470
FXUS63 KLMK 130526
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
126 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and humid with continued chances of showers and storms
  through Sunday. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall and lightning will be
  the main impacts but some storms could produce small hail and
  gusty damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible.

* Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more
  scattered rain and storm chances each day with heavy rain, gusty
  winds and lightning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Earlier convective line has pushed into eastern Kentucky, but left
behind an east-west oriented outflow boundary roughly along the
Cumberland Parkway. Will maintain chance POPs for scattered storms
overnight roughly along and south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways. Storm intensity has diminished so the severe
threat has ended for the night.

Issued at 510 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Broken convective line is quickly working eastward across the CWA
between 30-40mph. So far these storms have stayed sub-severe with
gusts approaching 50 mph. As these storms work towards the
Louisville Metro and north central KY they will encounter an
environment with 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE, DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg and
with PWAT values around 1.70". The cold pool is quickly moving out
ahead of this line and is also producing some gusty winds out ahead
of the main line. As this line moves into this better environment,
we could see these storms get stronger and produce severe wind gusts
as it reaches the Louisville Metro and east of I-65. The main threat
remains strong, potentially severe wind gusts of over 60 mph, heavy
torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning. Give how fast these
storms are moving, flooding is not a concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A broken line of convection is coming together across southwestern
IN into western KY this afternoon with a few isolated showers and
storms off to the east over the Bluegrass. Current meso analysis
over the CWA has SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg, DCAPE of 1000-1400 J/kg,
PWAT values around 1.70". As this broken line of convection moves
into the CWA, the main threat remains strong damaging wind gusts of
60 mph, heavy rainfall and lightning. The northern portion along the
Ohio River into southern IN remains in the Slight Risk or 2 out of 5
for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Most of this activity
is associated with a pre-frontal, shortwave trough working across
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, most of the severe threat and
shower and storm potential starts to diminish with the loss of
daytime heating. Some of these storms could quickly weaken as they
move east of I-65 towards the Blue Grass and the I-75 corridor later
this evening. Other than the showers and storms, it will be muggy
and warm overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s with a few
locations staying in the mid 70s.

Tomorrow a second weak shortwave trough will swing through the Ohio
Valley as the sfc front currently stretching from the Upper Midwest
back into the central plains will be draped along the Ohio River to
start the day. The boundary slowly works into the CWA during the day
and the stalls out across the area. We will continue to have chance
of widely scattered showers and storms, especially towards the
afternoon. As we have seen the past few days, the main threat with
any storms will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall and lightning. The
threat of severe is very low for tomorrow. Highs will once again be
very warm and muggy with high in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

By Monday the upper trough will push to the east as the sfc boundary
stalls out over the southern and eastern portions of our CWA. This
will continue to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms for the
afternoon.

The SE CONUS upper ridge tries to build in for the mid week time
frame, however a weak disturbance looks to ride the NW periphery of
that feature, and could bring additional showers and storms to our
area for Tuesday and Wednesday. From there, mainly diurnally driven
shower and storm chances are likely to continue into late week as
our region remains positioned on the northern fringes of the SE
CONUS ridge, and on the southern fringes of the stronger westerlies
associated with a zonal flow aloft pattern. This will keep us in
line for any weak triggering mechanisms embedded in the flow, and on
the edge of the upper ridge where the subsidence inversion is
weaker. All of this supports at least some diurnally driven shower
and storm chances each afternoon and evening. Temps will likely be
slightly above normal for this time of year with highs peaking in
the upper 80s and low 90s. Any early convection each day could knock
temps down, but will likely reach low 90s by early afternoon with
scattered PM storms providing some spotty relief from temps at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A few showers will still be around early this morning, but expect
the terminals to stay dry once this valid period begins. Will
continue to monitor if a stray shower is expected to impact a
terminal.

Otherwise, the main focus this morning will be for some MVFR
ceilings at HNB/SDF/LEX from around sunrise through around late
morning as a cool front drops toward our area.

Those ceilings should clear by midday or so, and expect VFR
thereafter. There may end up being another round of showers and
storms later this afternoon and evening, however confidence is low
at this point so will lean on a dry forecast for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAS/BTN
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BJS