Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
854 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Instability is waning now with the setting sun, but we did have
quite the warm day, with SDF hitting its hottest temp of the year at
96. Have updated the forecast to tailor pops to our northwest,
northeast, and south for a few more hours. Otherwise, since coverage
of rain was over a large area, bumped up fog wording to
patches/areas late tonight.

Issued at 620 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Updated the forecast to better match ongoing convection.  A cluster
of storms that formed in the Bluegrass earlier created a good cold
pool and outflow boundary.  That boundary was spreading out to the
west and south across central KY and southern IN as of 2215Z
resulting in gusty winds of 30-40 mph and sparking storms in a
moderately unstable environment with good DCAPE.  A few of the
storms have become marginally severe with a few downed trees in some
locations this evening.  Also storms have been producing small hail.

In addition to an isld damaging wind and small hail threat, heavy
rainfall and minor flooding will continue to be a concern while
storms continue to develop along boundaries creating training of
cells in some locations.  Minor street flooding has been reported in
Lexington and Berea earlier this evening.

Storms should diminish in coverage and intensity shortly after
sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A shortwave rounding the western edge of the ridge to our east is
helping kick off convection this afternoon in a moderately unstable
environment.  Expect isld-scattered storms to continue to develop
over the area late this afternoon and lasting through the evening
hours before diminishing.  The main threats with these storms will
be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall.  A few storms have the
potential to become severe with wind gusts over 50 mph.  Also, with
very slow storm motions and very heavy rainfall, minor flooding
issues may be a concern this evening.

For tonight, expect dry conditions by late evening and through the
overnight hours.  Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s
again.

Monday will be another hot, muggy day with 20-30% chances of
showers/storms during the afternoon/early evening hrs.  At this
point, the short range models don`t show a clear trigger for storms.
Think that left over boundaries from tonight`s convection may be a
determining factor for tomorrow`s. Soundings are again favorable for
pulse type storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.  High temps
will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100
degrees during the late afternoon hours.  Monday night lows will
range from the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Tuesday - Wednesday...

A few more hot days ahead Tue/Wed before a front comes through late
Wed.  Tue looks mainly dry with no real trigger in the area to spark
storms and a decent cap aloft. However, Wed afternoon we could see a
few storms during the afternoon/evening hours as we get some forcing
as the cold front approaches from the NNW.  The exact timing of the
fropa will determine how far south we see storms push into our
region before we lose instability into the evening hours and
convection diminishes.  Will focus the best convection chances over
southern Indiana for now and adjust in coming days as the forecast
becomes a bit more clear.

Thursday - Sunday...

A much more pleasant airmass will arrive behind the front for the
rest of the work week.  Highs will drop back into the upper 70s to
mid 80s for Thu/Fri/Sat with lower humidities.  The airmass will be
more stable as well in the upper trough resulting in dry days.

By Sunday, however, we`ll start to see a warm-up as an upper ridge
begins to work back into the region from the west.  Highs will be
back into the mid to upper 80s with dewpts creeping back toward 70
Sun afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have been waning this evening and will
continue to do so. Will just have some VC convection in the TAFs for
the first couple of hours.

Dew points have mixed down quite a bit in most places this evening,
and sct/bkn clouds will likely persist through the night, but some
light BR can still be expected in the calm of the early morning on
Monday.

Widely scattered storms will once again be possible in the heat of
the day tomorrow. Not enough of a signal for inclusion in the TAFs
yet.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......13


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