Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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945
FXUS63 KLMK 291740
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
140 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Expect a pleasant and seasonably cool start to the day. Clouds will
increase however as low pressure over northwest Texas begins to
shift into the Central Plains. Flow aloft will shift to
southwesterly by this afternoon, allowing a stream of moisture into
the region. A weak northerly wind with that cloud cover should help
keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday, with highs
generally staying in the mid to upper 70s.

Precipitation with this moisture feed should hold off till late this
evening/overnight. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out with this
precip...especially west of I-65. Widespread coverage of rain should
reach the rest of the region in the morning hours Saturday before
coverage starts to scatter out as the warm front lifts northward. By
late afternoon, expect the front to be north of the Ohio River. Rain
and cloud cover should keep temperatures again in the 70s, though
some of south central KY may see 80 depending on how much we scatter
out.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Low pressure will move out of the Plains and spread out roughly
along the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday. Given its proximity to our
region and the moisture in place, showers and storms still appear
likely. An upper trough crossing the Midwest later in the day Sunday
should provide enough lift for some stronger storms, but there is
still uncertainty in whether previous rains/cloud cover will limit
any potential for severe weather, outside of perhaps some hail.
Given rains over the past couple of days, will continue to watch for
hydro issues this weekend. QPF totals for that time frame continue
to range from 1-2 inches.

Sunday night, the surface trough should make it into the
Appalachians, but another vortmax aloft could make for a few more
light rain showers overnight. Those showers could linger in our
southeast counties Monday, but otherwise the region should be dry.
Next up is a trough forecast to move into the area Tuesday. Forecast
models yesterday at this time had this trough dry, and the trend is
still for that, save for some light chances again in our southeast.

A stronger trough looks to drop down Wednesday and this could bring
a more solid line of showers. GFS/Euro/GEM are in pretty good
agreement with this scenario, and again showed similar results
yesterday. The only limiting factor is available moisture, so will
keep lower-end chance pops for now. For Thursday, the Euro is
showing some upslope precip over eastern KY, so will carry slight
chance pops there.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 139 PM EDT Fri Apr 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into the early overnight
hours.  However, moisture increasing from the southwest will result
in a slow moistening of the column.  A few showers will be possible
as early as this evening (especially at BWG), but shower coverage
will increase towards Saturday morning.  Cigs will lower to at least
MVFR by Saturday morning, with IFR conditions possible at SDF/LEX.
Enough instability and lift exists to include a period of VCTS at
SDF/BWG Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.  Winds will
veer and increase from NNE this afternoon to more of a SSE direction
by late Saturday morning as a warm front lifts north through the
region.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........KJD



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