Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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174
FXUS63 KLMK 280717
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Upper ridge still oriented east-to-west across the area, along with
a sloppy surface pattern, have created a fairly stagnant pattern
both at the surface and aloft. Warm and muggy conditions will
persist through the short-term, but confidence in the convective
forecast is low. Models continue to advertise mid-level cooling but
even if that does occur, convective temps remain in the lower 90s
and will limit our storm chances.

Might see slightly better coverage today, as a weak impulse tries to
move slowly north into Kentucky. Best chances are in east-central
Kentucky, where more boundaries remain from Sat evening storms. Will
go with scattered coverage there, and isolated to the west, but that
may still be generous. Not expecting any organization to the storms,
but pulse storms with marginally severe wind gusts are the main
threat. Max temps close to persistence, with afternoon heat indices
near 100 again.

Went dry tonight as any storms still appear to be diurnally driven.
A little more confident of scattered coverage over a larger area on
Monday, as the upper ridge starts to break down. Not much to focus
convection, so most areas should have ample opportunity to warm into
the low 90s with heat index values touching 100.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Warm and muggy pattern will continue most of the first half of the
week, but upper ridging and a lack of discernible surface features
will limit chances for diurnal convection to 20-30%, with the best
chances on Monday and Wednesday. Might see the temps and dewpoints
gradually ease by Wednesday as ridging starts to break down.

A broad upper trof drops into eastern Canada by Thursday, and pushes
a cold front through the Ohio Valley. Given the timing and placement
of the trof, it looks like a nocturnal, almost backdoor fropa, which
does not lend itself to precip chances.

Expect below normal temps with much more comfortable humidity levels
late in the week as a 1027mb Canadian high builds into the Great
Lakes. However, bust potential creeps in over the weekend as upper
ridging tries to build from the SW, and could allow temps to
overachieve.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Not a lot to go on for pinpointing convection timing or location
this forecast period.  Atypical storm movement from the southeast to
the northwest the past day is due to weak mid and upper high
pressure over the Atlantic coastline.  Over the next 24 hours, this
weakens, leaving all three TAF sites in a stagnant warm, sticky air
mass with no clear triggers for convection.  Forecast soundings show
a thermal cap weak enough to ALMOST be broken by surface heating,
but it will likely take some forcing from residual outflow
boundaries from today`s storms to get things going.  With no clear
indication of where those are at the moment, PROB30 and VCTS are
the best that can be forecast until something develops.

Prior to all of that, some MVFR vsby reductions may occur prior to
sunrise, though with none of the TAF sites receiving rainfall from
Saturday`s storms, even MVFR may be overdone.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JBS



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