Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 212330
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A complex of showers and storms will slide to the ESE along a
surface boundary from southeast Missouri into the Tennessee Valley
this evening. These storms may graze the southwest corner of the
CWA, so will have to keep some PoPs going southwest through south of
Bowling Green. Weaker complex of showers moving from Iowa into
Illinois will weaken as it slips to the ESE. Its weakening plus dry
low level air should prevent precip from reaching the ground in the
LMK CWA.

Lows tonight will slip into the 28-32 degree range in southern
Indiana and the northern Blue Grass. After consulting with IND and
ILN, will issue a narrow Freeze Warning for those areas tonight.

High pressure sliding across the Great Lakes will supply us with
cool temperatures and dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Lows Wednesday night will be similar to tonight.

.Long Term (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The Great Lakes high will continue to move to the ESE late this week
with some ridging reaching back into the southeast United States,
keeping us dry. With the high off to our east, temperatures will
moderate and we`ll be back into the lower 70s by Friday afternoon.

Weakening low pressure will progress from the Ozarks Saturday
morning to north central Illinois Sunday morning and on to the Lake
Erie vicinity Monday morning. This system will bring widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region over the weekend,
especially Saturday night.

On Saturday the GFS/GEM/EC have slowed the progression of the
surface low and its associated convection, placing us squarely in
the warm sector of the system. As a result, we went above guidance
for highs Saturday afternoon well into the 70s.

The surface trof that the weekend low traveled along will still be
in place early next week, with another low following roughly the
same path Monday-Tuesday bringing us additional showers and
scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s should continue.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Broken mid-level clouds will persist into the early morning hours of
Wednesday, but all three terminals should remain dry and VFR.
Northerly winds around 10 kts are expected overnight. This northerly
flow will pump in cooler, drier air overnight as surface high
pressure sinks southeast over the western Great Lakes. Clouds will
begin scattering out before dawn. Wednesday looks cool and quiet,
with just scattered high clouds at times. During the day, surface
winds will gradually turn northeasterly around 10-12 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ031>037-
     042-043.

IN...Freeze Warning from 5 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ076>079-
     092.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........EBW



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