Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 160031
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
731 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.Forecast Update...
Updated 725 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

Went ahead and extended the Winter Wx Advy for all of south central
Indiana through 6Z tonight.  A moderate snow band was still over
portions of southern Indiana/northern Kentucky near the Ohio River
with more light bands downstream over southwest Indiana.  High-res
guidance indicates these bands will persist over southern
Indiana/northern Kentucky through much of the evening hours
providing up to an additional two inches of snow and locally higher
amounts especially closer to the Ohio River.

Elsewhere the Winter Wx Advy looks good and the Wind Chill Advy is
on track for later tonight.  May need to consider a second Winter Wx
Advy extension in time for central KY later tonight based on some of
the evening guidance.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 259 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Snow Will Continue Into Tuesday Morning...

Light to moderate snow will continue to fill in this afternoon and
early evening from west to east. Some portions of southern IN have
already received up to 2 inches of additional snow today. Snow is
beginning to become lighter across portions of southern IN where it
began earliest today. However, some light snow will linger there
through the next few hours.

The Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for the entire region,
though some areas in east and south central KY may not see snow
starting for another 2-3 hours. Radar returns over these areas
currently are likely not reaching the ground as there is still a
significant temp/dewpoint spread. Snow will begin this afternoon as
the column saturates. Across the rest of the region, there has been
a weakening trend with the snow over the last couple of hours as was
mentioned in the morning discussion. However, as the upper level jet
pivots across the lower Ohio Valley, we should be more in the right
entrance region. This will help to enhance the snow once again this
evening across central KY. Snowfall totals through the event are
still forecast to be generally 1-2 inches across the region with
localized 3 inch amounts. No changes are planned at this time to the
Winter Weather Advisory.

Temperatures will fall quite quickly tonight. Lows will range from
near zero in portions of southern IN to the teens across east
central KY. With winds staying in the 7-10 mph range, this will lead
to very cold wind chills tomorrow morning, ranging from the single
digits above zero to -12. The coldest wind chills will be along and
north of the Ohio River. High temperatures Tuesday will be quite
cold, topping out in the teens across the region.

For tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening, lower level moisture
will stream in from the north. Soundings suggest some flurries will
develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight
hours. Generally, not much accumulation is expected with these
flurries but isolated spots may see a dusting.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

The upper trough will be shifting east of the area on Wednesday and
as it does so, flurries should come to an end. As we head into the
second half of the work week, high pressure will build in from the
west. Aloft the flow will become more zonal in nature. This will
lead to temperatures warming through the end of the week. Wednesday
and Thursday mornings will again be very cold with low temps in the
single digits. However, winds will be lighter so wind chill will not
be much of a factor. By Friday morning we should be back into the
upper teens to lower 20s for lows. Highs will be back to near normal
on Friday.

As we head into the weekend ridging will build aloft as a low
pressure system develops to the west. Return southerly flow will
usher in more humid and warmer air. Saturday some warm advection
showers will develop across the region. Sunday into Monday the low
pressure system will track northeast across the Midwest into the
Great Lakes region with a cold front approaching the forecast area.
More widespread showers with potentially even a few thunderstorms
are expected Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be much warmer
into this weekend with highs on Sunday even approaching 60 in some
places.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

A large band of light snow showers, with embedded moderate to heavy
snow bands, are impacting most of the region at this hour with the
exception of the Lake Cumberland region and parts of the Kentucky
Bluegrass. This area of snow showers is moving generally west to
east, with IFR to MVFR cigs/vis being reported. Models show an
uptick in snowfall intensity after midnight tonight near the BWG/LEX
terminals, so will keep the reduced cigs/vis going into tomorrow
morning for those sites. Drier air and VFR conditions will filter in
from the west tonight and continue to push eastward tomorrow morning
behind a cold front.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday
     for INZ076>079-083-084-089.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to noon EST /11
     AM CST/ Tuesday for INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for INZ090>092.

KY...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Tuesday
     for KYZ023.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     KYZ036-037-040>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-070>078-081-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     KYZ023>035-038-039-045-053-061>063.

&&

$$

Update...AMS
Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation...DM



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