000
FXUS63 KLMK 171721
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014

Extensive area of low clouds remains firmly in place across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  There is a little bit of
thinning occurring from near Elizabethtown northeast to near
Frankfort, but in the last half hour, that area has started to fill
back in.  Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue through much of the
afternoon with some decrease in cloudiness late.  This will result
in less solar insolation and lower high temperatures.  Will be
lowering temperatures a bit with this update.  Currently thinking
that upper 30s to lower 40s will be likely.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014

First of all, wintry precip has moved off to the east this morning
so cancelled the Winter Wx Advy.  Continued the Traveler`s Advy
through 9am EDT as untreated snow covered roadways will continue to
remain slick and hazardous.  Also, temps have dropped into the mid
to upper 20s this morning so areas that have wet roadways from rains
yesterday may see slick spots develop this morning because of the
cold temps well below freezing.  Traveler`s should allow extra time
for the Monday morning commute.

Temperatures will rise above freezing between 9-Noon this morning
causing any icy areas to melt.  However, think that low clouds could
be stubborn to move east of the area today so think most locations
should be cloudy this morning with clearing from west to east
expected mostly this afternoon.  High temperatures should range
throughout the 40s with the coldest locations expected in the
Bluegrass where they received light snow yesterday and will see
thick cloud cover through at least early afternoon.

Tonight the forecast gets a little tricky with respect to low clouds
and/or fog production.  Both 0Z NAM/GFS indicate low level moisture
will stick around but it is unclear as to whether that will be in
the form of fog, low stratus, or a combo of both.  For now increased
low clouds for tonight and left a fog mention out in coordination
with surrounding offices.  A light easterly wind tonight would
probably provide a slight downslope component working against fog
production, but that forecast will need to be fine tuned today.  Low
temps tonight should reach the upper 20s to mid 30s.

For Tuesday, expect a rebound in temperatures as southerly winds
pick up throughout the day.  By Tues afternoon, winds could be a bit
breezy with gusts up to 20-25 mph.  Highs should reach the lower 60s
almost everywhere under partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014

The long term will feature warmer temperatures with a couple of cold
fronts moving through and bringing the chance fore precipitation.
The first front will be approaching Tuesday night and move through
on Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will accompany this front,
mainly late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A fairly tight
pressure gradient will set up as the low moves northeast of the
area. This will lead to gusty winds Tuesday night through Wednesday
as this system moves through. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph look
possible. With the area in the warm sector on Tuesday night, temps
will only fall into the mid to upper 40s.

High pressure will build in Wednesday night and shift east through
Friday. The next front will approach Friday night and move through
the area on Saturday morning. This front looks to have more moisture
associated with it than Wednesday`s so there will be a better chance
for showers. There is also a bit of elevated instability, so a few
thunderstorms will be possible with these showers.

Ahead of Saturday`s cold front temperatures will be the warmest of
the week on Friday. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower
70s. Otherwise this week, highs will generally be in the 50s to
lower 60s. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2014

Recent visible satellite imagery shows an expansive area of low
stratus across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.  The clouds
are mixing out along a corridor between KBWG and KFFT.  Expect this
mixing to continue and expand in size through the afternoon hours.
The clearing will likely affect the KSDF and KBWG terminals starting
around 17/20Z.  Should also see some improvement in ceilings over at
KLEX...though it may be a little later as satellite data show
stratus trying to build back northwestward a bit.  Surface winds
will remain out of the northeast this afternoon with speeds of
5-8kts.

Main forecast challenge tonight will be the development of low
clouds and potential fog.  Latest statistical guidance suggests at
least to some MVFR visibilities at all the terminals with higher
risks of IFR visibilities at KLEX and KBWG.  For now, have trended
the forecast a bit more pessimistic at KBWG and KLEX with high end
IFR visibilities between 18/08-14Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ