000
FXUS63 KLMK 071739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2013

Have gone with a winter weather advisory for all KY counties. Wintry
precipitation is becoming increasingly likely across portions of
central and southern KY tonight into Sunday. It still appears that
temperatures will rise above freezing across much of KY by late
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, thus helping to melt any
snow/sleet/ice accumulations. More details on the event will be
forthcoming with the afternoon package.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2013

...Light wintry mix possible early Sunday morning...

Skies will tend to clear from north to south this morning as
Canadian high pressure builds east across Iowa. By dawn, mostly
clear skies are expected across southern Indiana. Although low
clouds will erode by late morning across our southern counties, some
high clouds streaming in from the southwest may keep skies overall
partly cloudy this afternoon near the Tennessee Border.

Cold temperatures expected this afternoon, especially over the
southern Indiana snowpack. Highs will range from the mid 20s north
to the lower 30s near Tennessee. Winds will continue from the north
at around 10 mph.

In response to lift associated with the right entrance region of a
jet along the Ohio River, weak low pressure is forecast to develop
late Saturday evening along the western Gulf coast. by Sunday
morning, an inverted surface trough is forecast to move north across
Tennessee into south central Kentucky. This surface feature will
become the focus of some mixed wintry precipitation.

As opposed to Friday`s storm, precipitation here will develop within
a warm air advection regime, and temperatures will tend to rise
through the event as southwesterly flow aloft rides over cold air at the
surface. The GFS forecasts very light QPF amounts, with not much
precipitation at all northwest of the Bluegrass Parkway. The more
robust NAM develops precipitation just after midnight south of
Bowling Green, and bring light amounts as far north as southern
Indiana shortly after dawn.

Forecast soundings show a potential for light freezing rain and
sleet, with perhaps an initial bit of snow across north central
Kentucky and southern Indiana, assuming precipitation gets that far
north. Eventually, by mid-day Sunday, any freezing rain will turn to
rain as temperatures warm into the mid 30s generally south of
Interstate 64.

Due to uncertainty about the amount of precipitation, and the timing
of any potential switchover to rain, will issue a Special Weather
Statement highlight the potential for light icy accumulations early
Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2013

The next winter weather system mentioned above will be departing
Sunday night, though the new ECMWF keeps up a cold precip over the
southeast third of our forecast area through the night. We should
get at least a brief respite from precip, before yet another wave
moves in within the flow aloft late Monday night into Tuesday. The
NAM/GFS and to a lesser extent the GEM all have precip over the
Appalachians with a secondary band forming along the Ohio River.
Given this model consensus, will start edging pops up along the
river. Will keep under 20 percent though given much drier dewpoints
in place.

The rest of the period should be dry, though Wednesday and Wednesday
night those models bring a front through with hints of QPF just to
our north. Sometimes we can squeeze out a few flurries from this
type of system, but will leave forecast dry for now.

Given that we do not have a great change in airmass during this
period, below normal readings will continue through the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1233 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2013

Low-end MVFR cigs continue at KLEX and KBWG this afternoon, as the
low stratus has seemed to have rapidly slowed its southward
progression.  Am a bit skeptical that the clouds will clear out of
these regions at all today, but will be optimistic and clear both
locations to VFR by late this afternoon.

The next round of wintry weather will arrive overnight, first
affecting KBWG, then spreading northeast into KLEX and KSDF by
Sunday morning.  Precipitation will likely start as a mixture of
some sleet or light snow, before transitioning to sleet and freezing
rain.  The highest amounts will likely be at KLEX and KBWG, with
KSDF getting a bit less.  This wintry precip could cause some
issues with light icing on runways and aircraft surfaces, so
aviation interests should continue to monitor the coming forecasts.
With the precipitation, ceilings will drop at least into the low-end
MVFR category, perhaps reaching IFR thresholds by late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to
     3 PM EST /2 PM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ061>067-070>078-081-082.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 6 PM EST /5
     PM CST/ Sunday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......KJD