Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 162034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
334 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low clouds over southern IN/north central KY are slowly eroding
this afternoon and will continue to do so through the evening hours.
Only partly cloudy skies are expected after midnight.  While some
light patchy fog isn`t out of the question late tonight into
tomorrow morning, think that the atmosphere will be a little too
mixy in lower levels to see much if any.  Low temps tonight should
range through the upper 20s and lower 30s.

With sfc high pressure moving to the east Fri, we`ll enter a return
flow later in the day.  As a result expect partly cloudy skies with
temps warming into the 50s to around 60.

A strong cold front will approach the region Fri night with
precipitation chances increasing from N to S as the front
approaches.  As the front draws closer after midnight with increased
forcing and LLJ, chances for t-storms will increase over southern
Indiana/north central KY.  Some of the storms could become strong
with strong winds the main threat.  Outside of any t-storm, winds of
10-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph.  Temperatures Fri night will reach
a minimum early Fri night with temps warming during the late evening
and overnight hours. Lows should range from the mid 40s to lower 50s.


.Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

...Strong Winds Saturday through Saturday Night...
...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Saturday...


A strong cold front will push the area Sat.  Showers and storms will
be likely Sat ahead of and around the front.  While CAPE values look
to be in the 100-500 j/kg range, wind fields and strong frontal
forcing may produce strong, low topped storms Sat that will be
capable of producing strong to damaging winds.  T-storms should exit
the area by Sat evening with post-frontal rains expected Sat night.

Another big concern for Sat will be winds outside of any
showers/storms.  Winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph will be
common for much of the day Sat and into the evening hours.  Wind
gusts should peak during the evening hours with the fropa with gusts
to around 45 mph possible.  Winds will shift from SSW to WNW Sat
evening with the frontal passage.  A wind advy may be needed in
coming forecasts.  Winds should start to diminish late Sat night
into Sun morning.

With the WAA ahead of this front, high temps should range through
the 60s Sat.


Low clouds look to linger into much of Sun.  Temps look to fall back
into the upper 30s/lower 40s for highs in the colder post-frontal

Monday - Thursday...

The rest of the work week looks dry despite a number of model
solutions for mid week.  The GFS/GFS ensembles favor a dry cold
front for Wed which should bring another shot of cold air (40s for
highs Wed).  The ECMWF however does not and keeps the area warmer.
The official forecast sides more with a blend of models on the
cooler side for mid week.

At this point, Thanksgiving looks dry with high temps in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low level moisture trapped in the boundary layer under a stout
inversion has led to the persistent cloud cover all over the region
except south-central KY. The RAP seems to have a decent handle on
moisture profiles and overall setup based on observations and
satellite data, so the forecast is leaning toward its output.
Current thinking is that cloud cover will begin to break up some
this afternoon and lift above fuel-alternate levels, but expect BKN
MVFR ceilings for nearly all sites into the overnight hours. KBWG is
on the edge of the cloud deck/moisture, but will lean toward a more
optimistic forecast for them as recent satellite trends show the
strato-cu shield dissipating as it works southward.

Drier air will from the south will works its way into northern KY
and southern IN after midnight. Depending on the amount of clearing
we get, there could be some patchy fog that develops near TAF sites,
but confidence in this solution is low right now.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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