Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 151213
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
813 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...Widespread Dense Fog Expected This Morning...

 Early morning satellite and surface observations reveal clear to
partly cloudy skies across the region. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to the lower 60s in most locations. Surface observations
reveal quite a bit of fog across the area.  GOES-16 Fog product
shows this well along with some low stratus moving through portions
of the area.  The combination of light winds, clear skies, and some
low-level moisture will result in continued fog development.  The
fog may be locally dense in some areas this morning with
visibilities dropping below a quarter of a mile.  For this reason, a
Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area
through 10 AM EDT.

For the remainder of today, the fog should mix out by early to mid
morning.  Mostly sunny conditions are expected over a large portion
of the area.  Some diurnal Cu may develop out over near the I-75
corridor this afternoon.  Some models do show enough low-level
moisture for some very isolated shower/storm development.  Current
thinking is that the best chances of that would be mainly east of
the I-75 corridor.  Highs will range from the upper 70s in the I-75
corridor to around 80 in the I-65 corridor. Areas west of I-65 will
be the warmest with lower 80s expected.

As we move into tonight, skies will clear back out again and some
patchy fog will be possible once again.  At this time, the fog looks
to be less widespread, however we will continue to monitor things
throughout the day.  Lows tonight look to cool into the upper 50s to
the lower 60s.

Saturday continues to look dry and sunny with high pressure
maintaining control across the region.  Temperatures are expected to
moderate a bit with highs warming into the lower-middle 80s.

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

The rest of the weekend weather looks to remain dry and warm as as
high pressure will continue to control our weather pattern locally.
A ridge over the eastern US will start to break down in Monday-
Tuesday time frame.  This will allow disturbed weather to move back
into the region with showers and thunderstorms possible.

The overall pattern across NOAM is expected to be increasingly
complex as strong amplification of the pattern is expected.  A deep
trough axis is expected to develop across the western US with
Hurricane Jose expected to trek northward, awfully close to the
eastern US coastline.  Depending on how deep the western US trough
develops may result in a stronger ridge developing over the northern
Ohio Valley into the St. Lawrence Valley.  This could result in Jose
stalling out and possibly even retrograding westward.  These
possibilities have been seen in some of tonight`s data.  Toward the
end of the week, the western US trough is forecast to lift out and
to the east as a stronger Pacific Jet slams into the western US.
Given the strengthening Pacific Jet, a period of unsettled weather
looks likely to develop across the central US by the end of the week
and into next weekend.  This could start to affect the Ohio Valley
by late next weekend and into the following week.

Overall forecast confidence for next week is below average given the
relatively complex flow pattern.  There is medium-high confidence
that we`ll see warmer temperatures next week after several weeks of
below normal temperatures.  The rain chances for Monday into Tuesday
look decent, but the forecast confidence really falls off by late
next week.  High temperatures next week will likely remain firmly in
the 80s.  A few spots may make a run at the upper 80s, but that
looks to be tamed by the lush green vegetation that we have in place
across the area. Overnight lows will remain mild with readings
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Fog continues to cover the forecast sites of SDF, LEX, and BWG. As
the morning continues and mixing begins, fog will lift and
conditions will return to VFR by late morning. Central Kentucky and
southern Indiana will see mostly sunny skies during the rest of the
day. Expect winds today to be variable and light.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

&&

$$

Short Term...MJ
Long Term....MJ
Aviation...KDW



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