Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 270706
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016
Unsettled pattern remains in place with amplified flow aloft, and a
juicy air mass residing over the Ohio Valley. However, the best
moisture feed remains over the Mississippi Valley, so it`s been a
mainly dry night across central Kentucky, and only a couple of
showers have developed over southern Indiana, but still confined to
the Wabash Valley.
Boundary left over from Thursday afternoon convection is quite
difficult to identify in a sloppy surface pressure pattern, but
could still spark a stray shower or storm this morning before it
lifts north of the area. Otherwise expect a dry day across much of
central Kentucky as we`ll be in a squeeze play between the main
moisture plume to our west, and isolated-scattered storms that
over the Cumberland Plateau. The latter convection will likely
bleed northward into east-central Kentucky, including the
Bluegrass region, late in the day into this evening. Confidence is
limited so will only carry a 20 POP there. With a better shot at
sunshine today, temps will push well into the mid/upper 80s, and
we could even squeeze out a 90, with Louisville as the most likely
location given the heat island influences.
Upper low tries to lift out of the Plains on Saturday, and impulses
coming through the base of that trof will make for a more
convectively active day across the Ohio Valley. Still not expecting
anything organized, and certainly not a day-long washout, but enough
of the area will see rain to justify a low-end likely POP in the
afternoon. Plenty of clouds will hold temps in check, so most
locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, but depending on timing
a few spots west of I-65 could stay in the 70s.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016
Upper pattern really flattens out Sat night, so the last of the
widespread/organized precip should exit the region during the
evening. However, there`s not much of a change in the low-level air
mass, so we`ll continue to see warm and humid conditions well into
next week. Will depict a warmer and drier pattern, especially
heading into Mon-Tue, but with such a juicy air mass it won`t take
much to spark diurnal convection, so will continue to advertise 20
POPs by day and dry nights. Temps will be solidly above normal, but
it will be difficult to get enough sunshine to crack the 90 degree
mark in this pattern.
Toward mid-week, another upper trof digs into the Plains and the
pattern amplifies again. The other unknown is whether this pattern
can tap into remnant moisture from the tropical system that`s
progged for the Southeast this weekend. Will see POPs ramp back up
to a solid chance Wed-Thu, and daytime temps will not be quite as
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016
Convective debris mid and high level clouds continue across central
KY at this time with VFR conditions. With rain yesterday and absence
of low clouds, still expect at least some MVFR vsby fog at times
early this morning at BWG and LEX (possibly SDF).
Current radar shows showers over southwest KY. Models suggest some
showers will move and/or develop northeast overnight, so will
include VCSH at SDF after 09z, although conditions should remain VFR.
On Friday, any showers near and north of OH River will lift north-
east leaving dry VFR weather for the 3 TAF sites for much of the
day. Surface winds will be SSW at 10-15 kts. More mid and high level
debris clouds possible Friday night, but should have little overall
effect, as surface winds become S to SE around 5 kts.