Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 031049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
649 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2015

The upper low continues to sit over the Gulf Coast this morning.
This low will slowly begin to edge eastward today into tomorrow,
with the center situated over the Atlantic coastline by the end of
the short term period.

Another wave pivoting around this upper low will lead to renewed
rain chances through the day today. The fetch off the Atlantic
continues to pull moisture into the region. Rain will be moving into
east central KY by daybreak and quickly spread across central
Kentucky and into southern Indiana by mid day to early afternoon. The
most prolonged rain still looks to be across east central Kentucky.
However,numerous showers can be expected at least as far west as the
I-65 corridor. Further to the west, rain showers will be at least
scattered. Some of the high res guidance suggests there could be
numerous showers across the entire region today, so this will be
something to watch as pops may need to be raised in the west this

As the upper low shifts eastward tonight, this fetch will begin to
shift to the south and eventually pivot out of central KY. Scattered
rain showers will remain into the overnight hours. However, these
should continue to shift southward. The rain looks to end across the
entire forecast area by mid day Saturday.

As far as temperatures go, with continued rain, clouds and
northeasterly winds, highs will struggle today. Expect them to top
out only in the mid 50s. Lows tonight will drop very little and
could actually rise before sunrise Sunday. Highs on Sunday should be
significantly warmer in the lower to possibly mid 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2015

The upper low that we`re quite well-acquainted with will finally
slip off the Georgia or NE Florida coast Sunday night/early Monday,
giving way to a building upper ridge. Surface high will be centered
over the Great Lakes, so it should be a pleasant air mass. Expect
mild and dry weather for most of the work week, with temps running
just slightly above normal through at least Thursday.

Our next chance for rain is toward the end of the week, when a
northern stream shortwave trof will push east across the Great
Lakes, and drag its cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Timing
remains a bit uncertain as the front is really becoming parallel to
the flow aloft, and could really slow down or stall completely as it
gets to our doorstep. For now will limit Friday POPs to slight
chance or low chance.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Sat Oct 03 2015

Another round of showers will move through central Kentucky today.
These showers should be in the vicinity of all the TAF sites by mid
day today. Showers will continue into the early evening hours before
tapering off. Ceilings will remain low end MVFR to IFR through the
day. They will be tricky as they will likely bounce around from
time to time. There should be some improvement towards dawn on
Sunday as the rain moves out and some drier air filters in. Winds
through the day will be out of the northeast and gust to 17-20 knots
at times.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RAS
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