Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 281922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
322 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A shortwave rounding the western edge of the ridge to our east is
helping kick off convection this afternoon in a moderately unstable
environment.  Expect isld-scattered storms to continue to develop
over the area late this afternoon and lasting through the evening
hours before diminishing.  The main threats with these storms will
be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall.  A few storms have the
potential to become severe with wind gusts over 50 mph.  Also, with
very slow storm motions and very heavy rainfall, minor flooding
issues may be a concern this evening.

For tonight, expect dry conditions by late evening and through the
overnight hours.  Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower 70s

Monday will be another hot, muggy day with 20-30% chances of
showers/storms during the afternoon/early evening hrs.  At this
point, the short range models don`t show a clear trigger for storms.
Think that left over boundaries from tonight`s convection may be a
determining factor for tomorrow`s. Soundings are again favorable for
pulse type storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.  High temps
will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices nearing 100
degrees during the late afternoon hours.  Monday night lows will
range from the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Tuesday - Wednesday...

A few more hot days ahead Tue/Wed before a front comes through late
Wed.  Tue looks mainly dry with no real trigger in the area to spark
storms and a decent cap aloft. However, Wed afternoon we could see a
few storms during the afternoon/evening hours as we get some forcing
as the cold front approaches from the NNW.  The exact timing of the
fropa will determine how far south we see storms push into our
region before we lose instability into the evening hours and
convection diminishes.  Will focus the best convection chances over
southern Indiana for now and adjust in coming days as the forecast
becomes a bit more clear.

Thursday - Sunday...

A much more pleasant airmass will arrive behind the front for the
rest of the work week.  Highs will drop back into the upper 70s to
mid 80s for Thu/Fri/Sat with lower humidities.  The airmass will be
more stable as well in the upper trough resulting in dry days.

By Sunday, however, we`ll start to see a warm-up as an upper ridge
begins to work back into the region from the west.  Highs will be
back into the mid to upper 80s with dewpts creeping back toward 70
Sun afternoon.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Most immediate TAF concern will be the development of isld-sct
convection over the region this afternoon.  Based on mesoanalysis
and high-res models, all TAF sites could see at least VCTS this
afternoon/early evening.  Will need to update the TAF with more
definite timing and reduced flight conditions as convection forms.

Tonight all TAF sites could see light br especially if they receive
a shower/storm this afternoon.  Will continue the 2-4 hr window of
MVFR conditions during the pre-dawn hours and perhaps adjust
downward if necessary based on convection and evening model guidance.

Winds will generally remain ENE below 7 kts.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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