Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1221 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 850 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Seeing some very light returns on radar upstream, but not seeing any
visibility reductions. Will keep in some patchy drizzle because of
the returns and we may be able to see some brief drops in vsby as RH
values increase. This drizzle should start drying out after midnight
from west to east as drier air pushes in from the west.

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

A slow moving cold front continues to make progress eastward across
the forecast area.  Along and ahead of the front in breaks in the
cloud cover, SW-W winds were gusting up to around 30 mph.  Expect
these gusts to continue until sunset.  All rain looks to be mainly
done over the area except for a few isld showers near the Lake
Cumberland region.

For tonight, plentiful low level moisture should stick around
trapped under a good inversion.  Decent low level lapse rates
depicted combined with the low level moisture will likely result in
some patchy drizzle or maybe even a few isld sprinkles or showers.
Think that mostly a drizzle scenario will play out tonight so went
with that in the forecast. Overnight lows should bottom out in the
upper 30s/lower 40s.

For Wednesday, expect a dry day but with low clouds sticking around
for much of the day.  We may see a brief period of partly sunny
skies late in the day though.  Wed highs should be cooler behind the
front in the upper 40s/lower 50s.  Lows Wed night will range from
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

...Above normal temperatures and frequent rounds of rain during
extended period...

Thursday - Saturday...

A strong upper level shortwave will move north through the region
Thu/Thu night bringing more rounds of rain.  Some instability is
possible with this wave so did continue slight t-storm chances Thu
night into early Fri morning.

The latter part of the day Fri and Sat will feature a dry,
unseasonably warm period of weather.  Highs should reach the 60s
both days with some models hinting at low 70s for Sat.  Despite the
warming temps, clouds will still be plentiful.

Sunday - Tuesday...

Another upper low looks to move through the region early next week
bringing more rounds of rain Sun-Tues.  The best chance for t-storms
looks to be Sun with this particular setup although that may need to
be refined in coming periods.  Mild temps will continue Sun/Mon
with cooler temps by Tues behind this weather system.


.Aviation (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

An expansive stratus deck reaching from the Midwest to New England
and the Mid South will be the primary aviation challenge today.
Ceiling heights should be mostly just above 1000 feet, though some
occasional lowering into IFR is possible around and just after
sunrise. Some drizzle has fallen from these clouds but has been very
light, and is expected to remain that way before ending completely
around dawn.

High pressure moving in from the west today will help to scour out
the clouds as it brings in some drier air. How fast the low clouds
will break up is the big question. Right now it looks like it will
take until early afternoon at BWG and mid/late afternoon at SDF/LEX.




Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
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