Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 172327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
627 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 228 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

Weakening high pressure will move from Arkansas to Alabama during
the short term. After the last few flurries dissipate late this
afternoon the clouds should slowly dissipate tonight with skies
mostly clear for Thursday and Thursday night.

Will continue to go on the cool side of temps given the fresh snow
pack in place. Lows tonight will be in the single digits. Took
temperatures cooler still in sheltered valley locations. With a lot
of sunshine tomorrow and a southwest breeze the mercury should rise
to around the freezing mark. We`ll then fall into the mid and upper
teens Thursday night (rather than single digits) as we continue our
slow climb out of the deep freeze.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

The southeast U.S. surface high will move little over the weekend.
Return flow behind the high and zonal heights aloft will result in
warmer temperatures for us.

A few WAA showers will be possible Saturday evening through Sunday
night with some weak isentropic lift taking place. Rain chances will
increase significantly Monday as low pressure over Wisconsin swings
a cold front through the Ohio Valley. Rain will then taper off
Monday night as the system exits. High pressure will then keep us
dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Snow melt will be gradual over the next few days, with the NAEFS
suggesting that most of the snowpack will be gone by/around Sunday
night. Any showery activity late in the weekend will be light and
scattered, and the system coming through on Monday will be a quick-
hitter. Total rainfall amounts for the weekend through Monday should
be around half an inch. Soil temperatures are above freezing right
now, and though they may dip tonight and tomorrow, they will be
above freezing by the time any rains get here. So, a significant
flood event is not anticipated. Looking at NAEFS streamflow progs,
even our most sensitive river gauge locations are expected to remain
well below flood stage.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR TAFs are forecast with high pressure in control of the region. A
few upper level clouds are possible through tomorrow but mostly
clear skies are expected.  Winds will back from west to southwest
tomorrow increasing to 7-10 kts tomorrow afternoon.




Short Term...13
Long Term...13
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