Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 190525
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
125 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Some minor adjustments to the precipitation chances for this
evening. Radar indicates showers and isolated t-storms confined
mainly from the Bowling Green area northward to Hardinsburg. Some
spotty showers also around the Lexington metro. With loss of daytime
heating, this activity will slowly diminish as it drifts east.

Next concern is fog potential overnight. With late afternoon rain
falling across south-central Kentucky and as skies begin to clear
out, feel that patchy dense fog may become a concern overnight.
Increased fog wording in the forecast and will need to monitor this
closely through the evening.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is on track.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Upper level ridging continues to flatten out today and tonight. A
stronger shortwave will approach the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning
and move through during the day. At the surface a weak frontal
boundary will slowly sink southward toward southern IN and north
central KY, then stall out.

For this afternoon, showers and storms have developed across
southwestern IN and western KY. These will continue to move in from
the west this afternoon, but how far east the stronger storms make
it is in question as they are struggling more the further east they
come. The best chance for storms with the heavy rain and numerous
lightning strikes looks to stay west of the I-64 corridor. Further
east coverage will be lower. These showers and should weaken and
dissipate after sunset.

Showers and storms will be on the increase again during the early
morning hours across southern IN as the shortwave approaches. These
will increase from west to east through the morning hours and be
moving out during the late afternoon. Coverage of showers and storms
should be higher tomorrow than today.

Temperatures will remain warm, but highs will be tricky tomorrow and
will depend on showers and cloud cover. Highs should still top out
in the 80s.

.Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

For the latter half of the week and into this weekend, a trough will
deepen across the western CONUS. This will in turn pump up the
ridging over the east, which will remain in place through the
remainder of the long term period.

Diurnal showers and storms still look possible Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon and evening. However, the forecast continues to
trend drier for Friday into the weekend as the ridging builds. Will
keep a mostly dry forecast through this period.

Temperatures will be warm and humid through the long term period.
Highs will be in the 80s through the long term. The hottest days
will be towards the end of the week where some will likely be in the
upper 80s. Lows will be in the 60s. With dewpoints in the mid 60s to
around 70 it will be humid through the week as well.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Patchy to locally dense fog will be possible across at KBWG and KHNB
overnight.  Some fog may also develop over in the KLEX area, but may
not be as extensive as what develops out west.  Current thinking is
that best shots of IFR conditions will be down at KBWG, but it will
likely vary between IFR and MVFR overnight.  Another round of
showers and storms will arrive in the 19/11-13Z time frame and then
push off to the east by mid-late morning.  Winds tonight will be
light and variable and then pick up out of the southwest after
sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

Update.......ZT
Short Term...EER
Long Term....EER
Aviation.....MJ



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