Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 270721
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
321 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.Short Term (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
In the near term, mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region
this morning. Area radars showed some light returns moving through
the region. Early morning temperatures were in the 60s across the
region. For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect mostly
cloudy skies to continue with some light rain showers moving
eastward across the region. The best chances for precipitation look
to be across the southern sections of our area...mainly south of the
BG and WK Parkways. Temperatures are expected to remain in the
For today, surface frontal boundary out to the west will push
through the region later this morning. Moisture within the column
will continue to diminish, so only some light showers are expected
to accompany the front as it moves through. Temperatures ahead of
the front may spike into the upper 60s to around 70, but we expect
temperatures to fall through the afternoon. By evening temperatures
will likely be in the mid-upper 50s in the north with upper 50s to
the lower 60s in the south.
Clouds will push eastward late tonight and early Friday allowing
temperatures to fall off nicely late tonight. Lows will likely cool
into the upper 30s in the rural and valley areas with mainly lower
40s elsewhere. Some fog is likely to develop late tonight and early
Friday morning as well. This fog could be locally dense in the
typical fog prone locations. High pressure will then rebuild into
the region for Friday resulting in a mostly sunny day. Temperatures
look to rebound into the upper 60s to the lower 70s in the north
with lower to middle 70s across the south.
.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
...Warm and Dry Pattern Expected to Continue with Near Record Highs
A rather large upper level ridge axis is expected to develop across
the southern US during the period. This feature will be in place
from West Texas through the southeastern US. The band of westerlies
will remain just off to our north allowing numerous weather systems
to transverse the northern US through the period. A few weak fronts
may affect the region through the period. However, moisture will be
rather scant and it looks rather difficult to get any appreciable
rainfall from these features.
The main forecast story through the period will be the above normal
temperatures. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will see
temperatures warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight
lows in the middle 50s. The above normal temperatures will continue
into early next week with highs remaining in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. If this is the case, record high temperatures could be
in jeopardy Monday/Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Overnight lows
will remain relatively mid with readings in the 50s.
A look ahead shows unsettled weather returning to the region around
Thursday with a weather system moving in from the west. Anticipated
cloudiness and showers will likely keep temperatures down a bit more
by then with normal to below normal readings as we head into next
.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
A weak cold front will pass through the region today, bringing a
period of MVFR ceilings, and a few light showers. Currently,
conditions are VFR, however will see gradually lowering ceilings
through the early morning hours. As we near dawn, ceilings will be
just above the MVFR/VFR threshold with a few showers at BWG/SDF.
Will mention VCSH. Best chance for MVFR ceilings at SDF arrives
shortly after sunrise and will mention prevailing above fuel-
alternate. A few instances of ceilings below fuel alternate are
possible through midday so will also include a TEMPO. Conditions
improve by mid afternoon, with a light NW wind taking hold behind
the cold front.
Further south at BWG, confidence is a bit lower in MVFR ceilings so
will take things right to the MVFR/VFR threshold around midday into
the mid afternoon.
LEX is expected to stat VFR until late morning when MVFR ceilings
are expected, along with a brief period below fuel-alternate. A few
showers are also possible during this time. Light NW winds and VFR
take over late afternoon behind the cold front.