Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 020509

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
109 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2015

Isolated to widely scattered (20-30% coverage) light rain showers
will continue to diminish through the afternoon/evening as they
struggle to move westward into drier air. Most places will stay dry
or only see a few sprinkles. In fact, a small hole on visible
satellite may persist over Louisville long enough to provide a
pleasant afternoon/evening. Temps have found their way into the
mid/upper 60s under this hole, but remain mostly in the 50s and low
60s elsewhere.

The center of the closed upper low is now over western TN, and will
slowly sink south to the Gulf Coast through the short term period.
Upper deformation axis that currently stretches just east of a
Bowling Green to Louisville line, will slowly slide west as it
pivots around the southward bound upper low. As this occurs, a surge
in deeper moisture will again work in from the southeast, bringing
more widespread rain chances to the area on Friday. Scattered to
numerous rain shower chances will begin across our far SE around
Midnight, slowly spreading NW through the morning and into the
afternoon hours. Expect a drying trend later in the afternoon
through the evening hours, with the relative lull in overall dry
conditions lasting through Friday night.

Temperatures during this time will continue to be influenced by the
steady NE flow at the surface, combined with heavy cloud cover most
of the time. So, will continue to undercut guidance under this
regime. Expecting overnight lows in the low and mid 50s. Areas along
and east of I-65 can expect the 55-60 degree range for highs,
meanwhile west of I-65 should be able to reach the low and mid 60s
before rain arrives. Friday night still expected to be cooler with
lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2015

Well...the initial medium term forecast the eastern 1/2 of the CWA
will still be dealing with the influence of a pesky closed upper
level low...before it pulls out off St Augustine FL on Sunday night
and then ridging commences for most of next week and before a
southern stream system pushes in at the very end of the
deep extended forecast.

The 00z deterministic models and NHC official forecast continue to
keep powerful category Hurricane Joaquin (935mb). This track for a
further out to sea scenario will allow this upper closed low to sag
southward into the Sunshine State and SE Peach State.  In response,
deep wrap around moisture will pull away and will be decreasing POPS
and cloud cover and NW to SE Sunday into Monday. Should be a steep
temperature gradient on Sunday from Srn IN (mix of clouds and sun)
to Lake Cumberland region (pesky stratocumulus clouds).

The upper level pattern becomes increasingly more zonal, will show
highs warming into the upper 70s to low 80s by mid-week, lows in the
55-60 range and a mostly dry forecast. System at the very end of
next week will bring increasing clouds, but dry forecast for now.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2015

Increasing moisture across the region will lead to another round of
showers developing today. These showers will move in from east to
west, affecting LEX first this morning, then BWG by mid morning, and
SDF by mid day or early afternoon. There is more question in
coverage the further west you go, but SDF and BWG should eventually
see some showers. LEX and BWG already have MVFR ceilings and they
are expected to stay in this category through the day. Ceilings at
SDF should lower later today. With a tight pressure gradient over
the area, winds will remain gusty out of the NE. Sustained winds
will be in the 10-15 knot range with frequent gusts to 20 knots.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........ZBT
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