Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 180514

114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.




Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.