Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 232302
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
702 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
A weak vortmax moving through the area today has brought an area of
rain to portions of southern IN and west central KY. It has also
kept temperatures down across portions of the region. This area of
rain will continue to sink southeast across the region this
afternoon, mainly west of a line from Orange County in Indiana to
Russell county in central KY. This rain is expected to move out/
dissipate by the early evening hours.
Dry weather is then expected through at least Friday evening as
upper level ridging builds in. Southerly winds will increase
overnight as the pressure gradient increases across the region.
Gusty southerly winds through the day tomorrow will bring more of a
warm up than we have seen today despite mostly cloudy skies expected
tomorrow. Low tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s as the
southerly winds will keep temps from falling much. Highs tomorrow
will top out in the lower 70s.
A strong low pressure system approaching from the Plains will be the
main weather maker for the weekend. Ahead of this system, a few
showers may move into southern IN during the pre-dawn hours
Saturday. Lows will be relatively warm in the mid to upper 50s on
.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2017
Saturday - Sunday
A low pressure system will lift from near the KS/MO border on
Saturday morning into the Great lakes region by Sunday afternoon.
With the track of the storms, the region should mainly remain in the
warm sector until Sunday evening when the frontal boundary
associated with the low finally swings through. A couple of rounds
of showers and storms look possible Saturday. The first will be in
the morning Saturday and mainly west of I-65. Another round of
storms looks to develop west of our region and move through Saturday
afternoon and evening. Soundings are more unstable (500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) with these storms and low level winds will increase. Some
stronger storms will be possible, though widespread severe weather
doesn`t look likely.
Scattered showers and storms will continue Saturday night and Sunday
as the upper low continues to lift off to the northeast. These look
to lift off to the northeast by Sunday night.
Monday - Tuesday
Another strong low pressure system will approach Monday. The surface
low for this system looks to take just a bit more southerly track
than the one over the weekend, moving just south of the Great Lakes
region through Thursday afternoon. Soundings with this system show
better instability than for the weekend at 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE as
temperatures rise into the mid 70s. Again, some strong storms will
be possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening as this system
moves through. Rain will move out Tuesday as a cold front sweeps
Wednesday - Thursday
This time frame should be mostly dry as we sit in between systems. A
few showers may be possible as a weak shortwave moves through, but
widespread precipitation is not expected at this time.
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through the evening
hours. A NW-SE oriented band of mid-high level cloudiness will
persist and some lower clouds are expected to redevelop toward
morning. Main aviation concern overnight will be low-level wind
shear. This looks to start in the the 24/05-07Z time frame. Surface
winds will be from the south overnight with the low-level jet coming
in around 45-50kts just off the deck (1700-1900 ft AGL). This
should mix out in the 24/14-15Z time frame, but wind gusts
throughout the day on Friday will be in the 15-20kt range.