Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 220714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Patchy fog isn`t out of the question around the sunrise hours.
Otherwise, expect a quiet early morning period with temperatures in
the upper 50s and low 60s.

Surface high pressure centered near the region today will slowly
drift toward the mid Atlantic Coast by later tomorrow. Meanwhile,
upper ridging will hold aloft. This will set the stage for a dry and
pleasant entry into our new work week. Today, expect mostly sunny
skies with most highs in the 79 to 84 range. Continued clear skies
and calm winds overnight should allow for excellent radiational
cooling conditions, and lows dropping into the 55-60 range.

Light southerly flow will commence on the back side of the surface
high pressure by Tuesday. We`ll see rising 1000-850 mb temps and
thicknesses as a result. Overall, a 2-3 degree warmup should be
anticipated which will put highs more solidly into the mid 80s. A
range of 83 to 87 should be common in most spots.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Upper ridge will stay centered over the Gulf Coast states with the
Ohio River Valley positioned on the northern fringes of this
feature. Meanwhile, stronger westerlies associated with broad SW
flow aloft should generally stretch from the southern Plains up
through the Great Lakes. A shortwave embedded in this flow will move
NW of our area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with enough of a
warm advection arm (mini-warm front) lifting over our north to
possibly squeeze out a few isolated showers across our NW. Will
mention slight chances on Wednesday, with a noticeable increase in
sky cover. Expect lows in the mid 60s Tuesday night, with highs in
the mid and upper 80s Wednesday.

Wednesday Night - Friday...

As we move toward the end of the week the upper ridge to our south
will lose a little strength, which should allow the better SW flow
aloft and a quasi-stationary front to wander into our region. Will
continue to keep small chances for mainly diurnally driven showers
and storms in during this time. Don`t see coverage being very
impressive as front will be weak and we will still be under some
subsidence from the nearby upper ridge. For this reason, am leaning
toward the drier solutions offered by the ECMWF/GFS Ensemble mean,
which still allow for some isolated to widely scattered wording.
Some areas may get gapped by precip chances as activity will be
focused across southern IN on Thursday. Once that activity dies off
in the evening, the front could slip quietly south overnight, and
only initiate isolated to widely scattered chances across southern
KY on Friday.

Overall this will be the warmest/muggiest portion of the long term
as temperatures rise to the upper 80s to around 90 each afternoon
along with dew points in the low 70s. Wednesday and Thursday night
lows will be in the low 70s.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Post frontal airmass as we head into the weekend with high pressure
in control at the surface and aloft. Will continue to favor a
ECMWF/GFS Ensemble mean solution which will keep us dry. Lows will
be slightly cooler behind the front, back in the upper 60s each
night. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure overhead will make for light and variable winds this
period and mostly VFR conditions. Exceptions may be some light
morning fog at BWG/LEX and perhaps a few cumulus clouds in the late
morning to early afternoon.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.