Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 271647
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

WELL...THE AMAZING AUGUST CP AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING 1 MORE DAY AS IT SLIDES EWD
FROM THE WINDY CITY TO THE KEYSTONE STATE. THE VWP WINDS OFF THE 88D
HAVE BACKING LLVL WINDS, ALMOST UNHEARD OF FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOR THE PRE 1ST PERIOD

WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS SRN/EAST-CENTRAL KY. RIGHT NOW SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CLEAR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3 DEGREES.
PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD AN EXCELLENT FORECAST GOING WITH ENHANCED
FOG SMART TOOL FOR FOG PRONE AREAS THROUGH 12-13Z. WILL KEEP THIS
GOING. ALSO PESKY LLVL CLOUD OVER ACROSS FAR EASTERN IN AND BUCKEYE
STATE DOWN TO CVG AND IMS.  UPDATED CLOUD COVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION ACROSS
THE BLUEGRASS THROUGH HENRY/TRIMBLE AND OVER TO MADISON INDIANA THIS
MORNING. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOISTURE AT H8 SO WE EXPECT
DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, YIELDING MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO VERY LOW
80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL IN THE UPPER 50S.
SHAVED OFF 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS NRN BLUEGRASS DUE TO LLVL SKY COVER .

FRIDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WILL BUILD
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SHRTWV OVER NRN PLAINS. THE H8 WINDS WILL
BEGINNING VEERING TO THE S-SW ALLOWING SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO
WARM UP. TEMPS WILL BE IN 83-87 RANGE, AND DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 60S FRI AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL PASS TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.  ISLD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SAT NIGHT/SUN AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.  FORCING WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE SETUP SO ONLY GARDEN VARIETY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST WITH QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE (A
FEW HUNDRETHS TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN).

THE LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE 0Z OPS GFS TAKES A WEAK REMNANT PIECE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND LINGERS IT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MON/MONDAY NIGHT
THEN MERGES THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA.  THE ECMWF
TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LOW EASTWARD WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK IN STORE
WITH ERIKA REMNANTS STAYING WELL TO OUR SE.  WILL SIDE WITH THE
DRIER SOLN FOR NOW BUT THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES SAT-MON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR LOWS. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR MID
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND LEX
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JDG
LONG TERM.........AMS
AVIATION..........EER


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