Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 211826

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

High pressure drifting from the lower Ohio Valley to New England will
provide us with dry, pleasant summer weather into mid-week. Dew
points will be in the 50s to around 60, with afternoon highs in the
80s. We can expect plenty of sun during the day and starry skies at
night before clouds begin to increase west-to-east Tuesday night.

The incoming dry air should prevent fog formation Monday morning
outside of sheltered river valleys.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A cold front stretching from the Minnesota arrowhead to the Texas
panhandle at the start of the period will push to the east,
weakening significantly by the time it arrives in the Ohio Valley
Thursday afternoon/night. Upper ridging will hold sway over the
southeast United States, 7H temperatures will be around 10C, and mid-
level lapse rates will be weak. Not much moisture either. So, just
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected,
especially in a band along the frontal zone itself. The best chance
for thunder will be over southern Indiana Thursday afternoon.

Will go with a dry forecast for this weekend as high pressure
returns to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ECMWF does show a
weakness in the high over the Ohio River Sunday that produces a few
showers, so will have to keep an eye on that. Afternoon highs will
be near normal in the 80s with slightly warmer than normal nighttime


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions and W-NW winds are established behind the departing
cold front, and for the afternoon we expect flat and thinning
diurnal cu, with winds just shy of 10 kt. Cool air is the deepest at
SDF, so could see some gusts around 15 kt there.

Skies will clear and boundary layer will decouple after sunset.
However, dry air should be well enough in place to preclude any
significant fog formation. Will keep it VFR through the valid TAF
period. Winds at SDF and LEX on Monday will remain light/variable,
while BWG starts to pick up a light east wind on the periphery of
the surface high.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
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