Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 141921
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

High pressure centered to our northeast will bring at least one more
dry day. A weakening frontal boundary, ahead of an upper level
impulse now along the Montana/Canada border, will move into the
region Monday night. This front will have little moisture to work
with, but cannot rule out some light rain showers. Will keep low-end
chances that night. Otherwise temperatures will stay below normal
through Monday. Monday night will be a little warmer ahead of the
front, closer to normal.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a broad trough across the the eastern half of the CONUS.
This trough will remain in place for the majority of the long term
period, keeping rather tranquil conditions in place until possibly
next weekend.

The long term period will start out with a decaying front bisecting
the region from west to east.  Moisture with this front will be
limited (saturation only about 200mb deep), and ascent above it will
be weak given the upper-level forcing will pass well to the north
across IN/OH.  Debated adding in pops for Tuesday morning, but given
the above reasoning, will continue with a dry forecast.  We will
likely see some sprinkles across the region, but prospects for
measurable precip appear low Tuesday morning.

A sprawling ridge of high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley
for the remainder of the workweek, keeping conditions dry and
fall-like.  Temperatures through this period will be in the 70s,
with lows generally in the 50s.  The coolest night will likely be
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, when lows may dip into the
upper 40s across some spots, especially northern KY and southern IN.

The next storm system will approach late in the upcoming weekend.
Out ahead of it, southerly flow will commence on Saturday, making
for a moderation in temperatures.  Highs Saturday will climb into
the low 80s.  Guidance differs quite a bit with the handling of the
next cold front that looks to push through the region.  Given the
disagreement, will limit slight chance pops to mainly southern IN on
Saturday night, with the bulk of the system and associated fropa
likely to affect the region after the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

High pressure will continue to dominate the northeast U.S. this
period, bringing VFR conditions to our terminals. The only hitch may
be some light fog towards daybreak Monday over KBWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RJS




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