Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181142
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
642 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 629 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Moisture in the lower level of the atmosphere continues to
increase this morning. Some light rain is now beginning to be
reported from showers across south central KY. Pops were updated
to bring precipitation further to the north a bit quicker this
morning, but overall no big changes were made.

&&

.Short Term...(This afternoon through Sunday evening)
Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper level low currently centered over eastern Oklahoma will
lift to the northeast today and swing across the Lower Ohio Valley.
Moisture will be on the increase today as this system moves in. Rain
showers associated with this system will begin to move in this
morning and move north though mid afternoon. The latest guidance
keeps most of the rain in central Kentucky. There is also a bit of
discrepancy in how great the coverage of showers will be. The
GFS/NMM/ARW would suggest coverage would be fairly decent across
central KY. However, the NAM/RAP keep most of the rain to the east
and do not show much in the way of shower activity across central
KY. Because of this uncertainty, have capped pops at 50%. Showers
will move off to the east this evening with dry weather then
expected on Sunday as high pressure and upper level ridging begin to
build in.

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday with the cloud
cover and shower. However, they should still top out in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will be mild, dropping into the mid to
upper 40s. Highs Sunday will be bounce back into the mid to upper
60s.

.Long Term...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper level ridging will continue building across the region Sunday
night into Monday. Well above normal temperatures will continue.
Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s. They will then rebound
quickly with highs topping out in the lower 70s in most locations on
Monday. This looks to be the warmest day of the extended period.

Monday night through Tuesday night a strong upper level low will
swing across the Gulf Coast states. To the north, another weaker
wave will swing across the Great Lakes region and lower Ohio Valley.
The latest model runs do show these two features trying to phase,
which would lead to a bit better chance for rain Tuesday for our
region. This best chance for rain currently looks to be during the
day Tuesday with precipitation slowly moving eastward Tuesday night.

There should be a brief period of dry weather before a warm front
moves north across the region Thursday bringing a chance for shower.
However, the better chance for rain and some storms will be Friday
as a strong cold front approaches and moves through. Soundings do
show some decent instability will develop with this system, so have
added in the mention of thunderstorms to the forecast.

In the wake of the Friday system, we should see a decent cool down.
After highs in the mid to upper 60s the rest of the week, Saturday`s
highs look to top out in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper level low over western Arkansas will continue to move
northeast toward the Ohio Valley today.  Ahead of this feature,
clouds will continue to increase and lower across the region.  In
general VFR conditions are expected but we`ll see ceilings drop
toward the MVFR/VFR thresholds later this afternoon and evening.
Surface winds will remain out of the southwest at 4-8kts.  Scattered
showers will be possible during the period as well.

For tonight, the upper low will pass overhead.  This should allow
plenty of clouds to stay socked in across the region.  Latest
guidance has gone a little more pessimistic on ceilings as well. For
now, have dropped ceiling heights a little bit and keep them in the
higher end of the MVFR range.  Scattered showers will be possible
during the evening hours and then wane after midnight as the upper
low pulls off to the east.


&&

.Climate...
Issued at 637 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days.

Louisville: Fri. Feb. 17 record high:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update...EER
Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
Aviation.....MJ
Climate...RJS/EER


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