Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 171709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2014

Expect better weather than the last few days today, assuming you
like sunshine and 70s for highs. A dry cool front will move through
the region this evening though to bring us back below normal for the
weekend. Winds will gust from the southwest today ahead of that
front.

A secondary front will approach late tonight and bring cloud cover
as it passes during the day Saturday. These clouds will keep
temperatures down during the day as well as a low chance for light
rain showers in the afternoon, mainly over the Bluegrass. Highs
there should stay in the 50s, whereas southwest KY should see low to
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2014

Two main questions in the forecast period are temps and even frost
potential on Sunday morning, and southward/westward extent of precip
with the Mon-Tue cold front.

Surface high will settle directly over the Ohio Valley by Sunday
morning, and will support strong radiational cooling. Confidence is
limited by uncertainty over how quickly skies will clear Saturday
evening, especially over the Bluegrass region, which will be closer
to the departing upper trof. Current forecast leans on the slightly
warmer NAM MOS, which leaves us with fairly uniform upper 30s away
from the Louisville Metro. The area usually most favored for colder
temps and patchy valley frost will be the last to clear, so will not
include a mention yet. Will let the day crew have a closer look with
one more model run in play.

Upper pattern becomes more amplified Mon-Tue, with an upper low
digging through the Great Lakes and closing off over the Virginias.
Cold front will reinforce the Canadian high, bringing chance POPs to
the Ohio Valley mainly on Monday night and Tuesday. QPF will be low,
and it`s quite likely we will see a sharper cutoff in the precip
somewhere across central Kentucky. Best rain chances over southern
Indiana and the Bluegrass, while south-central Kentucky could remain
high and dry with this system.

Canadian high pressure will remain in control the latter half of the
week, maintaining generally below normal temps through the period.
Sunday morning and Thursday morning appear to be the coldest ones
with the most favorable radiational conditions and best chance for
temps dipping into the 30s. Highs will generally struggle to get
much above 60 each day, with the warmest temps on Monday just ahead
of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 108 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and tonight,
before potentially MVFR cigs move in towards Saturday morning.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail this afternoon, as WSW
winds continue to remain gusty out ahead of a surface cold front.
This front will push through tonight into Saturday, bringing
increasing cloudiness.  High-end MVFR cigs look likely with this
system, with perhaps even a few sprinkles or light showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  Will leave precip mention out for now given the expected
low coverage, but will continue with MVFR cig mention.  Behind the
front, winds will be out of the NNW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





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