Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 250457
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS THAN LATE
AUGUST. WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS TONIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S. SOME NOTORIOUSLY COOL LOCATIONS COULD EVEN
POTENTIALLY SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S, MAKING FOR QUITE
A PLEASANT DAY. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN LOUISVILLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH INDEX FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN US AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY) WITH A CORRESPONDING UPPER
RIDGE MAINTAINING ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN US.  AT THE SURFACE A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW-
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY.
VERY SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BY FRIDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST AND
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL START TO BUILD SLIGHTLY.  A DECENT RETURN
FLOW EVENT LOOKS TO SET UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD SUFFICIENT TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE REGION, STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST STANDARDS.

AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A BIT
MORE FORECAST CONVERGENCE HERE WITH A MID-LATITUDE WAVE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT AS THE
RETURN FLOW WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH TIME TO HAVE A SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RECOVERY.  GIVEN THE APPROACHING WAVE AND EXPECTED DIURNAL
HEATING, SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION CERTAINLY LOOKS IN THE CARDS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED TO OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AT THIS TIME.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON KEEPING THE 20
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A
LITTLE BIT MORE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 80S.  SUNDAY MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUDY AS THE WAVE SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.  DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL NOT IN THE CARDS HERE,
BUT ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE WEATHER MAY REMAIN A BIT UNSETTLED EVEN INTO MONDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  A RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF MAY RESULT IN
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE LOWER-MID OHIO VALLEY KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPS WARM AS WELL WITH MID 80S
IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND REACHING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL KEEP US VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST BREEZES
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU AT SDF AND LEX.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........EER
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........13



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