Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 191705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
105 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Surface cold front currently is bisecting the area.  The front has
already passed through Louisville and Fort Knox and appears to be
along a line from just west of Lexington southwestward to near
Bowling Green.  The boundary will continue to move east-
southeastward over the next several hours.  Convection has been much
less intense that previous model data suggested.  Area radars
continue to show scattered rain showers out over near the I-75
corridor.  These should continue to move to the east and largely
vacate the district after sunrise.  Given the less intense nature of
convection and rather progressive movement of the showers, we plan
on dropping the Flash Flood Watch shortly.

For today, surface cold front will continue to move on off to the
east.  Some isolated-scattered showers may persist across our far
southeastern sections after sunrise and perhaps until the mid-
morning hours.  Drier air will push in from the northwest throughout
the day and we expect partly to mostly sunny skies by the afternoon.
Highs today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in most

As we head into tonight, skies are expected to be mostly clear with
lows dropping into the upper 50s to around 60.  Combination of light
winds, clear skies, and wet ground in some areas may lead to patchy
dense fog late tonight and early Tuesday morning.  Tranquil and dry
weather is expected for Tuesday.  After morning patchy fog mixes
out, sunny skies are expected with highs warming into the lower 80s.

.Long Term...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night...

The upper pattern will be characterized by progressive zonal flow
over the northern CONUS, while a nearly stationary closed low sits
over the Gulf of Mexico. The Ohio River Valley will sit between
these two features. This will result in a dry mid week stretch with
lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s.


By Thursday, shallow amplitude troughing begins to sink across the
central and northern Plains enough that the low over the Gulf will
be carried northward as an open wave. Most of Thursday should be
dry, but some showers and storms could creep into our south by
Thursday afternoon as the deeper moisture arrives. Ahead of any
shower chances, temps should rise to the mid and upper 80s.

Thursday Night - Sunday...

Latest model data continues to suggest that the end of the week and
weekend time frame could be quite wet. Low amplitude troughing will
continue across the northern third of the CONUS, with a series of
shortwaves traveling through. Meanwhile, deep Gulf of Mexico
moisture will continue to be transported into our region ahead of
the troughing and on the western side of a SE CONUS ridge. Each
disturbance in the northern stream will also carry some degree of
Pacific moisture. The resulting airmass PWATs will be quite high in
conjunction with a deep warm cloud layer, and would result in
efficient rainfall processes. Should the current data hold a heavy
rainfall threat could persist, at times, through the entire weekend.

There are still uncertainties in the overall pattern amplitude and
timing of each individual wave, so it is not a certainty that the
heavy rain will set up and persist the entire weekend. Will let the
details work themselves out of over the coming days.

Temperatures should range well into the 80s Friday and Saturday,
with slightly cooler temps in the lower 80s by Sunday. Lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 on Thursday and Friday nights will give way to
lows in the mid 60s by Saturday night.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Surface cold front now has pushed through central Kentucky with
drier westerly flow in its wake. A scattered to broken 4-6 kft cu
field will continue through sunset across all TAF sites while
westerly winds occasionally gust to near 20 kts this afternoon.
Clear and lighter winds are expected tonight, which combined with
wetter ground, may lead to patchy fog at BWG and LEX. Drier air this
afternoon will likely lessen the chances but nonetheless there could
be some patchy fog around. Dry and VFR conditions for Tuesday with
more fair weather cu likely in the afternoon.




Short Term...MJ
Long Term....BJS
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