Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 251035
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
In the near term, outflow from previous convection is working its
way eastward toward the I-65 corridor. A broken area of showers
will work through the I-65 corridor region over the next hour and
then move through the Bluegrass region early this morning. Not
really expecting much out of this activity, but a few lightning
strikes have been picked up. Most concentrated area of rain will
likely skirt across our southern Indiana counties. Surface warm
front is located across central KY and is lifting northward.
Overnight minimum temperatures have already been hit and
temperatures will continue to warm through the upper 40s and into
the lower 50s by sunrise.
For today, mid-level wave will eject northeastward and we`ll be in
the wake of it. Mid-level subsidence will provide mainly dry
conditions across the region and we`ll be firmly entrenched within
the warm sector. Cloud cover is the main forecast challenge and how
it will affect temperatures this afternoon. Current thinking is
that we`ll see partly cloudy skies during the afternoon with
temperatures warming into the lower 70s. However, should we get
more sunshine, then a run at the upper 70s will be possible. For
now, have trended the forecast slightly warmer by 1-2 degrees across
the board, but did raise temperatures across the Lake Cumberland
region a little bit more where we think less cloudiness will persist.
For tonight and Thursday, another mid-level wave will move into the
region later tonight. Widespread convection, some of it strong to
severe, will develop late this afternoon across the eastern Plains
and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This band of convection will
move eastward and into our area during the overnight hours. As this
convection heads eastward, low-level cold air associated with the
cold front will likely surge out ahead and undercut the convection
to an extent. Thus, the overall threat of organized severe weather
looks to be less across southern IN/central Kentucky and more
concentrated out in areas to our west. Nonetheless, some embedded
thunderstorm activity will cross the region tonight. With a rather
impressive wind field, some gusty winds will be possible with the
overnight convection. Overnight lows will be mild with readings
generally in the mid 50s.
Widespread precipitation should continue into much of the day on
Thursday as the frontal boundary pushes eastward. Temperatures will
hit their highs in the morning and we`ll see an influx of colder air
into the region from NW to SE throughout the day. It would not be
surprising to see a 30 degree temperature gradient across the region
Thursday afternoon. Early day highs in the mid-upper 50s are likely
with temperatures falling into the lower 40s by late
afternoon/evening. Rainfall amounts with this system still look to
be in the 1-1.25 inch range. This may result in some nuisance
hydrological issues in the typical flood prone areas on Thursday.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
The long term period will begin with unseasonably cool temperatures
as a deep trough and Canadian high pressure build in across the
eastern CONUS. We will then see a warming trend from the latter
half of the weekend into the first half of next week.
Precipitation should be moving out of east central KY before
midnight Thursday night in the wake of the cold front. Dry weather
is then expected for the remainder of the night. A shortwave will
round the base of the upper level trough on Friday bringing a shot
for some light precipitation to the northern half of the forecast
area. Thermal profiles suggest there could be a mix of
rain/sleet/possibly snow. However, this will be light and with
temperatures rising into the 40s it should cause no issues.
Dry conditions are then expected Friday night through at least the
first half of Sunday as high pressure builds in and slides across
the region. However, much colder air will accompany this high.
Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 20s both Saturday and
Sunday mornings with highs only in the lower to mid 40s on Saturday.
A weak front will then slide through Sunday into Monday bringing
with it a chance for some rain showers. This front is not expected
to bring much cooler weather, however, as temps will warm into the
50s Monday with 60s expected by Tuesday.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2015
VFR conditions look likely at the terminals throughout much of the
upcoming TAF period. Some scattered low clouds will be possible
across the region as WAA regime kicks into high gear. Latest 11-3.9
micron imagery shows some scattered to broken clouds lingering
across the region. We expect these clouds to mix out this morning
with skies going partly to mostly sunny throughout the day.
Southwest winds of 10-12 knots are expected throughout the day.
Next round of weather to affect the terminals will be late in the
forecast period as a cold front enters the region from the west.
Based on the latest data, it appears that best chances for
precipitation at the terminals will be after 26/04Z.