Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 152330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the front has settled down
into central TN. With it the showers and storms that developed
across south central KY this morning have shifted south of the KY/TN
border as well.

For tonight surface high pressure will be over the region bringing
mostly clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Some patchy
fog to areas of fog will develop after midnight across the region as
temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s.

Any fog that does develop should mix out quickly in the morning with
a mostly clear and dry day expected. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than today, topping out in the mid to upper 80s.

For tomorrow night, a cold front will drop towards southern IN.
Storms will develop along this front during the daytime across
northern and central IN. However, most models continue to dissipate
this precipitation by the time it reaches our southern IN counties.
Therefore, will keep a dry forecast going for Sunday night. Lows
Sunday night will dip into the middle to upper 60s.

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

The weak frontal boundary dropping towards the area Sunday night
will continue to slowly make its way through central KY on Monday.
Some showers and storms could refire along this boundary on Monday
afternoon, so will keep isolated to scattered rain chances in Monday
through Monday evening.

Thereafter, upper level ridging will build in through the midweek
timeframe. This ridging will suppress convection, resulting in a dry
forecast from Tuesday through much of Thursday night.

For Friday into the weekend, we will begin to see a better chance
for showers and storms as ridging starts to retreat to the west.
Another front will sink south towards the area. Models continue to
struggle a bit with this time frame regarding when the front makes
its way in and how much the upper ridging breaks down. Therefore,
will not go too high with pops for any one time frame, but carry
isolated to scattered chances for precipitation Friday through

Temperatures will be hot and muggy this week, particularly from
Wednesday on. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will keep skies clear
overnight, and winds will go calm for the early morning hours. The
only aviation concern Sunday morning is the potential for areas of
fog. Confidence is high in MVFR vsbys at LEX/BWG, and LEX may see a
brief period of IFR. Once the fog mixes out, the rest of Sunday will
be VFR with light winds.




Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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