286
FXUS63 KLMK 081057
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
  brief torrential rainfall this afternoon and evening.

* Warm and humid all week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
  expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Radar image continues to show a few isolated showers across central
KY here in the early morning hours. Very patchy fog is possible as a
few isolated observation sites have seen visibility drop to near 1
mile. Current satellite imagery shows high clouds over central KY
which will help keep the threat of fog low.

Quasi-stationary boundary will remain north of the Ohio River today
into tonight. This will continue to keep us in the warm sector which
will mean another warm and muggy day. Temperatures are expected to
climb into the mid/upper 80s with dew points in the upper 60s/low
70s. Another day of pop-up showers and storms, mainly in the
afternoon. Coverage is once again expected to be scattered with the
highest chance of precipitation along and south of the parkways.
Torrential rain, thanks to PWAT values around 1.50" will be
possible, along with lightning and possible strong gusty winds.

Showers and storms will start to taper off as we lose daytime
heating after sunset. While a few showers/storms could linger it
will be mostly dry with increasing high clouds. Given the cloud
cover I think the fog threat looks very low.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The pattern will continue to feature a general ridging to the west
and troughiness across the eastern third of the CONUS. The quasi-
stationary boundary will meander mainly north of the Ohio River with
daily chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Given the
placement of the boundary to our north, this will keep us in the
very warm and muggy airmass featuring highs in the upper 80s to low
90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s. Coverage of any
convection each afternoon looks to be scattered in nature with
activity diminishing after sunset. The severe threat from any of
these storms remains relatively low given the lack of shear
preventing much organization. With PWATs remaining high the main
threat from these showers and storms will be localized heavy
rainfall, lightning and possible strong wind gusts.

By the weekend, we`ll be located between two upper level features,
an amplifying ridge over the southeastern US, and a strong upper low
over the Dakotas. Additional shower and storms chances are expected
as we will remain in a warm and humid airmass. Precip chances will
peak each afternoon, and diminish for the nighttime hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

An area of low stratus and dense fog developed across parts of
southern IN back west into KY during the early morning hours. The
only TAF site that has been impacted so far has been HNB. The
current thinking is that the other TAF sites will likely remain VFR
this morning then continue through the rest of the forecast period.
The only other area of impact to mention is the chance for scattered
showers and storms later this afternoon. The main focus appears to
be around BWG, so went ahead and put in PROB30. As for the other
sites, probabilities were too low so left them out but a stray
shower or storm can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN