Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
553 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Broad trough axis over the region now with a few smaller vortmaxes
embedded within its flow. One such vortmax now is entering western
Iowa and northwest Missouri. As it heads eastward, the NAM responds
by developing a line of storms along the lower Ohio and Wabash later
this afternoon. Given amount of moisture in place and boundaries
from precip yesterday would not be surprised to see other scattered
storms developing ahead of this, more like the representation of the
WRF`s. As such will broad brush a 40 pop across the region this
afternoon. Timing of precip will have an effect on high temperatures
today, but in general should see readings in the mid 80s. Coverage
of storms and speed of motion should limit chances for flooding
today. Cannot rule out localized flooding, but expect coverage to be
isolated enough to preclude going with a flash flood watch.

As that PV anomaly gets east of our region tonight, some drier air
will try and filter in from the north. Statistical guidance responds
by bring us less rain chances Saturday. Previous forecast had higher
pops, and do not want to rule out chances altogether, given the
troughing over the region. Will trend pops down for now.
Temperatures should be similar today for highs, in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Little changes with the pattern Sunday, but by Monday, the main
trough axis will have shifts into the eastern Great Lakes region.
This shift will bring us back into a favorite forecasting pattern,
northwest flow aloft in the long range. This pattern looks to remain
in place through midweek, with the GFS/Euro/GEM all showing various
timing for disturbances dropping down in this flow. By Wednesday,
the ridge will start bringing the heat and by Thursday the ridge
axis looks to be along the Ohio Valley, according to the GEFS
ensembles.  Spreads are low for the scenario, so there is some
confidence in its solution. That ridge should limit us to isolated
to widely scattered airmass thunderstorms in the afternoon and early


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 552 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Main TAF challenge will be low stratus/light fog potential this
morning and convective timing/coverage this afternoon.  Low stratus
and some fog has developed across portions of the region this
morning, but development has been very patchy thus far.  A few
showers around LEX may be helping out the ceiling so far, but MVFR
stratus/vsbys may still be possible yet this morning.  Will improve
SDF/BWG to VFR through the rest of the morning hours given the
latest trends.

For this afternoon, expect convection to break out along a weak
boundary in south-central KY.  This could affect mainly BWG, so will
introduce VCTS.  Showers and storms can`t be ruled out this
afternoon at SDF/LEX, but not confident enough in timing/coverage to
include any mention as of now.  Outside of any storms, winds will be
generally light out of the WSW.  Convection will diminish tonight
with light and variable winds.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
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