Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 200657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
257 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

An early morning analysis showed upper level ridging across much of
the southern US while the fast, zonal flow remained confined to the
northern US. At the surface, high pressure was sprawled across the
lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Locally, readings varied from the
low to upper 60s. IR satellite showed convective debris clouds
spilling across Indiana and northern Kentucky from storms last
evening over Missouri. There were pockets of fog, some dense, across
central and southern Kentucky and was confined mainly to the low-
lying sheltered valley locations.

For today, expect a dry and unseasonably warm day with high
temperatures topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. Plan on
east/northeast winds under 10 mph with mostly sunny skies. Dry
weather will continue tonight with lows falling into the low/mid
60s. Winds should stay up at the surface and aloft enough to prevent
widespread fog though the typical sheltered, river valley locations
may see fog form overnight.

More of the same weather can be expected for Wednesday, dry with
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with generally clear skies.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will be the main
weather highlights through the long term, continuing the dry weather
period for the remainder of the work week and into this upcoming

Daytime highs will more characteristic of July or August normals
with readings topping out in the mid 80s to around 90. The typical
warm spots and urban centers may overachieve and reach the low 90s a
few afternoons. Morning lows will generally be in the 60s each
morning, a bit more muggy by late in the week and this weekend as
PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range.

It`s not until early next week that the forecast models begin to
show hints of a pattern change as a northwest US trough advances
eastward. A cold front may drop toward the region Monday night or
Tuesday, bringing the first chance of measurable rain to the area in
this forecast. This system may be moisture limited so precipitation
chances were kept in the 20-30 percent range though. If that front
clears the region, temperatures may trend toward more climatological
values by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2016

High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to provide VFR
conditions at the TAF sites.  The terminals will likely see some
very high cirrus blow off from a convective cluster across MO
overnight.  Some light flog will be possible down at KBWG and over
at KLEX in the 20/09-13Z time frame.  The outlook for the daylight
hours remains unchanged with a scattered Cu field and northeasterly
surface winds with speeds of less than 8kts.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
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