Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 241410
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1010 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016
Only minor adjustments needed for the forecast through early
afternoon across the area. Look for a mid/high cloud deck to spill
in from the west, and regional radar does show light returns over
southwest KY and southern IL. For the most part, this activity is
not reaching the ground, but as moisture increases this afternoon
and a disturbance comes in from Missouri, couldn`t rule out a
sprinkle or stray shower/thunderstorm across our western and
southwestern areas this afternoon. HRRR and 12z NAM are suggesting
this as well. As a result, introduced some slight chances for the
mid/late afternoon, west of I-65. Otherwise, look for highs to top
out in the low/mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016
High pressure is centered over the Appalachians this morning with an
upper level trough just off the east coast and an amplified ridge
over the lower Ohio Valley. This will result in continue dry weather
today with mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds will continue to
usher in warmer and more humid air. However, dewpoints should still
stay in the 50s today. Highs will top out in the lower to mid 80s
across the region.
Clouds will be on the increase late this afternoon and this evening
as a disturbance moving through the upper level flow approaches the
region. As this feature moves through isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across southern IN and
far west central KY through the evening and overnight hours. Another
vortmax will then approach and move into the region during the day
Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers and storms. The
best chance for any precipitation will again be across southern IN,
north of I-64, and west of I-65 in KY.
Low temperatures tonight will drop only into the 60s in most
locations. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the lower to mid 80s
again, likely a degree or two warmer than today. However, dewpoints
rising into the lower to mid 60s will make it feel muggier.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016
From Wednesday night through the end of the week, upper level
troughing will become established across the western half of the
CONUS. As this does, ridging will amplify across the lower Ohio
Valley. This ridging will become even more enhanced as the trough
lifts out of the Plains this weekend.
A couple more disturbances will move through the southwesterly flow
aloft through the end of the work week. This will bring rounds of
storms to the region. There will continue to be a gradient across
the region when it comes to storms chances. Given the proximity to
the edge of the ridge, west central KY and southern IN will have the
best chance for storms, with chances decreasing to the east.
Going into the weekend, as the ridge becomes more established across
the lower Ohio Valley, storm chances may become more diurnal in
nature. This diurnal trend looks to last into Memorial Day. With the
lack of a specific trigger for storms, they should remain isolated
to scattered, so will carry generally 20-30% pops for the holiday
weekend. Certainly not a washout.
Though temperatures will depend somewhat on coverage of
precipitation this week, in general they will be above average.
Highs look to top out in the 80s each day with lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016
Will start off clear and nearly calm, but with high pressure
building over the southeast CONUS we`ll introduce a SW gradient that
will provide a light SW wind and increasing moisture. Flow aloft is
weak, and model guidance still shows a weak upper disturbance,
currently over southern Missouri, moving east across the Ohio Valley
tonight. Gridded GFS and NAM12 MOS both showing fairly high POPs
after 06Z for BWG and SDF, but low-level moisture is lacking. Will
show mid-level clouds increasing, but for now will leave any precip
out of the TAFs through 12Z Wed.