Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 011914
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Loosely organized showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this
evening as various subtle surface boundaries and disturbances aloft
interact with the warm, humid air. Locally torrential downpours will
be possible with some of these cells as precipitable water amounts
pool around two inches.

The feeling is that coverage will wane later this evening (not
necessarily end), and then possibly renew after midnight as new MCS
activity goes up well to our west and eventually moves into southern
Indiana and central Kentucky toward morning. Locally heavy rain
would again be the main threat.

Speaking of heavy rain, any rain-related issues should be relegated
to local problems under training cells. Due to the expectations that
any problems will be local and temporary, held off on any areawide
flood headlines at this time. Also, confidence of overnight storms
is not as high as one would like for the issuance of a watch.

It`ll be another muggy one tonight with lows of 65-70.

Low pressure over Kansas today will cross Missouri tomorrow with its
surface front reaching east into the Ohio Valley. Given that plus
any convectively induced trigers from overnight convection and
subtle ripples in the upper flow, showers and thunderstorms can be
expected once again. Will keep PoPs rather high tomrrow into
tomorrow night as the surface low enters Kentucky. High temperatures
tomorrow will be around 80 with lows Thursday night 65-70 once again.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

An active long term period continues with daily chances of
showers/storms although no one day looks to be a complete wash out.
Also, no organized threat of severe wx looks imminent at this time.
Temperatures look to remain at or below normal through the
long term.

Friday/Friday Night...

Low pressure will be moving ENE along a sfc boundary Friday morning
resulting in forcing for showers/storms.  Most soundings indicate
elevated convection Friday morning as the main sfc wave moves
through central KY.  However, some models indicate a trailing upper
level shortwave could provide additional forcing for
afternoon/evening storms especially if the morning wave is fast and
we see some clearing behind it late Friday morning/early afternoon.

Friday night we should see a break in convection with a lull in
shortwave activity and the sfc boundary well to our south.

High temps Friday afternoon should reach the upper 70s to around
80.  Low temperatures will range through the 60s Friday night into
Sat morning.

Saturday/Saturday Night...

The latest suite of model data suggests Sat could be drier than
previously anticipated.  A sfc boundary and upper level shortwave
activity should remain mostly to our south.  Without much of a
trigger in sight to spur convection, think that coverage will remain
isld-sct so have trended down with POPs.  If any convection does
develop, it should be mainly pulse-like storms during the
afternoon/evening hours...dying away shortly after sunset.  Sat
night only a 20-30% chance of convection exists.  Sat highs should
reach the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps Sat night will drop into
the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday - Wednesday...

Sunday should be pretty similar to Saturday.  Isld-sct
showers/storms are possible, but no strong trigger looks to cross
the area and wind profiles look weak.  Thus, expect pop up
afternoon/evening convection on Sun.

Forecast confidence decreases for the first half of the work week
next week as a more significant cold front and upper trough approach
the Midwest.  Instability, forcing, and wind profiles will increase
ahead of this next weather system which should arrive either Tue or
Wed.  Will need to watch the potential for strong storms with this
weather system.  Temps will increase into the mid to upper 80s for
highs ahead of this weather system.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2015

Given various mesoscale boundaries, upper level disturbances, a
surface front, and an approaching low pressure system, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be with us throughout the TAF period. In
the TAFs, rather than having 24-36 hours of VCTS, attempted to
indicate the most likely times for thunder this afternoon in the
unstable atmosphere, and late tonight as possible redevelopment to
our northwest moves in. Kept VCSH for the rest of the time to convey
the thought of pervasive convection chances.

Synoptic scale winds will generally come in from the southwest
around 5 to 10 knots, though may become chaotic and stronger in
showers/storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13




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