Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
613 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

As of 230am this morning, a very slow moving sfc cold front was
located along a line from roughly Lexington to Bowling Green. Light
patchy fog was observed on either side of the front. This boundary
will continue to slowly slide SE toward the TN border and eastern KY
throughout the morning hours settling on the KY/TN border or just to
our south by this afternoon. Light rain will continue along and on
either side of this front throughout the day. As the front continues
its slow track south, precip chances will become less over southern
IN and north central KY.  Actually did go with a dry POP for this
afternoon in those areas.  However, numerous patches of drizzle are
evident on radar imagery well north of the front and feel those
drizzly patches may replace measurable rain showers over southern IN
and portions of north central KY for at least part of the late
morning and afternoon hours.  High temps will be a challenge and
dependent on the exact location of the front today.  Most of
southern IN should stay locked into the upper 40s for highs. Central
KY temps should range from the lower 50s north to upper 50s near the
KY/TN border.

Tonight we`ll continue to see light to at times moderate precip
focused over south central KY closer to the frontal boundary.
Scattered showery activity will continue over southern IN/north
central KY with perhaps an uptick in rain showers during the latter
half of the night as a strong upper low induces cyclogenesis over
the Plains States and pulls better moisture northward.  There will
again be quite a bit of a temp gradient across the region with lows
in th eupper 30s/lower 40s across southern IN and north central KY,
and lows in the mid 40s to around 50 over portions of central and
southern KY.

Monday the low pressure system over the Plains will pull the
boundary back north through our region as a warm front.  This should
allow temps to warm ino the upper 50s/lower 60s across much of
central KY.  Southern IN will warm into the low to mid 50s.  Rain
chances will increase throughout the day Monday as the front
provides a better focus for rain showers.

Overall the area could see additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 1
inch today through Monday with the highest totals expected over
south central KY.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

Monday Night - Tuesday Night...

Monday night we`ll be in the warm sector of a strong low pressure
system moving into the western Great Lakes.  This will result in
mild temps with lows ranging mainly through the 50s Monday night.  A
cold front will approach the area late Monday night into Tues
morning bringing a round of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall
and perhaps some gusty winds.  Late Mon night through Tues morning,
we can expect to see an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall.
This burst of heavier rainfall on top of already saturated grounds
may cause some minor flooding issues.  Although mixing won`t be
ideal when the front pushes through the region due to time of day
and a widespread precip swath, still think winds could gust to 15-25
kts right along the front as it pushes through the region Tues
morning/early afternoon.  Also, soundings indicate good wind
profiles but no CAPE to work with at all, so will keep t-storms out
of the forecast.

The front will push through the region by early to mid afternoon
Tues clearing the area of precipitation by Tues evening.

Temps on Tues will likely remain steady or fall slightly with highs
in the 50s to low 60s being reached early in the day.

Tues night some low clouds will likely stick around for a while.
Depending on exact timing of clearing, low temps could be warmer or
colder than forecast.  Right now we`ll keep the cloud cover at
partly cloudy with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday - Saturday...

A dry period is in store for mid to late week under a wavy split
flow pattern.  We can expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies for
the latter half the week with temps near normal to slightly above
normal for this time of year.  While Wed highs will only reach the
mid 40s/lower 50s, a gradual warm up should put highs in the mid 50s
by Sat. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 30s.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 613 AM EST Sun Nov 29 2015

Fairly steady-state weather is expected during this TAF period as a
broad, weak surface frontal boundary sits just south of the TAF
sites and deep moisture continues to stream into the region.

At BWG ceilings will remain low-end IFR throughout the period, with
brief forays into LIFR certainly a possibility along with occasional
light rain. At SDF and LEX the light rain should come to an end, at
least temporarily,this morning, with IFR ceilings persisting through
the morning hours. Will go slightly on the optimistic side right now
and allow ceilings to lift to low-end MVFR heights this afternoon at
SDF and LEX, in agreement with model data and upstream observations.
Low ceilings will then return to SDF and LEX tonight as a stubborn
low level inversion lowers and moisture remains in place.

Although the SDF and LEX TAFs are mostly dry, there could
actually be some light rain and BR now and then. However it should
be light enough to not be significant compared to restrictions
brought on by low ceilings.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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