000
FXUS63 KLMK 160147
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Most of the clouds have dissipated this evening and high pressure
has moved into the lower Ohio Valley this evening. Temperatures have
already dropped into the mid to upper 30s in many locations. Made
just some minor adjustments to the temperatures tonight. The coldest
temperatures look to be across portions of the Bluegrass tonight
where lows will be in the mid 20s. Record lows are not out of the
question tonight, with best shot for this possibly at Bowling Green.
The forecast and records are below.

                Forecast  Record/Year
Bowling Green      27       27/1928
Louisville         30       27/1875
Lexington          26       20/1875
Frankfort          26       25/1962

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

A hard freeze is expected tonight. A surface ridge now located along
the lower Missouri Valley will migrate east and will lie right over
the Commonwealth shortly after midnight. Skies will begin to clear
from west to east by late afternoon and will become almost
completely clear towards midnight.

Nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow lows to
fall into the mid 20s across many rural locations early tomorrow. In
more urbanized areas, expect lows in the upper 20s. Freezing
temperatures will linger well past dawn Wednesday.

The center of high pressure will move over New England Wednesday
afternoon, with an axis extending southwest over the Tennessee
Valley. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday through early Thursday,
with light southeasterly winds. Wednesday will stay cool, with highs
only ranging from the mid to upper 50s. Lows Wednesday night will
fall well down into the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

Thursday will be characterized by ridging over the southeast CONUS,
and developing low-level return flow as surface high pressure
retreats farther into New England. After a chilly (perhaps even
frosty) start, temps will recover to near seasonal normals.

Both northern and southern stream disturbances will move into the
eastern CONUS on Friday, but never quite seem to phase. ECMWF comes
closer to phasing the two streams than the GFS, but both point to
the distinct possibility that the Ohio Valley will be gapped by the
precip. Still looks like just enough forcing to squeeze out
scattered convection, but will limit the mention of thunder to a
slight chance and the QPF looks meager. Currently holding on to
slight chance POPs into Friday night, but with the models trending
toward a split between the northern and southern stream systems,
could easily end up dry.

Shortwave upper ridging will keep us dry over the weekend. Saturday
will be on the cool side with N-NE low-level flow, but rising
heights will put Sunday back above normal.

A progressive southern stream system will bring the next round of
precip to the Ohio Valley around Monday, but confidence in the exact
timing is limited. Rain is a pretty good bet somewhere between
Sunday night and Monday night, but timing is too uncertain to put
more than a chance POP in any given time period. Temps will trend
back on the high side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014

High pressure will continue to build across the region overnight.
Clouds will quickly dissipate this evening and winds will become
light and variable to calm. As the high shifts east tomorrow the
wind direction will shift to east-southeasterly and will increase to
8-10 knots. Expect just some cirrus streaming across the region
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FREEZE WARNING until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Wednesday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER