Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 260444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1244 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The hot weather continues today with SDF and BWG already hitting 90.
However, we are in for a big change over the next 24-36 hours as a
strong cold front pushes through the region tomorrow.

The latest guidance is in fairly good agreement with the cold front
beginning to push into southern IN before dawn tomorrow morning. It
should reach the Ohio River by around daybreak and push through
central KY by early to mid afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms will accompany this front as it moves
through. Have backed off on thunderstorm coverage to slight chance
as there is little instability and some capping shown on soundings.
The best coverage of precipitation looks to be in southern IN during
the morning hours with showers becoming more scattered in nature as
the front moves east in the afternoon. All the rain looks to move
east of the region by late afternoon tomorrow.

Temperatures will be tricky tomorrow as they will depend on coverage
of precipitation and how fast cold air sweeps in behind the front.
Across southern IN and along the Ohio River, temperatures look to
fall in the morning then remain steady or warm a few degrees in the
afternoon in the wake of the front. Across east central KY, temps
will rise in the morning ahead of the front, but look to hold steady
or drop with the rain and the cooler air in the afternoon. Either
way, highs look to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tuesday
morning`s lows will be much cooler than tomorrow morning, dropping
into the mid 40s to around 50.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The long term period will feature temperatures that more closely
match the season we are in (actually slightly cooler than normals).
A deep trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region
through mid week with a cutoff low lingering somewhere across the
area through the end of the week.

The latest GFS and its ensembles are slower to kick out the upper
low than previous runs. However, they are still not as slow as the
ECMWF. Given the slower trend, though, and the persistence of the
ECMWF in keeping the low over the area, have trended pops a bit
upwards. Will introduce slight chances for rain across portions of
southern IN and the Bluegrass region off and on Wednesday through
Saturday. This will need to be monitored over the next few days to
see if the trend towards a wetter solution continues.

Temperatures through the long term period will be much cooler than
the past week with highs in the 70s and low in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The main focus in this TAF period is the frontal passage slated for
this morning between 12-18z across central Kentucky. As of 5z, the
front is analyzed from northwest Indiana to southern Illinois.
Regional radar shows scattered showers developing across central IN
southwest into southern IL.

Expect the front to sweep through SDF between 12-15z, BWG between 14-
17z and LEX between 15-18z. Low-top showers with some thunder will
accompany the front. Ceilings are expected to be mainly VFR, at
least initially though some MVFR ceilings are possible in any
stronger shower for brief periods. Northwest winds will bring drier
air during the afternoon and help scour out cloud cover by late
afternoon. By 00z, central Kentucky should be clear with westerly
winds 5-7 kts. Drier air and a well mixed boundary layer should be
enough to prevent fog formation tonight.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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