704
FXUS63 KLMK 080134
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
934 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...Forecast Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds and
  brief torrential rainfall this afternoon and evening.

* Warm and humid all week, with scattered showers and thunderstorms
  expected each day. Organized severe weather is not expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Convectively reinforced outflow has pushed through the Bluegrass
region, but has hung up across south central KY. As a result, still
seeing some isolated to widely scattered coverage initiating along
that near surface convergence. This activity should steadily wane
over the next hour or two with the loss of heating.

Farther west, another cluster of storms is working in toward the
Bowling Green region, and steadily weakening with time. This cluster
will likely survive a bit longer given continued chain reaction
process with outflow triggering new updrafts. Have upped
precipitation chances in this region through 1 of 2 AM to cover the
slow decline of this cluster.

Otherwise, the forecast is on track, and the main focus overnight
into the morning hours will be to what degree fog is able to
develop. Do expect some mid and upper sky cover and this hurts
confidence to the extent of fog. Will keep mention in the forecast
and monitor trends for intensity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed this
afternoon within a very warm and humid airmass. Sfc heating has
resulted in temps hitting the upper 80s and lower 90s, combined with
muggy sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This has led to a
marginally unstable environment but steep low level lapse rates
across the region. A weak cold front is noted across southern IL and
IN, with deep moisture out ahead of it that is feeding into the
convection. PWATs range from 1.7 to 2 inches over our area, with the
highest amounts focused over western KY. SPC expanded the Marginal
Risk for this afternoon, likely due to a sharp gradient of DCAPE
value over the I-65 corridor, and 1000+ DCAPE values to the east.
While most storms will remain messy and unorganized, a few stronger
cells could produce localized strong wind gusts, especially as they
work into that DCAPE gradient or eastward. With the high moisture
content, every storm is capable of producing brief torrential
downpours, in addition to lightning.

Precip coverage will diminish with the loss of heating by this
evening, leading to a dry period overnight for most, with only an
isolated chance in the Bluegrass later into the night. Most of the
area should have some clearing of low clouds, though some high level
cirrus may still quietly stream overhead. Winds are expected to be
light, and with lingering low level moisture, some patchy fog may
develop across the area during the predawn hours.

For tomorrow, another warm and muggy day is in store, with the
frontal boundary expected to be hanging out north of the Ohio River.
With daytime heating, expect showers and storms to pop up again by
the late morning or early afternoon. Coverage will be more scattered
in our west, and more isolated to the east. Similar to today, storms
for tomorrow are expected to produce heavy rain, lightning, and
isolated strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

General troughing over the central US, along with a meandering
frontal boundary north of the Ohio River, will lead to multiple days
of scattered shower and storm chances. With the front hung up across
the northern portion of the forecast area, we`ll be stuck with a
very warm and humid airmass, with daily highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s, and daily afternoon dewpoints in the lower 70s. With
diurnal heating, expect precip coverage to blossom each afternoon
when our instability maximizes. Generally, shear is expected to be
weak enough to keep storms mostly unorganized and limit concerns for
severe weather. PWATs will remain elevated to produce heavy
rainfall. With any stronger storms, localized strong wind gusts
could be possible.

By the weekend, we`ll be located between two upper level features,
an amplifying ridge over the southeastern US, and a strong upper low
over the Dakotas. Additional shower and storms chances are expected
as we will remain in a warm and humid airmass. Precip chances will
peak each afternoon, and diminish for the nighttime hours each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The LEX/BWG/RGA sites are still under threat of some showers and
storms lingering in the area this evening. Have handled these with
some PROB30 and prevailing groups for the first few hours this
evening, otherwise look for a dry overnight.

Winds will likely go calm or light and variable overnight with
plenty of mid to upper sky cover expected. This makes the potential
for fog somewhat low confidence, however the signal is there in the
data. As a result, hinting at some vis restrictions toward dawn to
account.

Light winds take hold again tomorrow, with perhaps some Sct-Bkn
clouds close to the VFR/MVFR threshold for the LEX/RGA sites.
Otherwise, look for mainly mid and upper clouds through the
afternoon with the best chance for a shower or storm mainly down
around BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...BJS