Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 270119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
919 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

QLCS continues to push east across the forecast area. Outflow
boundary has pushed ahead of the higher reflectivity values from
Louisville southward indicating transition to outflow dominant QLCS
with backward slanted updrafts along the leading line. This would
suggest a slow weakening trend to the line over the next couple
hours. Radar has suggested that the highest winds are remaining just
off the surface. Nevertheless, winds should still be strong for
awhile with SDF just having gusted to 39 kts along the outflow
boundary. Isolated severe winds are still possible. For now, we have
cleared several counties in our western forecast area, and will
continue to do so as the leading line moves east.

Issued at 655 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #111 has been issued through 2 am EDT/1 am
CDT to the east of Watch #110. The WCN and updated forecast have
been sent. This puts our entire forecast area in a Watch through 11
pm EDT for our northern and western counties, and through 2 am EDT
for our eastern and southern counties.

Radar had showed what appeared to be a little less organization to
the QLCS`s convective cold pool to our west. However, new cells
developing ahead of the cold pool have merged with the line,
effectively reinvigorating the QLCS. With an MCV over far southeast
IL moving east, and with surface-based lifted indices around -6 or
-7, mixed-layer CAPE near 2000 J/kg, and with downward CAPE (DCAPE)
of 1000-1200 J/kg ahead of the line over central KY, there is still
a favorable environment present for severe wind gusts the QLCS`s
leading line, despite only modest shear. The strongest winds overall
should occur over southern IN and north-central KY for the next 1-2
hrs. The line will then continue into the rest of central KY a
little later this evening, and we will assess the integrity of the
line at that time.

Issued at 420 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #110 has been issued for areas along and
west of I-65 until 11 PM EDT/10 PM CDT. We`ve destabilized to the
tune of ML CAPE values between 2000-3000 J/KG ahead of an
approaching MCS now over southern IL and SE MO. This feature has a
nice cold pool and has been warned on since this morning, and will
continue to head into a favorable environment into the evening
hours. Scattered showers ans storms out ahead of the MCS also have a
pulse severe threat with marginally severe hail and isolated
damaging winds possible, along with heavy rainfall and CG lightning.
Main threat with the MCS itself will be damaging winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Evening...

Widely scattered showers have popped mainly along and north of I-64
at this hour, although a few isolated showers are also present
across central KY. H7 cap is eroding and with temps in the low 80s
combined with dew points pooling in the low to mid 60s, we`re seeing
ML CAPE values around 2000 J/KG. Showers and storms will initially
lack organization, however as we move into the late afternoon and
evening hours we`ll see more coverage and organization ahead of a
frontal boundary sagging south toward the Ohio River, and with a
cold pool driven MCS currently near St. Louis. Overall, deep shear
values will only top out in the marginal 25 to 30 knot range through
early evening, so think we`ll see pulse storm modes and a few
multicell clusters capable of hail and gusty winds. As we move to
around sunset, expect the MCS to arrive in our NW CWA and push ESE
through the Midnight hour. Gusty winds, with a few instances of
damaging winds will be the main concern, along with CG lightning and
heavy rainfall.

Expect convective complex to push south and east of the CWA past the
Midnight hour with a relatively quiet remainder of the overnight.
Think the synoptic frontal boundary will actually stay up over
southern IN, where some isolated showers/storm chances will linger.
A secondary area of concern for elevated showers and storms in the
pre-dawn hours will be wherever the cold pool induced boundary ends
up. As we move through the day on Wednesday, expect coverage of
showers and storms to increase as isentropic ascent over the
boundaries increases in response to negative tilt trough
approaching. Eventually, the warm sector should get established over
our region and the big question will be how much we destabilize for
when main forcing arrives with the ejecting shortwave. Overall,
think destabilization will be the limiting factor in what would
otherwise be favorable for some organized stronger storms. Like the
conditional Marginal Risk and we will be able to get a better handle
on things once the warm sector progress becomes apparent. Will
continue to mention the threat for a few stronger storms in the HWO,
but overall think best show should be west and north of the CWA
Wednesday evening.

Widespread showers and storms push out Wednesday night, however we
will have to deal with potential for more scattered showers and
storms on Thursday before cool front finally slides through.

Upper ridging begins to build in by Thursday night, starting a brief
dry spell to end the work week.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is shower/storm chances
starting this weekend and continuing into the first part of next

The upper level pattern on Friday is expected to feature a flat
ridge over the lower Ohio Valley while an anomalous trough remains
over the southwest US. Surface high pressure centered north of the
area will provide a dry, less humid and seasonable day. Look
for highs to top out in the 70s with east/northeast winds.

The next system will begin to approach the area on Saturday as
another PV anomaly comes out of the central Plains. Saturday
morning is likely to start off dry as we`ll be north of the warm
front, with mostly cloudy skies and light east winds. As the warm
front lifts north through the area during the day, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible, but this may hold off until the mid
afternoon or evening hours.

Sunday`s storm threat is looking more interesting as the
deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a surface low tracking
through the mid-Mississippi Valley during the day. With the area
well into the warm sector characterized by dewpoints in the mid 60s
and the upper level trough passing through, there`s the chance of
stronger storms. Timing specific impulses and the quality of the
thermodynamic environment is still in question, so there remains
some uncertainty. A model consensus continues to show high POPs in
the 60 to 80 percent range for Sunday.

The unsettled weather may continue Monday and Monday night as the
upper wave remains nearby. Beyond that, some suggestions that we`ll
see a period of upper level ridging which may bring some drier and
seasonable weather to the area. Will lean toward a model consensus
for those latter time frames.


.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 745 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Main TAF concern this evening will be thunderstorms...some on the
strong to severe side.  We`ll continue to see scattered storms near
the TAF sites this evening ahead of a complex of storms moving east
out of IL/southwest IN late this evening.  The complex of storms
should move through the TAF sites by around 3-5Z with only VCSH
expected in it`s wake.  Storms look to re-fire tomorrow along a
synoptic boundary and old outflow boundaries from this evening`s
storms.  Multiple rounds of storms are expected tomorrow.

Specifics for this evening`s convection...

BWG...VCTS through 1Z.  1-4Z is the best time for the complex of
storms to move through...some may be on the strong side.

SDF...VCTS through 0015Z.  0015-2Z is the best time for the complex
of storms to move through...some could be strong to severe.  May
need to make a quick amendment with tempo of stronger winds/lower
vsbys if the complex maintains strength.

LEX...Light TSRA through 1z.  Then VCTS from 1-145Z.  145-5Z best
time for the complex of storms to move through...some may be on the
strong side.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......ZT
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