Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 241338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
938 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Freshened up the products to remove morning fog wording. Otherwise,
expect mostly sunny skies with highs still expected to top out on
either side of 80. These temps will have a pleasant feel as dew
points continue to drop toward the upper 50s behind the front.

Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A surge of drier air behind the cold front is making its way into
central Kentucky, and in its wake it has cleared any fog that
developed this morning. Have started to drop counties in northern
and western portions of the dense fog advisory where the drier air
has already worked in. Rest of forecast looks on track.

Issued at 445 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dense fog has continued to form across the region where clearing has
taken place, so have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for
areas experiencing dense fog as well as areas that could see some
dense fog develop in the next hour or so.


.Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday evening)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Surface analysis reveals a cold front has nearly cleared the CWA at
this hour, with the Lake Cumberland region just now starting to see
a wind shift to the northwest. Cooler and drier air has filtered in
behind the front, allowing for some clearing skies this morning.
Winds will remain relatively light through the early morning hours,
and with saturated grounds and some clearing, we could see some
patchy fog develop across portions of the CWA, especially down near
the Lake Cumberland region. Any fog that does develop should
dissipate shortly after sunrise.

A rather pleasant weekend is in store as cooler and drier air
continue to funnel in from the west and northwest. Temperatures will
generally be in the upper 80s to low 70s for highs, and overnight
lows will fall into the 50s.  Winds could be a bit breezy at times
this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as deep mixing within the
boundary layer takes place.


.Long Term...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Strong high pressure system from Canada will begin dropping into the
Plains and eventually Ohio River valley region through the first
half of the long term period. This will result in dry and relatively
cool conditions (by late June standards) for the early part of next
week. Not expecting to break any records, but some temperatures
could come within a few degrees of record lows and/or record low max
for this timeframe. See the climate section of the AFD for an
overview of the records.

By Wednesday, the high pressure system will begin to into the east
coast and eventually settle over the Atlantic. At the same time, an
upper level ridge over the Plains will begin moving into the Ohio
River valley region. This will result in a more summer-like pattern
for the region, with increasing temperatures and humidity for the
end of next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also
return by Thursday and continue into the weekend.


.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Clearing skies overnight allowed dense fog to form over central
Kentucky, especially in the areas that received the heaviest rain
Thu-Fri. Main terminal affected by fog this morning is LEX, which is
socked in below field mins.

Low-level boundary has been evident on radar and should push through
LEX shortly after the valid TAF time, so will initialize with dense
fog but quickly improve to VFR. Only other fly in the ointment would
be lingering stratus at BWG but that will be an issuance time

Winds pick up this afternoon to a solid 10-12 kt, and SDF/LEX will
have gusts just shy of 20 kt during peak heating. Drier column
tonight will limit fog concerns, even with light winds again.


Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Here are some record low max and record low climate data for the
early part of next week for SDF, LEX, and BWG ASOS sites.

Record Lows        Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              52              52                51
June 27th              52              51                52
June 28th              53              50                50

Record Low Max     Louisville      Lexington       Bowling Green
June 26th              68              66                75




Short Term...DM
Long Term...DM
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