Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180449

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1249 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...Near Record Warmth Continues Through Tuesday...

The main weather story through the short term continues to be the
near record warm temperatures. SDF should set a record warm minimum
today as the low this morning was 69. The record is 67 set in 1881.
In addition, SDF is close to the record high with a temperature of
86 as of 2:45 PM. Strong southerly winds will continue overnight,
which should keep temperatures up in the 60s. Record warm minimums
are in play again tonight, especially at SDF.

The hot temperatures continue into tomorrow as the southerly winds
continue ahead of a cold front approaching the region. There may be
some limit on heating along and north of the Ohio River as cloud
cover looks to be higher in this region ahead of the approaching
front. Some models do try to develop a few showers as well, but
given how dry we are, have opted to go with a dry forecast for now.
However, depending on how much cloud cover there is, it could hold
highs below 90. Winds will be breezy again tomorrow with gusts of 20-
25 mph possible.

The cold front will continue to approach the area Tuesday night.
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday night , mainly along and north of the I-64

      MAX (10/17)     WARM MIN (10/18)    MAX (10/18)
SDF   87 (1965)       66 (2007)           86 (1910)
LEX   87 (1938)       66 (2007)           87 (1938)
BWG   90 (1917)       66 (1905)           88 (1963)
FFT   88 (1938)       65 (2007)           88 (1938)

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The cold front approaching the region Tuesday night will stall out
near the Ohio River Wednesday. Weak convergence along this boundary
will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms along and north of the
Ohio River Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures during this
time frame will remain above normal.

The better chance for rain will come Thursday into Thursday night as
a stronger trough approaches from the west and another disturbance
rides northeast along the boundary. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely during this time frame. Most of the area should receive some
beneficial rainfall with forecast rainfall amounts in the .5-.75"
range. The models are not in great agreement with how fast this rain
will move out, but everyone should be dry by Friday afternoon.

Much cooler air will sweep in behind the front. Highs look to top
out only in the low 60s on Friday with lows Friday night in the low
to mid 40s. The weekend then looks to be mainly dry as high pressure
builds in. Temperatures will warm back into the mid to upper 60s for
highs by Sunday.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Plan on VFR conditions through the forecast period with the main
concern being low level wind shear early this morning. A 40 to 45
kt jet between 1500 and 2500 feet AGL will set up over central
Kentucky. Will continue to forecast marginal LLWS conditions
consisting mainly of speed shear.

Once boundary layer mixes out this morning and ends LLWS threat,
gusty southwest flow will bring sustained winds 14 to 18 kts with
late morning to early afternoon gusts around 25 kts. These gusts
will subside shortly after sunset. Plan on mid/high level clouds
over the area throughout the period.




Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
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