Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 021723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
123 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2015

Updated the forecast to increase rain chances to around 90% across
the region. This rain is associated with a plume of deeper moisture
working NW across our area around the parent upper low centered over
southern Alabama. Once onset occurs, intermittent showers should
persist for much of the afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2015

The cutoff upper level low is currently centered over northern
Alabama. This feature will continue to slowly sink south through the
day today and then slowly start to shift eastward on Saturday. This
will place the forecast area on the northern edge of this feature.
At the surface we will be in between low pressure to the south and
high pressure to the north with a fairly tight pressure gradient
across the region.

Moisture will begin to stream back in from the east today with rain
chances increasing into the afternoon hours. A couple of
disturbances rotating around the upper low from east to west will
potentially bring multiple rounds of showers. The first will be this
morning. Some very light showers across the northern Bluegrass this
afternoon will spread westward through the morning. Then it looks
like another round of showers will push in from the east this
afternoon with a bit better coverage expected. The highest pops
today will be east of I-65. West of this line coverage should be
more scattered. Temperatures today will be on the cool side topping
out in the upper 50s to the east and the low 60s to the west where
rain will hold off the longest.

Rain showers will continue into the evening hours. There could be a
break in the rain overnight tonight before the next wave moves in
Saturday morning. Again on Saturday the best chance for widespread
rain coverage will be east of I-65 with more scattered coverage the
further west you go. Temperatures Saturday will be even chillier
than today, topping out only in the mid to upper 50s.

In addition to the rain and cool temperatures, it will be breezy
today and tomorrow. Sustained winds will be in the 10-15 mph range
with gusts to around 25.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2015

Well...the initial medium term forecast the eastern 1/2 of the CWA
will still be dealing with the influence of a pesky closed upper
level low...before it pulls out off St Augustine FL on Sunday night
and then ridging commences for most of next week and before a
southern stream system pushes in at the very end of the
deep extended forecast.

The 00z deterministic models and NHC official forecast continue to
keep powerful category Hurricane Joaquin (935mb). This track for a
further out to sea scenario will allow this upper closed low to sag
southward into the Sunshine State and SE Peach State.  In response,
deep wrap around moisture will pull away and will be decreasing POPS
and cloud cover and NW to SE Sunday into Monday. Should be a steep
temperature gradient on Sunday from Srn IN (mix of clouds and sun)
to Lake Cumberland region (pesky stratocumulus clouds).

The upper level pattern becomes increasingly more zonal, will show
highs warming into the upper 70s to low 80s by mid-week, lows in the
55-60 range and a mostly dry forecast. System at the very end of
next week will bring increasing clouds, but dry forecast for now.


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2015

A surge in deeper moisture is bringing widespread light rain into
the TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Expect the low MVFR
ceilings to persist, along with reductions in visibility in the
heavier bouts of rain. This batch of rain should lift NW out of the
area this evening, with a relative lull overnight. Then, another
round of showers looks to approach later in the morning hours of
Saturday. The low ceilings should persist, with LEX possibly going
into IFR and staying there. Steady NE winds gusting up around 20-25
mph at time will persist.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....EER
Long Term......JDG
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