Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 192028
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

Afternoon satellite imagery and observations reveal mostly sunny
skies across southern Indiana and central Kentucky.  Strong
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front has really
pushed temperatures up across the region.  Readings have warmed into
the lower 50s across far southern KY, with middle to upper 40s
across southern Indiana and much of north-central and east-central
Kentucky.  The coolest readings are across our far northern areas
where the deeper snowpack resides.  However, the sun and the
southerly winds have really taken its toll on the southern edge of
the snow pack today.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect mostly sunny conditions
to continue.  A cold front off our northwest will continue to push
southeast.  This front is just west of the IN/IL border and is
expected to pass through the region late this afternoon and early
this evening.  Afternoon highs will probably be reached in the next
hour or so. It will continue to be quite breezy with southwest winds
of 15-20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH will be possible for the next
several hours.

For tonight, surface cold front will continue to push on off to th
east and southeast.  The pressure gradient is expected to relax
during the evening hours, thus we should see wind speeds coming down
after sunset.  The latest models still suggest that low-level
moisture will push into the region behind the front.  This seems
decent given the amount of low-level cloudiness upstream across
MO/IL/IA.  The NCEP models continue to show a little bit of QPF
being squeezed out behind the front in the form of light snow
showers and flurries.  The moisture profile is not all that deep and
not really extending up into the ice-crystal generation layer.
Thus, expect any snow showers to be generally light.  The best
chances of snow showers will be across southern/southeast Indiana
and the Bluegrass region of central Kentucky.  Not much in the way
of accumulation is expected, but a dusting to a light coating may be
possible.  Temperatures this evening will start off in the 30s/40s
but cool into the upper teens in the north to the lower-mid 20s down
across the south.

For Thursday/Thursday night, a northwesterly flow aloft along with
surface high pressure building in from the Midwest will keep our
area dry.  Surge of cold air (not as cold as we`ve just seen) will
push into the region.  Highs will be well below seasonal normals
with highs in the lower 30s in the north with mid-upper 30s across
the south.  Lows Thursday night will cool back into the teens in
north with lower 20s across the southern areas.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

The extended forecast begins with high pressure across the forecast
area, leading to another night and day on Friday of well below
normal temperatures. As the high pressure moves off to the east
Friday and Friday night, weak southerly flow returns to the area.
Expect increasing cloudiness and precipitation chances starting
Friday night as warm air advection starts to increase over the
region. Early on Saturday morning through about mid-morning, there
is a chance for light freezing rain across some of the northern
counties before changing over to rain in the late morning and
afternoon.

The best lift doesn`t look to arrive over the area until Sunday as
an upper trough ejects from the southern plains and takes on a
negative tilt...deepening the surface low as it lifts from the
Arklatex region toward the Midwest states. Thus, our highest pops
across the forecast area are Sunday and Sunday night. Temps will
steadily increase during the weekend...topping out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2014

A tight pressure gradient will remain across the region this
afternoon.  This will produce breezy conditions with southwesterly
winds of 13-18kts and gusts up to 30 kts at times.  A cold front
will push through the region late this afternoon and evening.  This
will result in winds shift to the west this evening and overnight
with speeds coming down as the gradient relaxes.  Post frontal low
clouds are likely to impact KSDF and KLEX.  Ceilings look to stay
VFR at KSDF but will likely dip to MVFR over at KLEX.  In the post
frontal airmass, we could see some snow flurries...especially at
KLEX, but the precipitation looks to remain quite light, and
relatively scattered.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MRD
Aviation..........MJ




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