Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 132006
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are present across the region this
afternoon. A stratocu deck is streaming down from the north into
southern IN and central KY. Radar returns can be seen across this
region this afternoon under the stratocu deck and scattered flurries
are expected through the afternoon. These should taper off this
evening.

For tonight, high pressure will begin to build in from the
northwest. Skies will become partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight
resulting in good conditions for radiational cooling. For low temps
tonight, went a bit under guidance, especially west of I-65 closer
to the high pressure and where there was more snow yesterday. Lows
will generally be in the single digits across the region with
portions of southern IN falling to near 0F. Luckily there will be
little to no wind, so wind chills will not be much of a factor.

Highs tomorrow will top out in the 20s across the region. Sunday
will start out mostly sunny, but skies will begin to cloud up as the
next system starts to approach the area. For Sunday night a weak
warm front will move north across the region. Isentropic lift will
bring isolated to scattered snow showers Sunday night. Little to no
snow accumulation from this is expected at this time.

&&

.Long Term...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Monday - Tuesday...

...Light Snow Accumulations Expected Monday - Tuesday Morning...

A low pressure system will swing through the Great Lakes region
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front associated with this system will
approach southern IN by Monday afternoon and move through central
Monday evening. A band of precipitation will develop along this
front and swing through the region. Precipitation looks to move into
southern IN by early afternoon Monday and spread into central KY by
late afternoon to early evening, continuing to cross the area slowly
overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. Ahead of this
precipitation, temperatures will rise into the 30s to near 40 on
Monday. Depending on how fast the precipitation moves in, there
could be a very brief mix of rain and snow, but the transition to
all snow should happen quickly, so this does not look like a big
mixed precipitation event. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough
that snow crystals are expected.

QPF looks fairly light with this event, but snow ratios will be high
enough that we could see snowfall totals of half an inch up to
around 2 inches. A few lingering snow showers around the Lake
Cumberland region should move out on Tuesday morning. This front
will bring much colder temperatures back again with highs on Tuesday
topping out mainly in the teens with wind chills in the single
digits.

Tuesday Night - Friday Night...

The bitter cold air will really settle in Tuesday night. Lows will
drop to near zero with wind chills in the single digits below zero.
Wednesday`s highs will be slightly warmer than Tuesday, though only
by a couple of degrees. However, as we head into the end of the work
week, ridging will build in aloft and winds will return to
southerly. This will give us a shot at above freezing temperatures
again by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1210 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

A secondary stratocu deck has begun to develop across the area this
afternoon. Generally ceilings are on the high end of MVFR across
central KY and on the low end of VFR in southern IN. Ceilings will
likely be on and off for the next couple of hours, scattering out
from time to time, but become more established during the mid
afternoon hours. It should then begin to break up this evening.
Winds will be out of the north today around 8-10 knots, becoming
light tonight. As high pressure slides east of the region tomorrow
winds will shift to easterly. Will carry VCSH at HNB for a couple of
hours as some light radar returns are currently showing up in the
area.


&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
Aviation...EER



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