Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 181535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1135 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1134 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Overall forecast is on track.  Did update the forecast to add a bit
more cloud cover...especially across the north. This additional
cloud cover may result in slightly lower high temperatures for this
afternoon. For now, still think highs in the 83 to 88 degree range
still look likely. The warmest readings will likely be down along
the KY/TN border where upper 80s and possibly a 90 degree reading
will be found.  Near record highs are still on the table though.
Gusty southwest winds will continue.  An isolated shower or two will
still be possible across our far north/northwest.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Possible Record Warmth Continues Through Wednesday...

Heights will rise slightly today as an upper ridge spreads across
the Southeast. We`ll have strong southwest surface flow across dry
ground (fuel moisture down to around 9%). Temperatures across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky as of this writing are about 5
degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. However, cloud cover will play a
limiting factor in just how warm we get today. Models are picking up
on moisture centered around 850hPa streaming from eastern Kansas to
northern Illinois early this morning. This is supported by 00Z
soundings out of TOP and DVN. That moisture is expected to increase
and move eastward today, manifesting itself in cumulus development
by this afternoon, particularly over southern Indiana. While clouds
in most of Kentucky should remain scattered, clouds over southern
Indiana and the northern fringe of Kentucky will likely cover more
of the sky, especially this afternoon. At this time of year clouds
can have a significant influence on surface temperature, making this
a difficult MaxT forecast. So, while the possibility of a 90 degree
reading in a spot that gets a lot of sun today is still on the
table, the current forecast will go with highs generally in the
middle and upper 80s. Even so, some records will be in jeopardy.

Southwest winds will gust to 20-25mph this afternoon, maybe 30 mph
in sunnier spots.

The main storm track will remain off to our north and northwest
through the short term. However, a weakening cold front will
advance, reaching the Ohio River early Wednesday morning. It will
then stall as it runs into the southeastern U.S. ridge and its
parent surface low is far removed, moving across Quebec. Isolated
showers will move into LMK`s southern Indiana counties after 6 or 7
o`clock this evening, and progress into extreme north central
Kentucky tonight...and deeper still into central Kentucky Wednesday
with a slight uptick in coverage. A few thunderstorms will be
possible as well, especially Wednesday afternoon. The best chance of
any stronger storms should be to our west from the Ozarks to the mid-
Mississippi Valley, closer to more favorable jet structure.

Clouds and showers will keep temperatures down a bit on Wednesday,
making record highs less likely. We`ll still stand a chance to see
some record warm lows, though, especially in places that don`t get
rain. And even without records, the daytime hours will still be much
warmer than normal.

      WARM MIN (10/18)    MAX (10/18)    WARM MIN (10/19)
SDF   66 (2007)           86 (1910)      67 (1985)
LEX   66 (2007)           87 (1938)      65 (1985)
BWG   66 (1905)           88 (1963)      65 (1985)
FFT   65 (2007)           88 (1938)      64 (1905)

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A wave of low pressure moving up the aforementioned surface front
will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region
as it pulls the surface front through the area Wednesday night and
Thursday. The main upper trof axis will cross overhead Thursday
night, bringing an end to most of the rain. A few showers will still
be possible over the Blue Grass on Friday. We could use some rain,
and this system may bring half an inch to central Kentucky with half
to three quarters of an inch to southern Indiana.

High pressure will then move in for the weekend with dry and cool
weather. The next surface front may move in for Monday, but the
signal isn`t strong enough for PoPs yet.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 629 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Plan on gusty southwest winds beginning mid morning and lasting
through the late afternoon hours. Gusts at SDF and LEX could top 25
kts for a few hours.

An advancing cold front will drop into south-central Indiana this
evening and will act as a focus for shower and elevated thunderstorm
development. A broken line of showers/storms is possible right along
the Ohio River near SDF this evening and tonight. Opted to introduce
a VCSH mention late in the TAF period. Otherwise, plan on scattered
to broken mid clouds especially from this afternoon onward.




Short Term.....13
Long Term......13
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