Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 221949
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
249 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015
Surface high pressure will dominate the short term period with
chilly air in place for the beginning of the work week courtesy of a
sharp upper level trough over the Midwest. We`ll remain dry in the
short term period with only a few mid and upper level clouds to
speak of. With good rad cooling for much of the night, temps should
fall into the low to mid 20s for lows with the usual cold spots
dipping into the upper teens for lows. With a little bit of a wind
(5-10 mph) in place tonight, we`ll see wind chills dip into the
teens for the latter portion of the night.
Monday will be a mostly sunny day with temps beginning a warming
trend as the upper trough departs our region. Expect Mon highs to
reach the mid 40s to around 50. Monday night low temps will be
noticeably warmer in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015
Tuesday - Wednesday...
Heights will gradually build across the eastern U.S. during the mid
week time frame as a deep upper low drops into the U.S. southwest.
This will result in a warming trend for us throughout the week.
Tues/Wed will remain dry under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies.
We`ll see high temps in the low to mid 50s by Tues and then mid 50s
to low 60s by Wed.
Thursday - Sunday...
We`ll enter another wet pattern late in the day on Thurs as a slow
moving cold front enters the Midwest bringing multiple rounds of
rain to the Ohio Valley Thurs night through early next week. At
this point, the best time to see steady light to moderate rainfall
looks to be Fri/Fri night. Long range models vary on exactly how
much rainfall will result, but a good 0.5-1 inch isn`t out of the
question Fri/Fri night.
The upper low will finally eject eastward across the Plains by early
next week potentially trailing the first front closely. This would
mean only a brief break in the rain sometime on Sat/Sat night before
the moisture supply is again enhanced by the approaching upper low
and sfc low pressure moving NE out the southern U.S. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to remain on the warm side of all of these
weather systems resulting in a cold rain for much of the time. Total
rainfall amounts from Thurs night through Sun look to total between
0.75 to 1.5 inches.
Temps will be on a roller coaster ride through the long term period.
They will continue their upward climb Thurs/Fri with highs well into
the 60s both days. After the first front passes, temps will take a
dive back into the upper 40s/lower 50s for highs both Sat/Sun. Night
time lows should stay around or just above freezing in the colder
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 PM EST Sun Nov 22 2015
After KLEX mixes out the MVFR stratus deck currently in place, all
sites will go VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. This
deck should clear KLEX within the next couple of hours. Winds will
be out of the NNW this afternoon before becoming light and variable
tonight. Winds will pick up out of the SSW tomorrow at around 10
knots with higher gusts. A few mid-level clouds may pass mainly
over KLEX and KSDF.