Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 170810
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
310 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warm and sunny Friday is in store for the region with upper level
ridging in place and a strong southerly flow.  Temps should easily
warm into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.  Southwest winds will
be breezy.

Tonight we`ll see an increase in clouds from SW to NE ahead of the
next weather system.  Lows will range through the low to mid 40s
with the coolest locations over southeast IN and the KY Bluegrass.

For Saturday, a quick moving upper low will bringing scattered,
light rain showers to the area.  With clouds and some rain, temps
should be limited to the mid 50s to low 60s for highs.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Near Record Warmth on the Way...

Light rain showers from the Sat system should end Sat evening with
upper level ridging building back into the region for Sunday.  With
skies becoming only partly cloudy early in the day, temps on Sunday
should rebound well into the 60s.  Monday ridging will strengthen
bringing the warmest day in the 7 day forecast.  Highs on Mon should
top out in the upper 60s/lower 70s which is 15-20 degrees above
normal!

Tuesday onward, low chances for precipitation will return.  A weak
frontal boundary over the region will provide a focus for showers
Tue/Wed/Thu before a stronger cold front brings showers and
potentially some t-storms to the region on Fri.

Temperatures will remain mild throughout the week ahead of the
strong cold front progged for Fri.  In fact, it is possible that
some records could be challenged.  Check the climate discussion
below to see record highs and warm lows for this coming week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1201 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. The only
concern will be a low level jet through the overnight period. Winds
around 1300-1800 feet will be in the 38-40 knot range, so will
continue to mention low level wind shear in the forecast. The winds
aloft will relax and surface winds will increase after sunrise.
Winds will become gusty out of the southwest by mid to late morning.
Skies will be mostly clear except for cirrus passing over.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2016

Record temperatures for the next few days

Louisville:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     74 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     76 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     70 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     71 (1992*)

Lexington:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     75 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     72 (2016*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     71 (1874)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     70 (1922)

Bowling Green:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     73 (1994*)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     75 (2014*)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     75 (1930*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     74 (1922)

Frankfort:
Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939)
Sun. Feb. 19 record high:     76 (1939)
Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949)
Mon. Feb. 20 record high:     73 (2016)
Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906)
Tue. Feb. 21 record high:     72 (1997)
Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*)
Wed. Feb. 22 record high:     72 (1922)

* means most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as
  well

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
Aviation...BJS
Climate..RJS



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