082
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1256 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms each day
  through Tuesday.

* Less humid conditions arrive next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Let the Heat Advisory expire on schedule this evening. Convection,
or convective debris clouds, have helped to suppress the heat
from the mid-afternoon until now, though it remains quite humid.

As we approach sunset, the convection has also faded. We do have a
couple cells going up now on an outflow boundary, drifting toward
southern Dubois County IN. Certainly cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm late this evening. Otherwise, we just have some light
stratiform rain drifting north from south-central KY in the wake of
earlier robust convection. The overnight hours look quiet - mainly
dry, warm, and humid.


Issued at 606 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Clusters of storms continue across central Kentucky early this
evening.  Main cluster of storms remains across our southwest CWA
where a northward moving outflow boundary has helped kick off an
area of strong to severe storms with torrential rainfall.  Current
mesoanalysis suggests that we have about 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
but wind shear remains remarkably weak.  However, strong buoyancy is
allowing updrafts to surge up and collapse producing isolated wind
damage in spots.  Overall pulse type storms will continue for the
next 2-2.5 hours mainly in the I-65 corridor.  Numerous outflow
boundaries may kick off additional areas of convection, though much
of central KY has been convectively overturned this afternoon.

The other issue with the lack of shear is the the lack of strong
environmental flow.  Storms that have developed are moving slow and
the combination of warm cloud depths, and PWAT values up in the 1.9-
2.1 inches will allow these thunderstorms to produce torrential
rainfall with isolated flash flooding.  Rainfall amounts under these
storms will be in the 2-2.5 inch range, though some isolated amounts
of 3-4 inches will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

High pressure ridging that has dominated our hot weather this past
week is weakening and getting pushed east by troughing coming over
the Midwest. A surface front will approach but wash out north of the
area this weekend. That will bring more widespread coverage of
rainfall Saturday. Again, not talking about all day rainfall, but it
will be active and the number of storms we expect should keep
temperatures from climbing as much as this week. That same coverage
should help limit severe potential as well, but with above-normal
precipitable waters we will have to watch for localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Rain chances stay up Sunday as we don`t get a true frontal passage
Saturday. The moist airmass will remain in place Sat. night through
at least Monday night. NBM even goes with categorical pops (80-100
percent) for Monday. Again, given the moist airmass in place, we
will have to watch for areas that receive multiple storms. Current
WPC outlook shows a marginal risk for flooding, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see an upgrade to slight risk there are we narrow down
the forecast over the weekend.

Tuesday we should get a frontal passage to give us a couple of dry
days for midweek. Another trough looks to pass by Thu/Fri time, but
it won`t have as much moisture to work with, so NBM has slight
chance pops for now on Friday. Temperatures should stay more
seasonable for highs this period, though lows early in the week
will be above normal with the moisture in the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Convection diminished quickly around sunset, so expect the balance
of the overnight to remain rain-free. Only overnight concern is fog
potential at BWG given the generous afternoon rainfall. However, the
model guidance is not hitting fog and at this point, expect winds to
stay up around 4-5 kt from the south, limiting fog potential.

By late morning we will see the typical veering to SW winds as we
mix deeper, but speeds remain less than 10 kt. Diurnal Cu field will
likely be more extensive than recent days, and we could see a mid-
level cig develop. Will again handle convection with a PROB30 in the
mid to late afternoon hours, with mention of IFR vis in
thunderstorms. Cigs will remain just barely above 3K feet.

Light south winds and mid/high-level debris clouds Sat evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ/EBW
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RAS