainly west of I-65
through this evening courtesy of an upper level shortwave passing
through.  After sunset, convection is expected to diminish.
Temperatures this afternoon are pretty much on track with many
locations in the upper 80s/lower 90s and heat indices in the 90s to
around 100.  The hottest locations are over south central KY near
Bowling Green/Hopkinsville and points west.

Tonight expect partly cloudy skies and perhaps some light patchy fog
across the area during the pre-dawn hours. Lows should range from
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Thursday, expect hot conditions to continue with the mercury
continuing to creep upward a bit.  Highs for Thu should range from
90-95 across the area with max afternoon heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range in locations along and west of I-65. East of I-65
heat indices should range from the mid 90s to around 100.  Thursday
night we won`t see much relief from the heat as the center of the
upper level ridge nudges closer to KY.  Lows Thu night should only
dip into the 72-77 degree range.

The heat SPS will be continued emphasizing the hot conditions for
the end of this week.  Any change to the forecast could result in a
heat advisory being issued, however, conditions for Thursday look to
be just shy of advisory criteria attm in a portion of the area.
Regardless, remember to take plenty of breaks from outdoor activity
and drink plenty of water during these hot days.

&&

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Friday - Saturday...

Hot conditions will continue through the end of the week as the
upper level ridge center comes very close to our region.  Highs on
Fri and Sat should range from 92-96 with more locations closer to
the mid 90s on Fri than Sat.  Friday still looks like the best day
to reach heat advisory criteria with the potential max heat indices
exceeding 105 in many locations along and west of I-65.  The one fly
in the ointment which could cause temps to underachieve is the
potential for isld convection which some models are hinting at and
the new blended products now include.  Convection and/or clouds
could limit high temps in some areas causing them not to reach heat
advisory levels.  On Sat, a similar situation may exist with
portions of southern IN where convection/clouds may hamper higher
temps/heat index values.  Will need to wait and evaluate convection
coverage/chances for both days to determine if an SPS for heat is to
be continued or a heat advisory may be needed.  Lows Fri night will
range from 73-77.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Relief from the heat is expected to come for the beginning of next
week as the ridge breaks down and a cold front pushes through the
area.  Scattered showers/storms are forecast for Sun/Mon with highs
falling back into the 80s for Mon/Tue/Wed.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Plan on VFR conditions through the period. A weak mid-level wave
will bring a scattered to occasionally broken deck across central
Kentucky through the evening. Cloud bases are 8 to 10 kft. Plan on
light winds with a predominant direction out of the southwest to
west.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...ZT


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