Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 280450
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 947 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Sprinkles/light rain has dissipated across the southern portions of
the forecast area and mentionable PoPs are no longer. Cirrus will
continue to stream in overhead from the south and west. River/valley
fog is still anticipated to develop by the pre-dawn hours but an
otherwise benign overnight period can be expected.

Issued 647 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014

A few radar returns are being picked up across southern KY near the
TN border, mostly in Logan County and moving off toward the NW. This
is in the vicinity of a weak boundary across the region along with
some higher dewpoints/more moist air advecting in. These
sprinkles/light rain showers will be very isolated and short-lived.
Any precip this evening is expected to dissipate after sunset. Rest
of the forecast remains on track.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Ridging at the surface and aloft today will begin to break down as
an upper level trough begins to push in from the northwest. A system
will also approach the region from the south, though the bulk of
this system will stay to the south and east of the forecast area.

Scattered to numerous cumulus clouds have developed across the
area this afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the upper 70s to
lower 80s and will rise perhaps a couple of degrees more before
beginning to cool off. For this evening clouds will initially
decrease as the diurnal cu dissipates. However, moisture will be on
the increase from the south as the southern system approaches and
with this clouds will be on the increase as well. Temperatures
overnight will be the warmest across south central KY where clouds
will be moving in first. Similar to previous mornings, some valley
fog will be possible tomorrow morning, though this may be hindered
somewhat by the cloud cover.

For tomorrow the thinking remains similar to the previous forecast.
It still looks like a line of showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop somewhere across central KY along a deformation axis.
Despite increasing moisture, the models continue to depict a mid
level dry layer, so think coverage of measurable precipitation will
be limited. Thus, pops were kept in the 20-30% range over central
Kentucky and lower or dry across southern Indiana. Rain chances look
to diminish tomorrow evening and have kept the forecast dry after
midnight tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s with lows
tomorrow night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2014

We`ll begin the long term period Monday with a weak weather system
departing the Lake Cumberland region.  The trend with this system
has been a farther south track so have decreased POPs to 20% for Mon
and trimmed the area back.  Rain showers should exit early in the
day with clearing skies from NW to SE throughout the day.  As a
result of the cloud cover, we`ll likely see a gradient of high temps
over the area ranging from lower 80s over southern IN/west central
KY to mid-upper 70s over east central KY/portions of south central
KY.

For the middle of the week, a shortwave ridge will keep us dry with
temps slightly above normal for this time of year.  Expect highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s Tues/Wed with nighttime lows in the
50s.  Thursday we should see a warm up with everyone solidly
reaching the low-mid 80s as winds turn to the south ahead of a cold
front approaching the Ohio Valley.  Overall arrival of this front
continues to trend slower so did go dry for Thurs.

Showers and t-storms should arrive with a strong cold front sometime
Thurs night/Fri.  Timing confidence remains low so limited POPs to
40-50%.  However, there is confidence in widespread showers/storms
occurring late in the week with this front.  Will continue to adjust
that forecast time window with model trends.

Cooler air looks to arrive behind the front for next weekend.  We
can expect to see highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF
period.  The only potential for some light BR will be at KLEX and/or
KBWG towards sunrise, but think the increasing cirrus canopy is
going to keep any vsby restrictions to a minimum.  Thus, will
continue with a VFR forecast at all sites.

For today, mid and high clouds will continue to stream over all
sites.  There will likely be some diurnal cu as well, but all cigs
will remain VFR.  Cannot rule out a stray shower at any site today,
but the expected coverage will be too low to warrant any mention at
this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD




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