Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 130517
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
117 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
First, plan on cancelling the Wind Advisory before the afternoon
package goes out. Winds are still strong but below criteria across
the CWA. The wind should continue to decrease through the overnight
hours. High pressure will build into the region on the northwest
flow. This will slowly decrease winds overnight and plummet
temperatures into the teens north and east to the mid to lower 20s
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
A warm front will move through the area early Friday bringing above
normal temperatures back to the region. Friday night an upper level
short wave will swing through possibly resulting in some very light
and cold rain. However, the latest model runs are starting to
indicate less of a chance of restrict the chance to the north. Will
make that call closer to press time. Now Saturday we will be between
a system to our north and another to our south. The GFS still keeps
QPF painted over the area, however the SREF...NAM...ECMWF keep us
dry during the day. Then the consensus for rain increases Saturday
night. Albeit very low QPF amounts expected. Sunday now appears to
be the best chance of rain this weekend. Still low QPF for Sunday.
Models are not in total agreement with timing on Sunday. Thus, will
allow differences to work themselves out with that. It will likely
yield low pops but over an extended period due to the difference in
timing of the models and residual grids. The forecast appears to be
dry early next week. However, we do have a cold front poised to move
through Wednesday. This may result in at least some low POPs for mid
Temps will rebound to near normal Thursday to much above normal
Friday. Over the weekend looks to be nearly normal temps then warming
slightly as we head into next week.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014
Ceilings, while still MVFR at BWG, will lift and become VFR by 07z,
and will scatter out by around 10 to 11z. Broken ceilings at SDF
have already risen above the MVFR threshold and will tend to scatter
out towards 08z.
Clear to partly cloudy skies will develop by mid morning and will
continue through the rest of the TAF period with no expected
obstructions to visibilities.
Northwest winds will continue through the early morning hours at
around 10kt at LEX and SDF, and will stay a bit less than that at
BWG. By noon, winds will lessen and become westerly at around 5 to
7kts before turning to the south by this evening. By late this
evening, a brisk southwesterly flow will develop right above the
boundary layer. This will bring a threat of marginal low level shear
towards 06z Friday as southwest winds at 2k feet will increase
towards 35 to 40kt. Towards 12z at SDF, south southwest winds will
increase to 10 to 12kt.